THE COMMUNISTS THREATEN THE UPA AGAIN OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 008711

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL IN IR
SUBJECT: THE COMMUNISTS THREATEN THE UPA AGAIN OVER
UPCOMING IAEA VOTE

REF: NEW DELHI 8681

Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (U) While addressing campaign meetings in Kerala on
November 15 Communist Party of India (Marxist) General
Secretary Prakash Karat and Communist Party of India (CPI)

SIPDIS
General Secretary AB Bardhan demanded that the GOI change its
stance in the IAEA regarding Iran's nuclear program. Both
men asserted that their parties would not "stand aside" on
this issue and would oppose any GOI vote to refer Iran's
nuclear program to the UNSC, and called on Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh to declare the GOI position before the
November 24 IAEA meeting. Stating that India voted against
Iran on September 24 only because of US pressure, Karat and
Bardhan demanded that the GOI "repent" and "correct its
stand" or "face the consequences." They confirmed that if
the GOI again voted against Iran, the Communists and their
regional party supporters would raise the issue in
Parliament, but they refused to specify what else the Left
was prepared to do. They expressed willingness to meet the
PM in his capacity as Foreign Minister to discuss the
upcoming vote in hopes of arriving at a consensus.


2. (U) This further salvo came as Iran reportedly canceled
the scheduled visit to Delhi (reftel) by Deputy Foreign
Minister Mehdi Safari.

Comment - The Left on a Roll
--------------


3. (C) The Communists have determined that the IAEA vote is
a win-win issue for them, and seem determined to use it
against the UPA. While they are unwilling to bring down the
government, the Left repeatedly reminds the UPA that it does
not enjoy a parliamentary majority and rules only with the
Left's acquiescence. The Left Front (LF) is also crafting a
loose coalition of regional parties willing to support it on
the IAEA vote and other issues. The intent is to so isolate
Congress, that it will feel compelled to back down. By
bringing up the prospect of Left Front/Congress talks, the
Communists are leaving the door open for Congress to take a
face-saving way out of its dilemma. Should Congress decide
on that option, the LF will trumpet the UPA turnaround as a
major achievement and a sign of their growing clout. We keep
urging the GOI to act again in their best national interest,
just as it did in September on Iran at the IAEA Board of
Governors Meeting. We are confident at this point that our
concerns are being heard and that the Prime Minister has not
yet decided how India will vote, if it comes to that, on
November 24.
BLAKE