INDO-PAK "DISASTER DIPLOMACY" SOFTENING BORDERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008120 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ECPS PBTS IN PK INDO PAK SUBJECT: INDO-PAK "DISASTER DIPLOMACY" SOFTENING BORDERS (BUT NOT POLITICS) REF: A. NEW DELHI 8073 ¶B. NEW DELHI 7990 Classified By: Charge Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Terrorism aside (Ref A),the diplomatic vibes of disaster diplomacy are resonating well in India. The GOI warmly welcomed Musharraf's October 18 decision to permit "any amount" of Kashmiris from J&K to cross the LoC into Pakistani Kashmir to assist with earthquake reconstruction and meet their relatives. Some Indian Kashmiris are now preparing to cross over to join relief workers, while others have already begun crossing the Neelam River on quake-created bridges. New phone services linking Kashmiris are also widely hailed for further expanding people-to-people interaction. As much as diplomacy is boosted, however, the GOI continues to investigate the October 18 terrorist attack on a secure VIP residential enclosure, and domestic partisan maneuvering continues unabated -- although Kashmiris insist that relief should come first, and political jockeying should wait. Amid the destruction, the PM is using the quake to advance his vision of a "soft" LoC, which Kashmiris are also embracing, and which promises a chance for more normalized relations down the road. End Summary. Freer Movement Across the LoC -------------- ¶2. (C) The GOI was upbeat over Musharraf's announcement of softening the LoC to allow freer travel by Indian Kashmiris into Pakistani Kashmir, including opening more cross-LoC transportation routes. MEA Spokesman Navtej Sarna, in the GOI's quick and positive reply to the initial news of the announcement, noted that the move built upon PM Singh's "advocacy of greater movement across the LoC," although he admitted that "practical details" remain to be solved. He also reminded journalists of the GOI's offer earlier this year to create with the GOP special zones along the LoC for divided families to meet. PDP President Mehbooba Mufti said separately that her party is "ready to move fast on cross-border assistance" and Editor of the Urdu-language weekly "Chattan" Tahir Mohiuddin told us that Musharraf's declaration was "welcomed by all." Creative Kashmiris Already Voting with Their Feet -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Mehbooba, damage along the Neelam River 
is facilitating cross-LoC travel. The earthquake dislodged boulders that fell into the river, and are now being used by villagers -- apparently unopposed by security forces on either side -- as a literal bridge across the LoC. Can You Hear Me Now? -------------- ¶4. (C) In response to moderate separatist leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq's call for telephone connectivity across the LoC (which had been "switched off" since 1991),PM Singh on October 18 directed the Department of Telecommunications to set up four Telecom Facilitation Centers in Srinagar, Jammu, Uri, and Tangdhar, to allow Indian Kashmiris to contact their relatives in Pakistani Kashmir starting from October 19. For the first two weeks, the phone calls will be free of charge. All four centers are located in or near police facilities, apparently to better protect them against possible terrorist attacks. A top GOI contact told us this was a personal decision of the PM. The several Hurriyat members who talked to us after these centers became operational hailed them. Our contacts in Srinagar report that, for now, the centers only offer trunk calls that need to be booked in advance. ¶5. (C) Musharraf's statement that mobile phone service will be allowed in and out of Pakistani Kashmir will also improve the diplomatic vibes. Many Indians already rely on mobile phones, and the damage to telephone cables in Kashmir will make mobile phone service a more immediate link than awaiting restoration of landline service. Home Secretary Reviewing Security -------------- ¶6. (U) Home Secretary VK Duggal is in J&K October 19, reviewing security in the wake of the October 18 terrorist attack on a secure VIP residential compound. Before his departure, Duggal told reporters that J&K police and Indian intelligence services continue their investigations and would examine al-Mansoorian's claim of responsibility. Domestic Politics Remains Virtually Unchanged -------------- ¶7. (C) Press speculation continues unabated on whether the earthquake and its aftermath would allow PDP Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed to stay in place, or if he will vacate his position in November as planned under the PDP-Congress election pact. However, Gandhi family confidante Wajahat Habibullah (strictly protect) on October 19 told us that Congress leader Sonia Gandhi responded curtly when he briefed her on J&K Finance Minister Muzzafar Beg's lobbying on Mufti's behalf: "What has Mufti done for the nation, or the Congress Party" was her response. Habibullah explained that Mrs. Gandhi continued to hold a grudge against Mufti for his decision to abandon Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 and support the VP Singh government (1989-1990). "She is very Italian," Habibullah commented, noting the long memory Mrs. Gandhi has for those who cross her family. In the meantime, the uncertainty over the transfer of power in Srinagar keeps the rumor mill producing at full steam. ¶8. (C) On a positive note, National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah told us that most Kashmiris have put politics aside to help with relief work. Abdullah and Mehbooba each thanked us for USG aid that is arriving through NGOs, although Abdullah also denounced the GOI policy of refusing direct bilateral assistance as "stupid." Observations of Quake's Long-Term Impact -------------- ¶9. (C) Habibullah also shared with us his judgment that the earthquake will cause more political and social change on the Pakistani side of Kashmir than on the Indian side. He noted that the Indian sectors hardest hit, Uri and Tangdghar, were already predominately Indian Army-run areas where civil authority was largely inactive and ineffective and the state government maintained a minimal presence (which is why the Army has the lead on relief and reconstruction). Habibullah predicted that the quake would have a more dramatic long-term impact on Pakistani Kashmir. Comment: Plus Ca Change ... -------------- ¶10. (C) It is perhaps axiomatic in Indian (and broader South Asian) politics that disaster brings together those most closely affected, while those who are able to view the damage from the distance of Delhi remain focused on their own political calculations. We would not be surprised to see a rush of Kashmiri politicians cross the border to offer assistance, following the trail blazed by Kashmiri separatist leader Yasin Malik (Ref B). They do so out of a genuine desire to help, but also with their telegenic side to the camera, because peace is also still good for votes. Although it is early to predict how this will play out, there is a widespread sense here in Delhi that aside from its geologic impact, the earthquake is shifting the political ground underneath the Kashmir issue. The PM is using the earthquake to advance his vision of an increasingly permeable LoC that ceases to be the central issue of the dispute. Kashmiris themselves have enthusiastically embraced this vision, providing a window of opportunity for future progress toward normalization of life across the erstwhile state of J&K. BLAKE