UNCERTAINTY THE OPERATIVE WORD AS PARLIAMENT SET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 002726 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015 TAGS: CA PGOV PREL SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY THE OPERATIVE WORD AS PARLIAMENT SET TO RESUME Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reason 1.4 (B) (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Canadian Parliament is scheduled to resume on September 27, amidst a political climate that is best defined by uncertainty. PM Martin has the option to prorogue Parliament, which would end the current session and reset the agenda by calling for a new session and an early confidence vote over the Throne Speech. This would buy him some time and leverage but would be very unpopular with many Canadians who want to see Parliament work. When the last session ended the Canadian public seemed ready to punish the Liberals over the corruption scandal, but without bringing in the Conservatives in the process. How deep the chastening process needs to go is not clear, but there are indications that many feel it has gone far enough. The Conservatives made no gains over the summer and the Liberals held their own, and may be banking on the possibility of starting fresh as a more humble party, ready to get down to business. It also didn't hurt that in the last session the Liberals, although struggling to survive, still chalked up a reasonable record of accomplishments along the way. ¶2. (C) As Parliament resumes, all energies will be focused on preparing for the next election, which PM Martin promised would be held 30 days after the release of the Gomery report, last scheduled for mid-December. A December-January election is unlikely, however, given weather conditions, and it is more likely that Martin will appeal for reason and set a date for an early spring election, something the opposition would be in no position to oppose beyond superficial protests for appearances sake. The Liberals will use that period to shore up their numbers, focusing on Quebec and Ontario, and barring any major missteps will probably continue to at least hold onto power as a minority government. The Conservative lack of traction is related both to the deficiency of a compelling agenda, and the absence of a leader that people outside of Western Canada can rally behind. Conservative MP James Moore believes the real problem with Stephen Harper is not just that he comes across stiff, but also as a Western figurehead who lacks the essential nationalist credentials that Canadians require of their Prime Ministers. With so much up in the air, the only certainty is that the next term, like last year, will be a wild ride. End Summary SESSION HIGHS AND LOWS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In purely legislative terms, the Parliamentary sitting from September to June was minimally successful. (Note: a session of Parliament does not technically end until it is prorogued or until an election is called, thus the current Liberal Government still sits as the First Session of the 38th Parliament, which will continue when Parliament resumes. End Note). The average number of bills introduced per session since September 1996 (when Parliament began compiling statistics) is 57, with a high of 88 bills for a two-year session in 1997 and a low of 37 in a two-month session. These were all majority governments. ¶4. (SBU) In the nine months of the current session, 34 of 60 bills introduced have passed, a credible number given the government's minority status. Critics pointed out that the overall quality of the bills passed was lackluster -- there were spending estimates, treaty obligations, and routine business, including the Competition Act, the Canadian Grain Act, and a bill on migratory birds, hardly the stuff of headlines. But government supporters pointed to the high-profile same-sex marriage bill, a hard-fought budget bill, and laws on mental disorders, the protection of children, and the veteran's charter as indicators that the government was not just marking time. ¶5. (C) If the session was a bit slow, it was largely because the Liberals spent a good deal of energy just trying to survive. From the Throne Speech in early October the Liberals went from being merely distracted as they tried to find their footing in a minority parliament, to full crisis mode as the Gomery inquiry into the Quebec advertising scandal put them fully on defense in the spring. But the Liberals proved adept at survival. Throughout the session Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri (the "Dark Prince of Parliamentary Procedure" according to the Hill Times) teamed up with 40-year veteran Senior Legislative Counsel Jerry Yanover to run circles around the Opposition -- canceling opposition days, cutting off debate through obscure tactics such as Time Allocation, and forcing unscheduled votes onto their schedule. ¶6. (C) The Liberals also bought public support by painting the Conservatives as in bed with the separatists, which was chilling at a time when separatism was again raising its ugly head (ironic, since revelations of the Liberal advertising sponsorship program sparked renewed separatist sentiment in the first place and the Liberals sought Bloc support for legislation whenever they needed it). Throughout the session the Liberals also looked for ways to chip away at the Conservative numbers, buying the defection of Conservative Belinda Stronach with a cabinet position, and welcoming that of Independent Chuck Cadman, whose constituents did not want to see an election so soon. Martin finally bought the support of the NDP by pushing through a budget amendment that was tailored to their core projects. All of this was shored up by PM Martin's direct appeal to the Canadian people in a televised address, in which he conceded blame, but promised to get to the bottom of it by continuing the Gomery inquiry and offered to call for an election 30 days after the release of the Gomery report. ¶7. (C) In the end the Liberals came within one vote of losing a confidence motion on May 19, but their survival bought them the summer to regroup. It was a fairly high price to pay for survival, but the Liberal's staying in power appeared to be in synch with the Canadian public's wish to punish the Grits without bringing the Tories into power. MR. DITHERS? -- MAYBE NOT -------------- ¶8. (C) PM Martin's leadership was repeatedly questioned during the session. His tendency to work on multiple issues without bringing any of them to closure earned him the title "Mr. Dithers." But according to Globe and Mail's Lawrence Martin the title may not be completely deserved. He points to the following accomplishments as evidence of a capable leader: -- Securing same-sex marriage legislation -- Cutting budget deal with the NDP -- Stealing Belinda Stronach -- Weathering the Gomery Inquiry -- Hiding from the Grewal Tape trap (in which a Conservative MP recorded conversations with senior Liberals attempting to buy his defection) -- Emerging with a ten-point lead over the Conservatives PM Martin has certainly held his own and is a force to be reckoned with for the opposition. WHAT'S NEXT? -------------- ¶9. (C) Parliament is set to resume on 27 September. A rumored early recall of Parliament to discuss the softwood lumber issue was probably never more than bluster to begin with and, in any event, in the wake of Katrina a recall to beat up on the U.S. would never happen. The more realistic question is whether PM Martin will prorogue Parliament, which ends the parliamentary session until a new session begins including a new Throne Speech. According to political analyst Bruce Campbell, a prorogation would have a number of advantages for the Liberals. First, it would give the government free advertising of its generally popular agenda through the Throne Speech, putting the Conservatives on the defensive in the process. Second, it would create a confidence vote at a time when the Liberals likely have the numbers to survive it, securing a mandate for them at the beginning of the term. Third, it would clear the parliamentary agenda "allowing any bills, motions, and references to committees which the government does not want to see proceed to 'die on the order paper." ¶10. (C) But this step would also be very unpopular with many Canadians, and would make the NDP, whose mantra is "making government work" livid. The Conservatives could also accuse the Liberals of ducking out at a time when gas prices are sky high and without dealing with the issues related to Ontario's economy that have been trumpeted by Premier McGuinty for the past year. If the PM decides to prorogue, the government could announce it in advance, or may simply do so when Parliament resumes. ¶11. (SBU) As Parliament drifts in, the numbers are as follows: Liberals 133 NDP 19 Independent Parrish 1 Total 153 (Speaker only votes to break a tie) Conservatives 98 Bloq Quebecois 54 Total 152 Undecided Independents 2 David Kilgour (former Liberal but voted against the government in last confidence vote because of frustration over Sudan) Pat O/Brien (former Liberal who left the caucus over same-sex marriage issue; voted against the Government in confidence vote) Vacant 1 Independent Chuck Cadman died in July Total 308 In any confidence vote the outcome would be in the hands of the independents. ¶12. (C) The political alignments in Parliament are constantly shifting and the parties will, like last year at this time, go into the session without clear partners. The NDP supported the Liberals through the last round of confidence votes, but made clear that its support was conditionally tied to the budget and would end when the budget bill was passed. The Bloc and Conservatives have been working in concert to bring the government down, but for wildly different reasons and with almost no shared social or political values. In any case, the Conservatives need to be careful not to get too close to the Bloc because it tarnishes their nationalist credentials. How these alignments will shift in the coming session is an open question. ELECTION COMING? -------------- ¶13. (C) In a sense, the next term will be one long election season. PM Martin promised to hold an election 30 days after the release of the Gomery commission final report on the sponsorship scandal. The problem is the report's release on December 15 would lead to an election in "deep winter," which would be very unpopular here. Despite his assurances that he will proceed as announced, the PM could easily get around this by suggesting a date as early as possible in the spring and asking the opposition parties for their support. ¶14. (C) Martin would most likely lead another minority government after the election. The Liberals have gained little ground in either Ontario or Quebec but nor have the Conservatives. One recent poll shows the Liberals regaining some support in Quebec, not but enough to increase their seats. What is helping the Liberals according to Bruce Campbell is the simple lack of traction on the part of the Conservatives. Campbell told Poloff that this is both policy and personality driven. The Conservatives tried to work both problems throughout the summer, but without success in the polls. They spent the first half of the summer trying to make Stephen Harper look more like the normal Canadian next door and less like a Western political wonk by putting him on the barbeque circuit, but largely struck out. In August they changed tactics and started to go to their traditional strength and showcase policies, but this also largely fell flat -- the two key issues of gas tax and child care resonated among the faithful but did not appear to pull in the fence sitters. CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? -------------- - ¶15. (C) The most recent Conservative issue, standing up to the U.S. on softwood lumber by revisiting the rules of the road in NAFTA and Canada's trade relations, could turn into a winner on the margins. It will help the Conservatives build in some distance from the U.S., and if they can massage the message as one of "free trade from a position of strength," it will help them. But no policy issue can overcome the aversion which Canadians in the East appear to have to Stephen Harper. Harper has simply not been able to break through to mainstream Canadians, especially in Ontario and Quebec, where he comes across as out of touch. There has been talk of party faithful convincing Harper to step down prior to an election, but analyst Campbell believes he will more likely ride out the next election, leaving the party to regroup after it loses. ¶16. (C) Conservative MP James Moore believes that Harper's problem is not just that he comes across aloof, wonky, and Western, but that he is lacking in essential nationalist credentials. What Canadians look for, Moore says, is a leader who epitomizes the nation of Canada, and has served in positions that are national, not regional. All recent leaders, Chretien, Trudeau, Martin, Mulroney, were seen as strong nationalists, who were associated with Canada, not a specific province. While Harper has had a national profile for the past several years, Moore believes that Canadians are still suspicious that his heart is still in the West. He believes the party will not succeed until Harper steps aside and another leader, such as Bernard Lord, takes the helm. ¶17. (SBU) As we predicted this time last year, once again Parliament is embarking on a largely uncharted journey, and it is sure to be one wild ride. Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa WILKINS