C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001607

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2009
TAGS: CA ET PREL KDEM PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: CANADIAN REACTIONS TO ETHIOPIAN POST-ELECTION
PERIOD

REF: SECSTATE 99185

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) POLMINCOUNS and POLOFF met May 27 with FAC Deputy
Director for Southern and Eastern Africa Stephen Moran and
Ethiopia Desk Officer Curtis Ajmani, to discuss post-election
Ethiopia and Sudan. On Sudan, Moran mentioned that Canada
has set up an interagency task force comprised of individuals
from CIDA, DND, FAC, and 2 Senators that would be a kind of
coordinating body for Canadian assistance and an advisory
body for the PMO. The Task Force is located away from the
FAC building, and is led by Ambassador Fowler. He said they
were still not sure what precise form Canada's aid would take
on the ground but noted that the AU force really needs
vehicles, radios, even basic infantry equipment to boost
their capabilities. Moran dismissed the recent public debate
about whether or not Canada should engage with robust ground
force as not particularly well informed. Their working
scenario all along has been to support the AU troops on the
ground logistically.


2. (C) Ajmani suggested that the basic issue with regards to
the Ethiopian elections is that after a very good turnout,
and reasonably fair balloting, all sides came out of the vote
claiming victory. Canada applauds and supports efforts by
the EU, US, and others to encourage dispute resolution
through the Election Board, but has held off making public
comments on the electoral process until the results are
announced and it becomes clearer how the various parties
conduct themselves. He understands there was to be re-voting
in some places this past weekend and believes the vote is
delayed in the Somali region until August. Almost all of the
urban-based ministers lost their seats and much depends on
whether or not the opposition receives 1/3 of the total
seats, which would give them veto power over major
legislation. To date statements by the government and the
opposition parties have been relatively moderate, and the
longer the quiet holds, the better the chances for a
peaceful, democratic outcome.


3. (C) There is also concern with regards to how the
inexperienced opposition will govern the cities it has won.
As the June 8 date for the announcement of election results
approaches, Moran said that Canada would support an extension
of the mandate for the Carter Center and the EU election
monitoring group. The foreign monitors and center have done
a very good job to date of validating the process and their
continued presence adds credibility to the process in the
post-election period as alleged irregularities are sorted
out. Ajmani said that Canada's Ambassador in Ethiopia is
also in touch with the opposition and believes they would be
susceptible to outside influence if it becomes necessary.
They are not, he said, all politically naive, and he believes
they are aware of Ethiopia's heavy reliance on foreign aid.
Ethiopia continues to be a major recipient of Canadian aid,
and is one of it strategic partners for aid. Canada was the
fourth largest donor in the elections.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

DICKSON