GOI TURNING PESSIMISTS ON NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009750 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2015 TAGS: PREL KDEM PTER MASS IN NP CH SUBJECT: GOI TURNING PESSIMISTS ON NEPAL REF: NEW DELHI 9484 Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary. GOI officials told us on December 27 that developments in Kathmandu since Foreign Secretary Saran's early December visit have made them less hopeful of a resolution any time soon to the continued political stalemate in Nepal. Hardening of the positions of both the Palace and the political parties makes reconciliation difficult, and the GOI fears that the Maoist cease-fire may not be extended past January 3. The GOI intends to maintain for now its embargo on lethal military supplies, and does not expect to revisit the issue until after the February 8 local elections. End Summary. Palace Not Budging -------------- ¶2. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (North) Pankaj Saran told A/DCM and Poloff that despite FS Saran's "frank" conversation with King Gyanendra on December 13 and the monarch's vague reassurances (reftel) that he would take helpful steps in the near future, recent signs from Kathmandu suggest that the Palace has not taken New Delhi's message to heart. The FS told Gyanendra that India is not opposed to monarchy, but wants to assist Gyanendra in preserving the institution. For this, the King must take the initiative back from the Maoists and political parties by offering a political solution to the current stalemate, the J/S reported. FS Saran had told the King that he cannot afford to play politics at the same level as the parties and the Maoists if he wishes to retain his position, but rather must rise above politics and lead in finding a solution. ¶3. (C) Unfortunately, J/S Saran continued, since that audience, Council of Ministers Vice-chairman Tulsi Giri gave a "hard-line and unhelpful" press conference that "ruled out any settlement" with the political parties. One of the vice-chairs (NFI) had also told the GOI that the RNA "has broken the backs of the Maoists," suggesting HMGN feels little pressure to compromise. Saran added that the GOI certainly does not share that "dangerous assumption." And Other Positions Solidifying -------------- ¶4. (C) After Giri's public rejection of the idea that the King would reach out, Maoist leaders Prachanda and Bhattarai then laid out a plan of action for continuing their anti-monarchy campaign, Saran said, followed by the recent �00A;combined political party statement of plans to "disrupt" and "boycott" the Palace-sponsored municipal elections in February 2006. The back-and-forth has led to a palpable "increase of the political temperature" in Kathmandu that is not conducive to the reconciliation scenario the GOI would like to see between the Palace and the political parties. GOI Sticking to its Guns -------------- ¶5. (C) New Delhi has no plans to review its suspension of lethal military assistance, Saran said, and still believes that "some initiative by the monarch" could help reconcile the monarchy and the political parties to form a united front against the Maoists. Although India will have to see what happens through the "political jostling" among all three sides to the tussle leading up to the municipal elections on February 8, it is important to continue the present policies at least until then, he added. Referring to a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed by Robert Kaplan, Saran expressed worry about the prospect that the US could soften its line on military assistance. A/DCM noted our clear signals to the Palace that Nepal needs to move back towards democracy if we are to normalize our military assistance relationship. ¶6. (C) What happens next will depend on whether the political parties can translate their goals into a show of support on the ground, Saran predicted. If they can prove that they represent the wishes of the people of Nepal, that will make a powerful statement to the government in favor of re-establishing democracy, he said. The GOI has told the political parties to avoid violence in its campaigns, but New Delhi does not yet know how the parties plan to deal with the elections, Saran added. The municipal elections are only planned in 58 municipalities in any case, and thus will not be a good indicator of what the rural population thinks, he observed. He was unsure whether the GOI would offer any comment on the polls. Uncertainty on Maoist cease-fire -------------- ¶7. (C) Saran said that New Delhi has "some indications" that the Maoists may be unwilling to renew their voluntary cease-fire when it expires on January 3. Additionally, the King's ministers have made public statements rubbishing the idea of a government cease-fire, although India has pointed out that such a move would help seize the initiative, Saran reported. New Delhi remains concerned about Maoist intentions, he continued, adding that "the objective of our Nepal policy" is dealing with the Maoist threat, particularly in light of official concern about collaboration between Nepalese Maoists and Indian insurgents. China Card is Ineffective -------------- ¶8. (C) Although the Indian Parliament has discussed the "China issue," both India and China realize that none will gain from a game of influence in Nepal, Saran said. The Foreign Secretary told HMGN that there is no gain from playing either the China or Pakistan card, although it has been hyped in the media, Saran added. He expected the Foreign Secretary to reiterate this view when he travels to Beijing in early January for border talks. Comment: Still Focused on the Big Picture -------------- ¶9. (C) Saran's comments, although pessimistic on the potential for the Palace to change course, included welcome reassurances that the GOI has not lost sight of the continued threat of a Maoist resurgence even while tacitly condoning the current political party-Maoist alignment. To New Delhi, the juxtaposition of royal reassurances to the Foreign Secretary of imminent positive steps, followed by negative SIPDIS signs and statements from Kathmandu, looks like a repeat of Gyanendra's about-face after meeting PM Singh in Jakarta last April. Skepticism in New Delhi is now entrenched even among earlier supporters of the Palace, and there are few voices calling for Indian backing of the monarchy. ¶10. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) BLAKE