INDIA WILL TAKE STOCK OF IRAQ OPTIONS AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 009223 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2015 TAGS: PREL KDEM PINR IN IZ SUBJECT: INDIA WILL TAKE STOCK OF IRAQ OPTIONS AFTER ELECTIONS (C-NE5-00945) REF: A. STATE 220728 ¶B. STATE 218793 ¶C. NEW DELHI 8627 ¶D. NEW DELHI 8535 Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: PolCouns shared Ref A points with MEA Joint Secretary (Gulf) Sanjay Singh on December 7, continuing a SIPDIS December 6 discussion on India's objectives and perspectives in the Middle East (septel). New Delhi is waiting to see the outcome of the December polls in Iraq before deciding on its next steps with Baghdad, but would probably send a delegation to Baghdad after the formation of a new government, and hopes to restart discussions on cooperation in the oil industry. Although the oil voucher scam dominates discussion of Iraq, New Delhi recognizes the need to engage the new Iraqi government and contribute to its success. Singh was surprisingly positive in his assessment of the upcoming elections, echoing public comments by GOI Middle East Envoy C Gharekhan welcoming the December 15 polls as "leading to the formation of a truly representative government." End Summary. Elections Signal More "Normal" Politics -------------- ¶2. (C) Singh welcomed the December 15 elections, commenting that after a period of "extraordinary" events in Iraq, the polls signify that politics is "becoming a normal process" now. However, to observers like him in New Delhi, the outcome is a mystery, he admitted, adding that the GOI will wait and "take stock" of the new government after the elections. Both Singh and Indian West Asia Envoy C Gharekhan would likely visit Baghdad after the formation of a government post-elections, he predicted, but uncertainty in the election outcome could delay such a visit. Singh's comments echoed remarks by Gharekhan at the Gulf Security Conference in Bahrain on December 4, where he said that the December 15 elections would "lead to the formation of a truly representative government." ¶3. (C) Iraqi Oil Minister Mohammad Bahr al-Ulum's decision to join a new party likely will lead to a new Oil Minister in the new government, Singh speculated. While this would delay New Delhi's plans to reconstitute the Indo-Iraq Joint Commission to discuss Indian participation in the Iraqi oil industry (Ref C),it may prove beneficial as it means a chance that the GOI would deal with only one oil minister for the next four years. India's Ministry of Petroleum maintains contacts with Iraq's Oil Ministry, and has arranged spot purchases of the limited Iraqi oil that comes up for sale, Singh said. "We'd like to get back" to the pre-2000 situation where India was one of Iraq's largest oil purchasers, he added. Indian Training Underway -------------- ¶4. (C) India has assistance programs underway in the form of technical training for workers in Iraq's oil sector, Singh reported, at a program cost of approximately $545,000 to $650,000. Two hundred Iraqi trainees will enroll in the next five months in programs across India in subjects as varied as oil field management, environmental protection, compressor maintenance, and logistics management. After PolCouns asked whether India would replicate its parliamentary assistance to Afghanistan, Singh replied that New Delhi has no roadmap for assistance, but is ready to respond to Iraqi requests, drawing from India's untapped assistance fund. After the elections, he mused, the Iraqi government should have more capacity to look outside and consider such assistance programs. Oil Vouchers Team in Baghdad -------------- ¶5. (C) Singh conveyed a GOI request (originally made by the Foreign Secretary) that the USG facilitate the visit to Baghdad (starting December 7) of a team from India's Enforcement Directorate probing alleged involvement of Indian politicians in taking oil allocations from Saddam's regime. He remarked that MEA was staying as far away as possible from the Oil-for-Food scandal. Comment: Post-Natwar, New Delhi Ready To Make Up -------------- --- ¶6. (C) Singh's deliberate repetition of New Delhi's view that the polls will be part of "normal" politics signals the GOI's desire to recover from disgraced FM Natwar Singh's blast that Iraq's government had no credibility (Ref D),and suggests that New Delhi will be supportive of the new Iraqi government post-December 15. Although he made no specific commitment to a GOI public statement following the elections, we expect the GOI will do so, building on its welcome of the October constitutional referendum. However, the Natwar scandal continues to overshadow all discussion of Iraq in New Delhi, and has already forced the postponement of Gharekhan's visit to Baghdad earlier this fall. Nevertheless, strategic thinkers in the MEA and GOI recognize that India's long-term interests are well-served by engagement with the new Iraqi government, and we anticipate that after the oil scam blows over, New Delhi will rise to the challenge and seek the occasion for a meaningful contribution to Iraq's reconstruction and recovery. ¶7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD