RAJASTHAN PROVIDES NO LET-UP IN UNRELENTING BAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008054

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV ECON SCUL PINR IN
SUBJECT: RAJASTHAN PROVIDES NO LET-UP IN UNRELENTING BAD
NEWS FOR THE BJP

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Rajasthan has joined a long list of places
where BJP fortunes are on the wane. Vasundhara Raje pulled
off a stunning upset victory to become Chief Minister in 2003
and many thought her administration would be one of the rare
"success stories" for the embattled BJP. However, her party
is deeply divided, her opponents are plotting against her,
and she has proven to be an ineffective administrator facing
allegations of misrule and corruption. This has prompted
growing speculation that the BJP may remove her and install a
new Chief Minister closer to the RSS. With the BJP's
fortunes on the decline in Rajasthan, even such a radical
move may not stave off defeat in the next election scheduled
for 2007. End Summary.

All-pervading Factionalism
--------------


2. (U) Reflecting the national trend, there is a growing
divide in the Rajasthan BJP between RSS and non-RSS factions.
A public letter written by Chandraj Singhvi, a leading
politician and an architect of Raje's upset victory in 2003,
recently complained that non-RSS party members were being
given "step-motherly treatment" in Rajasthan, and accused the
BJP of placing only Sangh-Parivar members in important
positions. Singhvi predicted that this course would lead to
"decades" of defeat for the BJP.


3. (U) On October 6, Education Minister Ghanshyam Tiwari and
Industries Minister Narpat Singh Rajvi openly revolted
against Raje, accusing her of heavy-handedness and implying
that her administration encouraged corruption. They
complained of a "lack of transparency" in the approval of
major industrial development projects such as the World Trade
Park and several Special Economic Zones (SEZ's). Rajasthan
recently awarded 1,000 acres of land to Mahindra and Mahindra
for a "technology corridor," and Tiwari asserted that Raje
took the land from farmers in his constituency without
adequate payment, and without first consulting the cabinet.

Tales of Woe
--------------


4. (C) During Poloff's October 6-7 visit to Jaipur,
journalists and politicians confirmed that all was not well
with the BJP in the state. Rohit Parihar of "India Today"
described how Rajasthani Media has linked close Raje
associates, including a state Cabinet Minister, to well-known
prostitutes/dancing girls. Parihar confirmed that the
growing split between RSS and non-RSS factions was encouraged
by Raje's long-term rival Murli Manohar Joshi. Raje was also
stung by the negative media coverage following the revelation
of the total disappearance of tigers from the Rathambore game
reserve, and her centralization of excise duty collection has
led to falling revenues and growing corruption allegations.


5. (C) Education Minister Tiwari complained to Poloff that
tens of millions of rupees were disappearing, the "technology
corridor" was a land giveaway, and that Raje has padded her
cabinet with the "worst" politicians in the state. Tiwari
predicted that Joshi will become BJP President in December
and remove Raje. He explained that with the Congress
opposition weak and divided, the BJP has descended into
factionalism and corruption and that Joshi will have to
"clean house."

Coup Plotting
--------------


6. (C) BJP leader and MLA Vishwa Modi confided that he is
secretly plotting with fellow MLA's from the BJP and Congress

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to form a new regional party to capture power. Modi claimed
that most MLA's are unhappy with Congress and BJP "meddling,"
although the BJP is the "worst party in the state," because
of its dominance by "RSS idiots" with no administrative
ability. The new party would renounce Hindutva and actively
recruit Muslims, Hindus, and Dalits to construct a stable
coalition capable of winning and holding power. He predicted
that if nothing is done, the BJP would disintegrate and
Congress return in the next election.

Bio Notes
--------------


7. (C) Tiwari openly told Poloff that he intends to replace
Raje as Chief Minister. He is a devout Brahmin, in a state
where his caste is not influential, and sees himself as a
natural mediator between contentious castes. Tiwari is close
to the RSS and actively promotes Hindutva and is counting on
Joshi's patronage to put him in power. He predicted that
Raje would be given a BJP management position in New Delhi,
possibly as General Secretary.


8. (C) MLA Modi, who inherited a large marble business, is
very wealthy and ambitious. He defected from Congress to
help Raje devise a winning strategy in 2003, and expected her
to name him to the Cabinet. Disappointed, he is now plotting
against her and Tiwari. He is still very close to Congress
and believes his followers in the BJP and Congress will make
him Chief Minister.


9. (C) Raje is extremely religious and spends days at a time
worshipping at a favorite temple in rural Rajasthan, where
she is devoted to the deity (murti) there. Despite this, she
resents the RSS and relates well with Muslims and Christians.
Raje's astrologer told her that the secretariat is not
"auspicious," and she has constructed an office at her
residence, increasing her alienation from the state civil
service, which rarely interacts with her. Considered an
outsider in Rajasthan, she has done little to endear herself
to the state's entrenched elites. Most assume she is not
really comfortable in Jaipur and would not be averse to
returning to Delhi if offered a suitable position.

Comment: Can Radical Surgery Save the Patient?
-------------- -


10. (C) When elected in 2003, Vasundhara Raje appeared to be
one of the future BJP superstars. Since then, the party's
long decline has also encompassed her administration. The
Rajasthan BJP failed to unite behind its Chief Minister and
has been engulfed by factionalism. Her days as Chief
Minister may be numbered, as several rivals with strong local
roots are plotting against her. Rajasthan is another
disappointment for the BJP at a time when things are going
wrong all over the country for the party. With the BJP's
standing on the wane, even a change of administrations may
not stave off electoral defeat.
BLAKE