INDIA DOUBTS NEPALESE MAOIST/POLITICAL PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008845 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV MOPS ECON IN NP SUBJECT: INDIA DOUBTS NEPALESE MAOIST/POLITICAL PARTY BREAKTHROUGH, WELCOMES U.S. PRESSURE ON KING REF: NEW DELHI 8750 Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Recent press reports of a breakthrough between Nepalese Maoists and political parties are not true, outgoing MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae insisted on November 22, acknowledging nonetheless that the two sides have met in Delhi to discuss a solution to the ongoing crisis. Rae told PolCouns and PolOff that observers in Nepal perceive a growing gap between Indian and US strategies and that our position articulated in Kathmandu is tilting in favor of the King; in this context, he strongly welcomed Ambassador Moriarty's November 16 comments in Dehli. PolCouns reaffirmed our position that the King must work with the political parties to find a democratic solution and laid out Ambassador Moriarty's strategy to achieve this (Reftel). Rae welcomed the U.S. initiative for a cease-fire and noted that any settlement will undoubtedly require conversations between the Maoist and the parties. He commented that leaders of the Nepalese political parties who visited Delhi recently insisted to the GOI that the Maoists are looking for a political solution. Rae reiterated that a Maoist victory was unacceptable to India and that any strategy employed in Nepal must ensure that the parties emerge as the strongest player vis-a-vis the Palace and Maoists. End Summary. No Shift in US Policy -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting to introduce new MEA Joint Secretary (North) Prakaj Saran to PolCouns, Rae discounted press reports claiming that recent discussions between the Maoists, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), Nepali Congress Party and other political parties would soon lead to a breakthrough. He also expressed concern about sentiments in Kathmandu that the US was siding with the palace, which some have cited to suggest there is a growing gap between US and Indian positions. PolCouns indicated that Ambassador Moriarty's November 16 visit and public statements were made specifically to dispel these rumors. Rae welcomed the fact that the US was not changing its position on the need for action by the King to reach out to the parties. Dialogue The Only Solution -------------- ¶3. (C) Rae acknowledged that discussions between the political parties and Maoists have occurred in New Delhi, arguing that an overall political settlement will only be possible through dialogue that includes the Maoists. "We do not want to do anything that will overly empower the Maoists because we know what these terrorists do," Rae added. However, he warned that we should not expect to reach a political solution in Nepal without their involvement, and noted that Nepali Congress President Girga Prasad Koirala during his recent visits to Delhi insisted the Maoists were ready to negotiate in good faith. Rae reiterated New Delhi's view that the Maoists must be shown that they cannot win militarily, and that we must bring them into the mainstream. There are two tracks that we can take, Rae claimed; the first is through informal exchanges with the Maoists, and the second, through interactions with the King. Talks with the palace have not been fruitful so far, he elaborated, but India intends to continue to pressure the King to return to multi-party democracy. Parties Remain Weak -------------- ¶4. (C) Rae observed that, while the political parties are important, they are the weakest leg of the "triangle." The Maoists and the palace currently hold the two keys needed to find a political solution, because each has an armed force. He asserted that, ultimately, the political parties must be the strongest link and that any strategy used must strengthen them vis-a-vis the other two players. He reiterated that a Maoist victory was unacceptable to the GOI and the only durable solution remained with the parties. Hoping for a Cease-Fire -------------- ¶5. (C) PolCouns laid out Ambassador Moriarty's strategy on pressing the Palace and the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) to adopt a cease-fire as a way to regain the political initiative (Reftel). Rae agreed that a cease-fire would be a good idea and could pave the way for the political parties to return to the countryside. Noting reports that the RNA used the latest cease-fire to kill more Maoists, he regretted that the palace did not reciprocate the halt in military action. Rae commented that it would be beneficial if the King could be persuaded to be part of a cease-fire and that such an act would demonstrate that the King is truly dedicated to peace. ¶6. (C) Rae concluded that he and his replacement Prakaj Saran will visit Nepal in the coming weeks and suggested this would provide a venue for the GOI to build on the Prime Minister's message to the King in Dhaka about moving back to democracy. BLAKE