UNFOUNDED "THIRD FRONT" RUMORS HINT AT CONGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007432 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015 TAGS: PGOV IN SUBJECT: UNFOUNDED "THIRD FRONT" RUMORS HINT AT CONGRESS ANXIETY REF: A. NEW DELHI 7230 ¶B. NEW DELHI 7345 Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Persistent rumors in Indian political circles that the Left Front (LF) is conspiring with the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav to construct a "third front" capable of unseating the present United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government are unfounded. The LF benefits from the political status quo, which has provided it unprecedented influence over the GOI. It remains focused on upcoming elections in Bihar, West Bengal and Kerala, where it could do well and increase its influence still further. The SP has little in common with the LF and the two would have trouble working together. Although the blatant opportunism of Indian politicians, coupled with the allure of power could still send the country in a different direction, India has been heading for a two coalition political system for some time. Still, Congress party anxiety about the threat of a "third front," illustrates how fragile the UPA coalition remains, despite Manmohan Singh's growing stature and confidence. End Summary. The Rumor Synopsized -------------- ¶2. (C) An often-repeated rumor circulating among the political chatterati is that the Left Front (LF) and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) are conspiring to construct a third front that would bring down the current United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and replace it. Once together, these two groups would enlist additional support from disgruntled regional parties currently part of the UPA. The LF would then withdraw its support, bringing down the UPA. The third front would then approach the President with a request to form a new government. Building on a few Facts -------------- ¶3. (C) Like most Indian rumors, this one has a slim basis in fact. Vajpayee's August 30th call for mid-term elections increased speculation that perhaps the BJP was negotiating to join with the LF and SP to bring down the government. Others speculated that Vajpayee had done the math and determined that an LF and SP move to form a third front government was doomed to failure, as they would not be able to assemble the necessary number of votes, and that this would result in a mid-term election. Vajpayee never repeated his remarks and the speculation they fueled has died down. ¶4. (C) The rumors are also based on the friendly ties between the LF and SP. These date back to an earlier era when the Samajwadi (socialist) Party was a genuine left party. It has since degenerated into a mercenary, unprincipled group characterized primarily by corruption, political violence and personal aggrandizement. This has not prevented more nostalgic members of the LF from meeting frequently with Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh and others from the SP leadership. These meetings get wide press play and feed the rumor mill. A Third Front is a Nonstarter -------------- ¶5. (C) While the threat of a "Third Front" has introduced more uncertainty into the political mix, the LF still enjoys significant advantages within the UPA. Supporting the UPA from outside, it has gained considerable influence over India's political and economic policies. Not part of the government, it is free to criticize UPA policies, lobby for its own agenda, and not take the blame when things go wrong. ¶6. (C) The LF would be cautious about abandoning this strong position to venture out into uncharted territory with unreliable regional parties (and maybe even the right-wing BJP) as its allies. The LF prides itself on a strong ideological stance and relative incorruptibility. It presents itself as the honest alternative to the politics of other parties. The SP, represents no ideology except nihilistic opportunism and all pervasive corruptibility. The two groups alone would make very strange bedfellows. Add the BJP to the mix, and a chimera develops. The only glue to bind them would be naked opportunism. Elections Take Top Priority -------------- ¶7. (C) In elections over the next year, the LF is certain to retain power in West Bengal, and hopeful it will return to power in Kerala and play a significant role in formation of the next government in Bihar. The Communists could gain in strength after these state elections and play an even more significant role in influencing the UPA. Until the electoral scenario is played out, the LF is not likely to end support for the UPA or give serious consideration to third front politics. Congress the Spoiler? -------------- ¶8. (C) To complicate the situation even further, the Congress may view the political disarray of its BJP rivals as an opening to solidify its control in parliament and call for mid-term elections. Currently, Congress holds only 146 parliamentary seats and is dependent on support from the LF and regional parties to retain a majority. Seeing an opening provided by the ongoing and never-ending divisions which have weakened the BJP (reftels),Congress may itself call mid-term elections, after assessing the upcoming state polls. ¶9. (C) Party strategists could determine that if BJP desertions continue, Congress could gain sufficient strength to form a government without LF support. The Prime Minister's advisers tell us he is deeply frustrated by the limits to his agenda that this dependency imposes. Congress always plays to win and is not comfortable ruling in a coalition were it must answer to "lesser" parties. However, this strategy is very risky in light of the Indian voter's typical anti-incumbency sentiment. Most observers predicted an easy victory for the BJP in the May 2004 elections and its resulting defeat by Congress demonstrates the whimsical nature of Indian politics, and provides an object lesson as to why early polls are a bad idea. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) India has been heading in fits and starts towards a center-left/center-right political system for some time. Recent stumbling by the BJP and an unexpected resurgence by the LF (septel) have fed speculation that India could return to a political system with at least three political power centers. Opportunists like Mulayam Singh Yadav know that once a two-coalition political system takes root, they could only play a supporting role in New Delhi. Such politicians take comfort in third front rumors and encourage them, because they hold out the possibility that a regional leader could become Prime Minister. Although the blatant opportunism of such politicians, coupled with the allure of power, could still send the country in a different direction, in our view, it would be extremely difficult to overcome the current momentum toward a two coalition system. National parties like the BJP and Congress are most likely to form the core of any future governments. Despite this, Congress insiders continue to take these rumors seriously, illustrating the continued vulnerability of the UPA government to a sudden shove that could unbalance the country's Parliamentary arithmetic. 12 (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) BLAKE