CANADIAN FORUM OF FEDERATIONS IRAQ TEAM ON THE NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 002380

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPT FOR POLICY PLANNING, DRL, NEA/NGA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2010
TAGS: PGOV EAID IZ PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN FORUM OF FEDERATIONS IRAQ TEAM ON THE NEW
CONSTITUTION


Classified By: POL/MC Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Former Canadian Deputy Minister for
Natural Resources George Anderson recently returned from Iraq
where he was an advisor to the constitutional committee as
part of a Forum of Federations team under contract with NDI.
He said that the Canadian International Development Agency
has given the Forum an additional CN $2 million for Iraq
programs, which it plans to use to bring Iraqi officials and
civic leaders to federation countries on study tours over the
next two and a half years. The Forum has also received
funding for similar programs in Sudan.


2. (C/NF) Anderson was surprised by the enthusiasm of those
working on the constitution and by the dynamism of civil
society in Iraq. He was cautiously optimistic at best about
the constitution itself, however, evincing concern about the
chaotic nature of the process, and with the uncertain
end-product. He doubted whether the current exercise would
settle the largest issues and could apply a model which is
simply dysfunctional. He believes that Britain's arrangement
with Scotland, though not technically a federation, may be
the best model for Iraq, with Spain being a second model
worth considering. The key for Anderson is an arrangement
which allows the Sunni-Shi'ite areas to be strongly governed
from Baghdad, while allowing the Kurds relative autonomy in
the north. Forcing one area to compromise its needs to meet
the needs of the other will not work; a form of "asymmetric
federalism" is what will be needed. End Summary

FORUM OF FEDERATION PROGRAMS IN IRAQ AND SUDAN
-------------- -


3. (C/NF) Poloff met August 4 with George Anderson, former
Assistant Deputy Minister for Natural Resources and a senior
member of the Forum of Federations. The Forum was started in
the late 1990s in the wake of the referendum over Quebec
sovereignty, as an independent organization that would build
ties with other federations to highlight the benefits of
federalism and improve the study of the federalist form of
government. Since that time it has become one of the
foremost venues in the world for federalist states to advance
their understanding of the practice, and has developed a
number of programs for sharing the experiences of federalist
states with nations in transition.


4. (C/NF) Anderson has recently returned from Iraq, where he
headed the Forum of Federation's constitutional team, under
contract to NDI to provide advisory support for the
Constitutional Committee. It sent several individuals for
various periods of time, to include former Ontario Premier
Bob Rae, and has one expert in Baghdad now. Anderson said
that in addition to NDI funding, the Forum has now received
CIDA funding of CN $2 million to stay involved in Iraq for
the next two and a half years. The Forum also hopes that
there will be additional NDI funding.


5. (C/NF) Anderson said that given the impossibly tight
security in Iraq, the Forum plans to focus its efforts on
funding study trips for Iraqis to Canada and other federation
countries, and producing educational materials that would
shore up understanding and support for the new constitution.
If the Iraqi constitution ends up creating a federation of
some sort, Anderson said that the Forum would be willing to
provide training and observation visits for groups of Iraqis
on such topics as comparative federalism, legal framework and
application of federalism, and management of the civil
service. It would also provide "train-the-trainer" courses
for Iraqis in government and NGOs. He said they were also
looking for local Iraqi NGOs to partner with in the various
regions to do administration of justice and other programs.
Federation programs are active in seven countries, and
Anderson said that they could set up study trips to multiple
locations or bring groups to Canada and pull in experts from
other countries
for programs here.


6. (C/NF) Anderson also mentioned that the Forum had received
funding from CIDA to do a similar program in Sudan. There it
hoped to find an easier work environment, and Forum officials
envisioned something closer to the project they directed in
South Africa, where teams were able to work for several
months in various parts of the country, instructing and
educating people about the merits of federalism.

FORUM EXPERTS ON THE IRAQI CONSTITUTION
--------------


7. (C/NF) Anderson said he was struck by the growing dynamism
of civil society in Iraq and was encouraged by the energy and
determination he saw among the Iraqis he worked with. He was
not sure the energy would eventually lead to something that
resembles a constitution as we know it, however, especially
on the issue of federalism. Anderson was struck by how
little understanding there was committee members of
federalism -- he said there was great difficulty even finding
a word in Arabic that could convey the concept. The
Committee Vice Chair claimed to accept it as something viable
for Iraq, but when pressed, Anderson said it was clear that
he hadn't really thought through what it meant or how to make
it work.


8. (C/NF) Anderson described the constitution drafting
process as very chaotic, and not something that was guided by
the normal systematic technical analysis which leads to the
isolation of issues and development of answers. He was also
concerned with the lack of transparency, and said that even
within the committee itself not everyone knew what everyone
else was doing. Anderson was also surprised that there was
no involvement by ministries and government technical
experts, which had been the case in all other constitutions
he has worked on.

WHAT MIGHT WORK?
--------------


9. (C/NF) The key to a successful constitution, Anderson
believes, is what the Kurds are willing to accept. It is a
given that they will allow treaties and foreign relations to
be conducted by the central government, but will they, for
example, integrate the Peshmerga into the national security
forces? He made reference to the Kurdish National Assembly's
vote that the National Army may not enter Kurdistan without
its approval as an example of how difficult this issue will
be. The Kurds, Anderson said, also want initial control of
resources and resource wealth, which will be problematic
because of Kirkuk. But he also believes that Baghdad can use
the fact that the oil reserves are outside Kurdistan proper
to force Kurdish compliance and bring them fully into the
fold. The power of the purse in this case, will be about all
the central government has.


10. (C/NF) Of possible models for Iraq from a federal
perspective, Anderson thinks that Spain or Britain would be
the most likely to succeed. Even though not technically a
federation, Anderson thought that the arrangement Britain has
with Scotland most closely resembles what he believes Iraq
will require with relation to Kurdistan. He does not believe
that the Sunni and Shi'ite areas are ready for any autonomy,
lacking both the technical capacity to govern their provinces
independent of Baghdad, and any real social cohesion. The
southern three provinces centered around Basra are the
closest to sharing the Kurd's capacity and penchant for self
government, but they are not there yet. He believes a
constitution that allows for those kinds of arrangements to
evolve over time might work, but for now a strong central
government for the center, west, and south, with strong
autonomy in the north, will be essential, and he thought,
workable.


11. (C/NF) Anderson said that he was not sure this kind of
model was being considered, and in fact, wasn't sure the
model that is being developed made sense. He saw the tough
issues being kicked down the road, which may allow the
flexibility to buy some time and still have a workable
outcome, but could also lead to a hardening of positions on
the ground. He fears things are headed in the direction of a
three state federation, a serious concern as an expert from
the federation reminded him that most 2-3 state federations
have had a "sad history." Finally, Anderson believes the
constitutional committee would have benefited from an
additional month or two to do its work. He understands the
urgency of meeting the deadline, but also is aware of the
difficulties which working through so many large issues so
rapidly is causing.


12. (C/NF) Comment: Anderson had a limited view of the
constitution but his perspective on federalism may be useful.
The Forum brings together individuals from all the world's
federations and are an excellent venue for considering
different models for nations in transition. They would
appear to put funding to good use in places like Iraq and
Sudan and could well serve as a useful partner for these
kinds of projects in the future.

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WILKINS