C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008012

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS ENRG PBTS ETRD IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: MEA LARGELY UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK, BUT QUAKE NO
PANACEA FOR TERRORISM

REF: A. NEW DELHI 7990

B. STATE 188931

C. NEW DELHI 7874

D. 10/13 DEPARTMENT PRESS GUIDANCE

E. NEW DELHI 3745

F. NEW DELHI 1480

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: In an October 14 meeting with PolCouns and
Poloff, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha judged that it was too soon to assess the damage
the October 8 earthquake dealt to terrorism in Kashmir,
although he cautioned that the terrorists' setbacks may only
be temporary. The earthquake also set back progress on some
Indo-Pak transportation and trade related CBMs that had been
proceeding apace. Sinha reported good vibes and incremental
progress on expanding air links and liberalizing business
visas emerging from Natwar Singh's October 3-5 trip to
Pakistan, and explained that journalists had overstated how
close the two sides were to a deal on Siachen Glacier before
the meeting, which made their inability to close the gaps
erroneously appear to be a last-minute collapse. He had no
news to share on the World Bank expert's site visit to
Baglihar Dam, and agreed that the transfer of F-16s to
Pakistan would not alter the region's strategic balance. End
Summary.

Earthquake an Effective CT Operation? Too Soon to Tell
-------------- --------------


2. (C) After receiving PolCouns' condolences for the
earthquake deaths suffered in India and our appreciation for
the aid and assistance India is sending to Pakistan, Sinha
said it is too soon to assess accurately the damage the
earthquake inflicted on terrorist groups operating in
Kashmir. He noted that terrorist infiltrations and attacks
continue despite United Jehad Council supremo Syed
Salahuddin's call for a cease-fire and assistance with rescue
efforts (Ref A), remarking "They continue these attacks when

their own people are suffering from the earthquake; they are
so driven by hate they cease to be human."


3. (C) Taking PolCouns' point that GOP involvement with
cross-border terrorism would now require an affirmative
decision to rebuild camps and support infrastructure in
Kashmir, Sinha nevertheless cautioned that reconstruction of
training camps and launching points would not be an onerous
task. He commented on the reports of damage to terror camps
as an indication that they continued to exist in the face of
Islamabad's denials. PolCouns noted that the USG sees
positive changes in Musharraf's views and actions regarding
Kashmir-oriented terrorism, and reiterated that both sides
would benefit from sharing information on Kashmir (Ref E);
Sinha remained unconvinced that Musharraf had made any
permanent changes to GOP policy on cross-border terrorism.

Quake Damage Delays CBMs
--------------


4. (C) Turning to Indo-Pak people-to-people CBMs, Sinha
reported that the road for the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus
service and the landmark "Aman Sethu" ("Peace Bridge") were
damaged in the quake, and engineers have not yet assessed how
long repairs will take. The buses returned this week via a
circuitous route to deliver passengers back to their homes.
The damage will also delay plans to allow trucks carrying
produce for cross-border trade to ply the LoC crossing,
because the two sides have yet to establish customs
facilities to support trade along this hilly route, a project
which is now secondary to disaster relief and recovery.
Similarly, Sinha added, the technical meetings to clear the
way for the Lahore-Amritsar bus service are on hold.
Rumors of a Siachen Breakthrough Leaned Too Far Forward
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Sinha revealed that news reports of an imminent
breakthrough on Siachen Glacier during the October 3-5
Foreign Ministers' meeting in Islamabad misinterpreted the
GOI's position. Delhi sought mutually agreed authentication
of current troop locations and an agreement that the
extension of the LoC through that region would progress north
from point NJ9842, and not northeast to the Karakoram Pass
(which would cede territory to Pakistan). Some journalists
"jumped to paragraph two, on authenticating the troop
locations, without pausing on paragraph one for delineating
the LoC," which prematurely raised expectations, he
concluded. Consequently, the lack of an agreement was not
the big disappointment the press portrayed it to have been.

Expanded Air Links, Liberalized Biz Visas in the Cards
-------------- --------------


6. (C) That said, Sinha emphasized that the atmospherics for
Natwar Singh's trip were "all positive," he found Islamabad
"willing to move forward" on expanding bus and air transport
links, and the GOP's periodic reasserting of the "centrality
of Kashmir" had become "just a chant" that did not impede
progress in other areas. He experienced a similar "air of
optimism" when he accompanied Natwar Singh to Karachi --
there were "absolutely no diatribes," and Natwar adopted
Pakistani Foreign Minister Kasuri's formulation of Pakistan
being a prospective "hub for Central Asian trade," with the
implication that transit rights would also flow. Sinha added
that the two sides had agreed in principle to expand air
links (more flights, destinations, and carriers) and
liberalize business visas (longer duration, more cities), and
the PM has given the green light, but the bureaucracies
continue to work out the details. He noted in passing that
whereas Pakistan International Airlines uses all 12 of its
allocated flights per week, Indian Airlines only runs two
flights per week. (COMMENT: Another good reason for private
Indian carriers to fly to Pakistan. END COMMENT.)

Patient on Baglihar
--------------


7. (C) Sinha had "no indication of how things are leaning"
from last week's site visit to Baglihar Dam by World
Bank-appointed "Neutral Expert" Raymond Lafitte (Ref C). He
outlined that Lafitte's role is to adjudicate GOP questions
on the dam's specifications. If his ruling (due in
January-February) does not satisfy both parties, the matter
becomes a "dispute" and subject to arbitration by a board
whose creation and composition is governed by Annexes to the
Indus Water Treaty (Ref F). As per our prior conversations
on the matter, Sinha held that the GOI would support the
resolution process as prescribed by the Treaty.

F-16s Still in the Air ... as is Democracy
--------------


8. (C) Asked about the pending Congressional notification
for the transfer of F-16s to Pakistan, Polcouns drew upon Ref
D talking points to underline that we do not expect the
transfer to alter the region's strategic landscape. Polcouns
also drew upon Ambassador Crocker's remarks at the New Delhi
Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis (Septel), noting
that the Pakistan Air Force uses its existing F-16s in CT
operations and the transfer would strengthen our effort to
help Pakistan move in a positive direction. Sinha averred
that the issue is not strategic -- although he admitted that
he personally concurs that the F-16s would not alter the
balance -- but whether the USG is "rewarding bad behavior,"
to which PolCouns responded that Washington continues to
ensure that Pakistan remains on the right track in moving
toward democracy.

Sharing Positive News on Terrorism
--------------


9. (C) PolCouns also shared with Sinha Ref B
Zawahiri-al-Zarqawi letter, and pointed out that the letter
showed how the capture in Pakistan of Abu al-Faraj al-Libi
was disrupting al-Qa'ida funding and logistics in South Asia.

Comment: Rapprochement Still the Name of the Game
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Despite Sinha's reluctance to give Musharraf ground
on cross-border terror -- which is echoed in much of the
Indian bureaucracy -- the MEA remains committed to moving the
rapprochement process ahead. In Sinha's estimation, the
earthquake set back both the peace process (for logistical
reasons) and terrorism, but only temporarily. We hope he was
right on the first count, and wrong on the second.
BLAKE