INDIA ON IRAQI ELECTIONS: CONGRATULATE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000756

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IN IZ
SUBJECT: INDIA ON IRAQI ELECTIONS: CONGRATULATE AND
REEVALUATE

Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Despite the GOI's deliberately low-profile
public and material support in the run-up to the Iraqi
elections, Indian government, media, and commentators
welcomed the completion of Iraq's first election. In a
January 31 statement, the Indian MEA called the elections a
"noteworthy development" and reaffirmed Iraq's strategic
importance to New Delhi (full text in para 10). Circumspect
about engaging the interim regime, the GOI will likely engage
the new Iraqi government with more conviction, although
practical security concerns and continued opposition from
India's left parties will present major obstacles to a more
visible Indian presence in the near future. End Summary.

Pre-Election Hesitation
--------------


2. (C) As noted in previous reporting, the GOI has expressed
a desire to be more active in Iraqi elections, but security
concerns in Iraq and opposition by the left at home
effectively prevented more direct Indian involvement besides
funding for the electoral cluster of the UN Trust Fund.


3. (C) Despite post's urging the GOI to come forward with a
public statement in support of the elections, GOI leaders
were largely silent in the weeks and days before the polls.
In the inaugural address of the Center for West Asian Studies
at Jamia University the day before the elections, PM Manmohan
Singh briefly remarked on the long process ahead for Iraq.
Singling out sanctions and insecurity over Saddam as causes
of Iraqis' suffering, the PM bowed to his left wing with the
comment that, "We cannot but recall the extent of the
suffering of the Iraqi people over the past decades, in
particular following the imposition of sanctions, and under
the present disturbed situation." Despite this, he concluded
that, "India is committed to the prosperity and well-being of
the people of Iraq (and) we will do all we can, as Iraq
stabilizes, to help with the return of normalcy and in the
task of reconstruction that lies ahead."

But Shias Enthusiastic
--------------


4. (C) India's Shia community, on the other hand, was
enthusiastic about the quick conclusion of Iraqi elections.
Two days before the polls, the newly launched "All India Shia
Personal Law Board" in the Shia stronghold of Lucknow
expressed its fervent hope for successful elections in Iraq
in the first resolution passed by the body. The resolution
expressed concern about the recent calls for violence issued
by "the henchmen of Saddam Hussein" to disrupt elections,
appealed to all Iraqi Shia to participate in the polls, and
voiced full support for Ayatollah SISTANI. This message was
echoed in Friday sermons and in leaflets distributed
throughout the Shia localities of Lucknow. Noting the US
role in helping Iraq reach this historic moment, two Shia
leaders, newspaper editor Zaheer Mustafa and High Court
advocate Ibne Hasan, however, also cautioned the US not to
make statements against Iran at this delicate juncture: "The
enemies of peace and democracy in Iraq...will cash in on any
anti-Iran statement by the US government," Hasan warned.

Post-Election Reactions: Ballots Defeat Bullets
-------------- ---


5. (U) Civic elections in Jammu and Kashmir generally got
top billing over the Iraqi elections in the Sunday press, but
most media on Monday heralded the triumph of ballots over
bullets in Iraq, illustrated by Iraqis brandishing peace
signs with inked index fingers. "The Asian Age" which had
run skeptical articles in the run-up to the elections,
carried an upbeat headline, "Party Spirit as Iraq Votes,"
with a subtitle, "After we win, no to America." One
exception to the congratulatory headlines was "The Hindu"
which featured the day's death toll of 36 over the reported
76 percent voter turnout.


6. (C) As expected, reactions to Iraq's elections among
India's considerable Muslim population was divided along
sectarian lines. India's Shia population lauded the overall
conduct of the elections. Syed Hamidul Hasan, principal of
India's most prestigious Shia madrassa and one of the
country's leading Shias, told PolOff by phone that he had
just returned from meeting Shia congregations in Gujarat who
were unanimously pleased with the polls. In the weeks
leading up to the polls, Hasan said he and other Shia leaders
in Lucknow instructed their congregations to contact friends
and relatives in Iraq and urge them to participate in the
elections. Moulvi Iftiqar Ansari, State Representative from
Srinigar gushed to PolOff, "Tremendous elections. We must
appreciate President Bush, though the Muslim world does not
like him. (This is) a great step. Iraqis can now form their
own legitimate government." In contrast, Muhammad Jafar,
Secretary General of Jamaat-Islami Hind, a hard-line Sunni

SIPDIS
organization, dismissed Iraq's elections as "eye wash,"
saying, "(the polls) can't be called elections in the real
sense."

Reevaluating Indian Involvement in Iraq
--------------


7. (C) Despite not playing an active role in the January 30
polls, MEA Joint Secretary, Gulf Division R. Dayakar
reiterated GOI commitment to Iraq's democratic transition and
indicated that the GOI would reevaluate the level of its
involvement in a meeting with PolCouns and Pol-MilOff on
January 31. He confirmed that India will participate in the
April donors conference and hopes to be more active in
subsequent elections later this year. In addition to ongoing
vocational training and educational programs in India, the
GOI will also announce a new program to produce high energy
biscuits for the World Food Program for distribution in Iraq,
as it has done in Afghanistan. Describing these initiatives
as "the maximum we can do," he also repeated his complaint
that Baghdad's slow response to GOI offers erodes Indian
willingness to offer more.


8. (C) PolCouns asked about an earlier Indian proposal to
train police as a way to enhance Iraqi security and expedite
the departure of foreign troops. Dayakar replied that the
elections constituted a fundamental turning point, adding
that security force training, like other earlier proposals
such as the dispatch of a military hospital to Najaf and
training for the Iraqi army would now have to be reevaluated.
Sending Indian troops to Iraq, however, will not be
considered.


9. (C) PolCouns inquired whether the GOI would now consider
lifting the travel advisory preventing Indians from traveling
to Iraq, even for specific projects in safe areas of Iraqi
Kurdistan. Dayakar said MEA had decided to take "no
decision" on this issue for now. As long as there are
kidnappings -- he cited the recent case of Chinese workers
who had been kidnapped and released -- there would be
resistance to changing the GOI travel ban.


10. (U) Begin text of MEA statement:

The Government of India has been carefully monitoring recent
political developments in Iraq. It has been our view that
the restoration of full sovereignty to the Iraqi people is a
necessary pre-condition for peace and stability in that
country. In that context, the holding of elections in Iraq
on January 30, 2005, is a noteworthy development.
Preliminary reports about the turnout of voters are
encouraging. We hope that these events would set in motion a
process that would lead the Iraqi people taking full control
of their destiny.
As is well known, India has traditionally strong ties of
friendship with Iraq and its people. We would, therefore,
welcome the return of political stability and economic
prosperity to the country, situated in an area of
considerable strategic importance to India, in terms of the
large population of Indian citizens who live and work in the
Gulf, as also a significant source of our energy supplies.
We wish the people of Iraq success in their efforts towards
nation-building and stand ready to contribute to the
country's reconstruction in an environment free from
violence. End text.


11. (U) Minimize considered.
MULFORD