CONGRESS SET TO WIN IN HARYANA BUT THE VICTORY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000796

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS SET TO WIN IN HARYANA BUT THE VICTORY
MARGIN IS NOT CLEAR

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Pundits, journalists, and politicians agree
that Congress will emerge victorious in Haryana's February 3
Legislative Assembly elections, winning from 60 to 80 seats
in the 90 member Assembly. Growing disgust with the misrule
and corruption of the ruling Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)
has caused its supporters to abandon it in favor of Congress.
The BJP has no base in Haryana and is expected to win only
5-8 seats. With the outcome not in doubt, the outstanding
questions are the Congress margin of victory and who will
become Chief Minister. The Congress capture of another state
will represent the latest in an unbroken string of
Congress/United Progressive Alliance (UPA) victories. If it
also wins in Jharkhand and Bihar (septel),the UPA position
could be strong enough to ensure a full five-year term. End
Summary.

Press Sees a Congress Wave
--------------


2. (U) Haryana State Legislative Assembly elections will
take place on February 3, with votes counted and results to
be announced on February 27. On January 25 and 27-28, Poloff
traveled throughout the state meeting with local leaders of
Congress, the INLD and the BJP, as well as several
journalists for a first-hand look at the campaign.


3. (U) Pundits and the press are unanimous in predicting a
Congress victory. The current INLD government, headed by
Haryana Chief Minister Chautala, is locked in a three-way
contest against Congress and the BJP. Formerly allied with
the BJP in the NDA, the INLD parted company just before the
May 2004 national polls. In that contest, the INLD lost all
five of its Lok Sabha seats to Congress, with Congress
winning nine of Haryana's 10 parliamentary seats. On January
27, BJP Chief L.K. Advani ruled out a future alliance with
the INLD, saying that "We will never tie up with this party"
as it "has worked against the BJP throughout its term in the
state." The BJP, which is running in all 90 constituencies,
is telling voters that regional parties cannot deliver and
they should only vote for national parties.


4. (U) Although a Congress victory is all but certain, deep
divisions within the state party have come to the fore in
this campaign. There are at least six Congress contenders to
become Chief Minister after the election, and four head their
own factions in the Legislative Assembly. Competition for
Congress seats was intense and at least 12 disappointed
ticket seekers broke ranks with their party and are running
as independents. On January 27, the Congress leadership
suspended the "rebels" for six years. The CM contenders have
called for party unity, saying that they are leaving the
decision of who will become CM to Sonia Gandhi and the party
leadership.


5. (U) Congress released a manifesto on January 23, but most
agree that it has no program for Haryana. There is little
dispute that the INLD's poor governance and development
record has brought about its downfall. A "Hindustan Times"
reporter who accompanied CM Chautala on the campaign trail on
January 26 reported that his "famed oratory skills...seemed
to be missing, and the (old) excitement with which the crowds
thronged him wherever he went is also not to be seen."

Views of Local Journalists
--------------


6. (C) Poloff met with four local journalists who agreed
that a Congress victory is all but inevitable, and that it is
not clear who will become the next CM, or what the margin of
victory will be. The "India Today" correspondent opined that
if the Congress victory margin is small (60 seats or fewer),
it is likely to name former CM and state Congress Chief
Bhajan Lal, who is acceptable to the state's dominant Jat
(farmer) caste. However, if the margin is larger than 60
seats, Sonia Gandhi will be tempted to name her own CM. He
noted that Haryana is important to Congress for its proximity
to Delhi and as a major site for foreign investment.
Congress must demonstrate that it can deliver good governance
in this crucial state, he stressed.


7. (C) A "Tribune" correspondent confirmed that there was
considerable resentment in Haryana against Chautala and the
INLD. Although he delivered some development, Chautala was
arrogant, attempted to concentrate power within his family at
the expense of his supporters, and would make no concessions
to his BJP partners. The correspondent predicted that
Congress "rebels" would have no significant impact on the
election outcome, and that Sonia Gandhi would select Haryana
Dalit leader and Minister of State for Urban Employment and
Poverty Alleviation Kumari Selja as CM to solidify the
support of non-Jats behind Congress. He opined that the INLD
is likely to be reduced to 15 seats from its present 47. If
it drops below that, he noted, the party risks slipping into
irrelevance.
Views of Political Leaders
--------------


8. (C) Two INLD leaders acknowledged that Congress was
ahead, but refused to concede defeat. While their party has
a strong record on development, they insisted, leaving the
NDA had been a mistake that has hurt its electoral chances.
They noted that Congress was the main enemy, as the BJP poses
no threat due to its lack of organization and a local base.
They predicted that the BJP will win "less than eight" of
Haryana's 90 seats.


9. (C) Two Congress leaders lamented the "arrogance" of
their party, which they felt would reduce the victory margin.
If it were not for the rampant factionalism and ambition of
their leaders, the party could have won 85 seats, they
maintained. Discipline broke down and the party leadership
gave seats to their relatives, alienated and angering veteran
Congressmen. They predicted that the BJP rather than the
INLD would benefit from Congress infighting, as sentiment in
Haryana decidedly favors national parties. Another Congress
leader dismissed stories of "rebel" candidates, saying that
most of those that won would immediately apply to rejoin
Congress in any case.


10. (C) Both leaders pointed out serious political errors
committed by Chautala, including his decision to withdraw
subsidies on water and power for farmers, and his subsequent
failure to provide either. Chautala also ordered police to
fire on angry farmers, who were protesting that they were
being forced to pay for non-existent water and power. By
ordering the police to harass his political opponents,
Chautala also allowed crime to go unchecked until the state
was under a "reign of fear," as one put it. Chautala also
distributed lucrative state jobs amongst his many relatives
and supporters.


11. (C) A BJP leader made it clear that while his party did
not expect to do well in the contest, it had a long-term
plan. The BJP had little or no following in the state, as it
had always allowed the INLD to dominate, so the BJP would
henceforth operate independently, would seek no allies, and
would use this election as an exercise to build up strength
and prepare for the next contest. He predicted that in five
years the INLD would be reduced to insignificance, and that
future contests would be two-way races between the BJP and
Congress.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Congress leaders are clearly elated at the prospect
of capturing another state from the NDA, coming closer to
regaining its traditional base in North India, and dealing a
blow to the BJP in its Hindi heartland. Congress already has
a strong hold on Uttaranchal, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and
Delhi, and is likely to capture Jharkhand and Haryana in this
month's elections, while Bihar should remain in the hands of
UPA ally Laloo Prasad Yadav (septel). This would leave only
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in BJP control,
and hand the party another in what has become a string of
defeats. An energized Congress is likely to set its sites
next on Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, where it sees growing
prospects for a return to power.


12. (C) Haryana has been a bellwether for Indian national
politics, as it was among the first states to see large
numbers of legislators defect to the opposition, and the rise
of regional parties. This election could indicate the
beginning of another trend, as a severe INLD defeat could be
an early sign that the Indian electorate has begun to tire of
the parochialism and corruption of the regional parties and
is beginning to return to the national parties. Should
Congress and its UPA allies win a clean sweep in all three
states in this election, as many anticipate, it could also
make it much more likely that this government will remain in
power for its full five-year term, and should further
strengthen Congress' hand within its fractious coalition --
opening space for progress on issues of concern to the US.
MULFORD