TFPK01: KASHMIRIS SEEK LOWERING OF BORDERS AS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 007990 SIPDIS STATE FOR TFPK01 AND SA E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2015 TAGS: PGOV EAID AEMR KISL PTER PBTS PK IN SUBJECT: TFPK01: KASHMIRIS SEEK LOWERING OF BORDERS AS EARTHQUAKE AFFECTS POLITICS, TOO REF: A. NEW DELHI 7984 ¶B. NEW DELHI 7947 ¶C. NEW DELHI 7910 ¶D. NEW DELHI 7880 ¶E. NEW DELHI 7877 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Geoffrey R. Pyatt for Reaso ns 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: PM Singh and the senior Indian leadership have moved swiftly following the October 8 earthquake to show Kashmiris that India shares their grief and would help them, but relief efforts have been slow to reach some areas. The quake is having its impact in Kashmiri politics, too, with the lame-duck Chief Minister and the moderate separatist leadership calling for the free flow of relief supplies across the Line-of-Control (LOC) as a token of affection for their afflicted brethren on the Pakistani side. Moreover, Indian and Pakistani troops along the LOC seem to have worked out cooperative working relationships in the immediate aftermath. The Army chief says infiltration is down, and the Jihad Council grudgingly announced a ceasefire, although terrorists slit the throats of 10 Hindus on the eve of Dussehra and, in a first, a female suicide bomber just missed an army convoy on October 13. Separatist leaders, putting their dialogue with Delhi on hold for now, are seeking ways to leverage the quake's reawakening of a shared Kashmiri identity to lower border restrictions even as they and other politicians jockey for advantage. The quake, while terrible, could yet yield some small political dividends in Kashmir if Delhi addresses the desire of Kashmiris to reduce or erase the divide that separates them and handles the PDP/Congress transfer of power adroitly. End Summary. WE REALLY DO CARE FOR YOU -------------- ¶2. (C) The Indian government, mindful of how it is viewed by Kashmiris, has stepped up to provide relief in the Valley and in remote areas along the LOC. Congress President Sonia Gandhi, PM Manmohan Singh, and Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee all visited Kashmir immediately after the quake, and have promised lavish amounts of aid for victims. Sonia announced upon her return to Delhi that Chief Ministers across India would send aid to Kashmir in addition to the Central government's contributions. In doing this, the GOI hopes to change the opinions of Kashmiris, many of whom hold conflicted views of Delhi after fifteen years of insurgency and counter-insurgency. Even Opposition Leader LK Advani visited Uri to show Kashmiris there that the people of India shared their grief. While relief efforts by the military have been praised in J&K, efforts by the Kashmiri civilian administration have been hampered by poor planning and execution, with much aid failing to reach intended beneficiaries. Separatist leaders have criticized the GOI's decision not accept foreign aid, contrasting the situation with that in Pakistan, where the US military and foreign NGOs are quite prominent. COMMENT: India's situation is not as dire as that in Pakistan, its resources are greater, and it has a track record -- including after the December Tsunami -- of getting relief quickly to its people using its own resources. It also wants to show that it can manage on its own as part of its claim to being a global power. END COMMENT. AN OPPORTUNITY IN INDO-PAK RELATIONS -------------- ¶3. (U) Capturing a growing sentiment in Delhi, a senior think-tanker, ORF's Wilson John, wrote October 14 that, "The quake, howsoever tragic, offers Musharraf a chance to write a new chapter in India-Pakistan relations" if he accepts India's offers not just of aid, but of joint relief efforts. John proposed a joint India-Pakistan task force, a jointly-prepared short- and long-term strategy for the recuperation of J&K, joint NGO relief operations, cooperation in restoring basic services, IAF helo support for relief operations with security assurances from India about their use and purpose, joint restoration of the Srinagar-Muzzafarabad road and bridge links, donation of Indian pharmaceuticals, despatch of Indian medical teams, and deployment of Indian construction expertise to rebuild Pakistani housing. C'MON PEOPLE NOW, SMILE ON YOUR BROTHER... -------------- ¶4. (U) In a step that could also aid India-Pakistani relations, Kashmiris are pushing for further lowering of borders as a result of the tragedy that has befallen them. J&K Chief Minister Mufti Mohamed Sayeed asked the Central government, including PM Singh, October 12 to allow Kashmiris to cross the LOC with relief materials as a "token of love and affection" between people from both sides. Mufti was reported as saying, "People-to-people contact is essential in this time of crisis. People here...want to take relief across." The CM also asked the PM for approval to establish phone links between Srinagar and Muzzafarabad, since people in Pakistani Kashmir, he noted, could call their relatives in India, but the reverse was not true. ¶5. (U) Signalling the broad stirring of pan-Kashmiri sentiment, moderate separatist leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq also called for India and Pakistan to undertake joint relief operations in J&K, while Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) leader Yasin Malik announced he would travel to Pakistan to deliver $250,000 in aid. Malik said many people he had spoken to in Srinagar and its environs also expressed a desire to travel to Muzzafarabad to try to be of assistance to people in need. Meanwhile, the only sanctioned travelers across the LOC were Srinagar-Muzzafarabad bus passengers returning home (via Wagah in Punjab due to damage to roads and bridges in Kashmir) to assess damage and mourn their dead. THE ARMY: NOT JUST FOR COUNTER-INSURGENCY -------------- ¶6. (U) Kashmiris also had positive things to say about the immediate, visible, and significant Indian Army and Air Force relief effort. TV and newspapers have covered the military's relief effort extensively. Indians have taken great pride in the fact that their troops responded so quickly to civilians' plight in Kashmir even as soldiers suffered their own losses due to the quake, including a reported 100 soldiers dead and 105 injured in various places along the LOC. IAF helicopters have been airdropping food in remote areas and army medical teams have been providing care in even the most remote locations. Kashmiris have been quoted in the press and seen on TV applauding the army's efforts, including provision of tonnes of relief and medical supplies, 2500 tents, ten chow halls, 13,000 food packets, and mobile surgery and rescue teams. The IAF has flown 400 fixed wing and 300 helicopter sorties, delivering 500 tonnes of supplies, including 135 tonnes of blankets, and evacuating 475 seriously wounded people. One journalist to whom we spoke said the reaction in Kashmir to the relief aid from the army and the west had been "a reappraisal of our having branded you as Kaffirs (unbelievers)." By contrast, journalists and separatists had scathing criticism for civilian administration relief efforts, and wondered why the GOI would not permit foreign NGOs and the USG to provide aid. THE RAMADAN AND DUSSEHRA ARMISTICE? -------------- ¶7. (U) The Indian newspapers are awash in stories of cooperation all along the LOC between Indian and Pakistani army units. One story had Pakistani troops returning Indian soldiers who strayed across the LOC due to the quake, while another had Indians digging Pakistanis out of a bunker that collapsed within sight of their positions. Yet other stories went a step further, saying the troops also helped rebuild the bunker, but Pakistan and India denied those rumors and India later said -- in an effort to calm the growing uproar in the Pakistani press over Indian troops allegedly crossing the LOC -- that its troops had only provided Pakistani soldiers tools with which to dig for their compatriots following a bunker collapse. Indian army spokesmen did, however, reiterate their desire to be helpful in any way with relief efforts across the LOC/border, which in some areas is only 15 kilometers from Muzzafarabad, even to the extent of providing helicopter support if requested. TERROR, INC. SENDS MIXED SIGNALS AND LICKS ITS OWN WOUNDS -------------- -------------- ¶8. (U) The amity between soldiers did not, however, immediately extend to insurgents. In a disturbing first, a female suicide bomber killed herself in Awantipura on October 13, just missing an army convoy. The Jaish-e-Muhamad (JeM) claimed responsibility. Terrorists also slit the throats of ten Hindus in Rajouri on the eve of Dussehra even though the insurgents' umbrella organization, the Jehad Council, grudgingly announced an earthquake ceasefire that same day. Army Chief of Staff GEN JJ Dhillon did state prior to the quake, however, that infiltration had indeed gone down, reducing tension and boosting terrorism. The General attributed the drop to better countermeasures by the Army and the ongoing Indo-Pak dialogue. Terrorism analyst B Raman, writing on www.rediff.com said the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had admitted extensive damage to its infrastructure in Pakistani Kashmir, as well as the death of 70 of its cadres, and that Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) had admitted 100 deaths. Raman noted, however, that terrorist camps generally consist of tents and makeshift structures that were easily shifted to evade detection. Raman theorized the terrorists' biggest obstacle may be disruptions due to the quake and the ubiquitous presence of foreign relief teams, weakening their deniability. On October 14, the Times of India cited intelligence sources as claiming upwards of 1500 insurgents/terrorists had been killed in Pakistani Kashmir due to the quake. PARTY POLITICS TAKES NO BREATHER... -------------- ¶9. (C) As in all things Kashmiri, the quake quickly assumed a political edge, with separatists and politicians vying to show they were "delivering" the goods. Local Congress party cadres, who sense they may soon take power from CM Mufti in a power-swapping deal struck three years ago, accused Mufti's ruling PDP of diverting relief supplies for political gain. Punjab's Congress-ruled government then announced it would only deliver the state's contributions to relief efforts to J&K Congress officials, not state functionaries. JKLF's Yasin Malik accused Congress MLA and J&K Minister for Food Taj Moh-i-ud-din of visiting Uri in a 20 car motorcade carrying "not a single piece of bread for hungry survivors" even though Malik's organization had provided relief aid. Malik also complained that government relief was not getting to remote areas, and urged the GOI to permit foreign NGOs to provide aid. ¶10. (C) Meanwhile, contacts indicated the much-rumored transfer of power from PDP to Congress was given a boost when the PM visited Kashmir with CM Mufti's presumed replacement, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, but a PDP contact said the tragedy will at least postpone the October 31 transfer. Azad's continued presence in Kashmir to oversee relief operations has also exacerbated tensions between PDP and Congress. Mufti remains popular, and well-connected political columnist Harish Khare, writing in the "The Hindu," warned Congress would sacrifice much goodwill if Sonia decides to replace Mufti with Congress party "in-house intriguers" conspiring to take the Chief Minister job. Mufti, Khare argued, had successfully erased the perception that the CM was Delhi's errand boy by doing a fine job in his three years in power. Further complicating all this speculation is the impending shift of the J&K government from Srinagar to its winter seat in Jammu. BUT THE DELHI-SRINAGAR DIALOGUE WILL RECESS -------------- ¶11. (C) As for the dialogue between Delhi and the Mirwaiz Hurriyat, scheduled to take place in mid-October, separatist Bilal Lone told us that politics must wait until people get help. Journalists we spoke to agreed that the dialogue would be postponed for now. Hurriyat spokesman Professor AG Bhat said talks might take place toward the end of November if relief efforts went well. Such a delay is reasonable to expect given the scale of the calamity. COMMENT: KASHMIRIS CRY OUT FOR LOWERED BORDERS -------------- -- ¶12. (C) Yasin Malik's efforts to take relief supplies to Pakistan show that the separatists want to underline in this moment of tragedy Kashmiris' shared identity, despite borders and lines of control. Separatists have sought to rise above petty politics, and have pushed for direct aid, reconnected telephone connections, joint relief operations, and resumed transport links across the LOC, reinforcing Kashmiris' sense of shared identity. In this regard, the tragedy has provided separatists and politicians on both sides an opportunity to advance the implementation of PM Singh's vision of soft borders. Moreover, the image of Indian relief helicopters ferrying victims and supplies could help Delhi recast itself in the eyes of Kashmiris. The gelling consensus in Kashmir in favor of the PM's vision of reducing the LOC's salience is encouraging. Delhi now needs to make sure it does not destroy this opportunity to make real progress either by brusquely shoving aside popular Chief Minister Mufti in favor of a loyal Congress figure or by failing to sustain its nascent dialogue with the separatists about the concerns of average Kashmiris. If Sonia makes the right decisions now, tragedy in Kashmir could give rise to new hope, especially if Pakistan matches Delhi's moves. END COMMENT. ¶13. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) BLAKE