RISING BANGLADESHI MIGRATION IN INDIA AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007400

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS SMIG PTER BG IN
SUBJECT: RISING BANGLADESHI MIGRATION IN INDIA AND THE
BLAME GAME

REF: A. 02 CALCUTTA 595

B. NEW DELHI 5913

C. NEW DELHI 5318

D. CALCUTTA 246

Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) As India grows increasingly concerned about Islamic
extremism in Bangladesh, there is a rising paranoia about the
number of Bangladeshi migrants, the nature of a more
radicalized Islam that they bring to border areas, and
changes in political demographics in the Northeast. This
problem is aggravated by the realization that neither the
Communist and Congress parties, which in many areas rely on a
Muslim vote bank, nor Bangladesh, which India claims denies
all migration, are ready to do anything to stem the problem.
There is also a widespread perception in Calcutta and
elsewhere in eastern India that Pakistan, now under greater
pressure to control terrorism in Kashmir, has switched its
focus to India's Northeast, where ISI is widely believed to
be funding Islamic fundamentalism and aiding insurgent
groups. Fears about migrants and the causes of
radicalization are genuine, but somewhat exaggerated. India
is partially blaming its neighbors for its own failures in
the Northeast and along the border, and as a result, the GOI
will continue to stress its security concerns even as it
tries to improve ties with Bangladesh.

The Response: Nothing So Far
--------------


2. (SBU) Security analysts in Eastern India have always been
concerned about Bangladeshi migrants (Ref A),but two events
have focused the spotlight on the problem and brought it to
the attention of a wider section of Indian society. The
Supreme Court repeal of the Illegal Migrants (Determination
by Tribunals) Act in July (Ref B) and the August 17 bomb
blasts in Bangladesh have raised fears that increasing
numbers of migrants bring with them a radicalized Islam that
is out of touch with India's primarily moderate religious
practices. This fear is enunciated not just by skeptical
security analysts, by also by moderate Bengali Muslims who
see a more intolerant breed of Islam taking hold in border
districts. The negative effects of the porous border are
getting wider attention, but Calcutta-based contacts do not
expect any tough measures either to deport migrants or
prevent future migration. The BJP has tried to make the
repeal of the IMDT Act a national political issue, but
Congress and Communist ruling parties have exhibited no
political will to crack down on migrants.


3. (C) One exception is West Bengal, where the Congress
party is against the migrants because they tend to vote for
the CPI(M). CPI(M) Chief Minister Bhattacharjee is one of
the few Communist politicians who believes the migrants are
such a threat that he has publicly made statements against
migration. Statements aside, former Deputy Chief of RAW B.B.
Nandi says there is "no change in the behavior of the
political parties," who use the migrants. With little hope
of Indian action, journalists and the GOI continue to blame
Dhaka for its poor border management, which allows Northeast
insurgents to sneak out of India and Bangaldeshi migrants to
come in.

The Responsibility: India or Bangladesh?
--------------


4. (C) When the GOI blames Bangladesh for abetting migration
and stirring up trouble in the Northeast, some analysts in
Calcutta call on India first to reflect internally on its
role in the problem. Rajat Roy, a journalist for the Bangali
Anand Bazaar Patrika observed that India's Northeastern
security problems, such as migrants, insurgents, camps and
madrassas, are only symptoms of the disease. He thinks India
should look harder at the lack of development in the
Northeast, disgruntlement with the GOI, hawkish policies
which hurt Bangladesh and the BSF's failure along the border.
Most of the Northeast insurgency groups are fighting for
"independence," and are tapping into a sentiment in a region
that has been excluded by India's process of nation-building
and modernization (Ref D). Even when the GOI does send
development funds into the Northeast, Roy alleged, corruption
is so rampant that the funds are leaked to the insurgent
groups. Delhi has entered into peace talks with only a few
of the proliferating separatist groups, and those have not
led to any dramatic changes. If insurgent groups are growing
and their members are sneaking across the porous border into
Bangladesh, Roy argued, Delhi should examine its own
political failures instead of blaming the GOB.


5. (C) Chandan Nandi, a former "Hindustan Times" journalist
who is writing a thesis on this topic at Brandeis University,
explained how anti-migration politicians have played up the
fear of Muslim infiltrators before elections. Congress
passed the IMDT Act to protect migrants after the 1983 Assam
assembly elections massacre, when a "drive out the foreigners
movement" killed a few thousand Bangaldeshi migrants. As
Chandan pointed out, migrants did not feel the need to
purchase illegal voting rights until after 1983 massacre. As
more migrants gained the right to vote, they quickly became a
protected vote bank for Congress and Communist parties. This
violent history and the continued efforts to exaggerate the
threat of immigration makes the migrants more susceptible to
radicalism.


6. (C) B.B. Nandi, the former Deputy Chief of RAW, argued
that if the MEA is really concerned with migrants, they
should be focusing on solutions to the problem that avoid
accusations against the GOB. He suggested, for instance,
encouraging Indian investment in the border areas to increase
employment within Bangladesh. Concerned third party donors
could require that a certain percentage of their aid go to
border areas. A work permit system would allow legal
economic migration while reducing the illegal acquisition of
voting rights and lowering tension along the border.


7. (C) The BSF, which has more resources than its
Bangaldeshi counterpart, also gets some of the blame for not
stopping migration. According to Anil Kamboj, an Additional
DIG from BSF now at a Delhi-based think tank, the ratio of
BSF to BDR guards is almost two to one. Additional Deputy
General of the BSF in Eastern India Damodar Sarangi told
Poloff that the BSF had sufficient guards to protect the
border and believed the fencing, now almost half finished,
should block future migration. But corrupt guards block GOI
efforts along the border. Journalist Chandan Nandi described
the system of "dalals," or middlemen, which sprouted up along
the border as migration became more difficult. Fencing has
only increased the economic costs of migrating in unfenced
areas, so that instead of paying off a BSF guard one hundred
rupees to look the other way, migrants now have to pay a
middleman five hundred rupees to make the arrangements for
safe transport across the border. RAW retiree B.B. Nandi
commented that any post office manager in Calcutta knows that
BSF guards send home approximately five times their salary to
their families around India.

The Demographics: Muslims Increasing Political Force in NE
-------------- --------------


8. (C) The accusations that the Congress and Communist
parties cater to Muslim migrants as a vote bank by giving
them illegal voting rights have raised concerns in political
circles about the effect of the "demographic invasion." Ajai
Sahni, Executive Director of the Institute for Conflict
Management, estimates the illegal influx at about 300,000
persons per year. This translates to just over 800 people
daily coming across India's porous 4,095 kilometer border
with Bangladesh. Even if these numbers are exaggerated, West
Bengal BJP President Tathagata Roy pointed out that Muslims
are now a majority in eight out of twenty-three districts in
Assam and three out of twenty districts in West Bengal. As
more Muslims move in, Hindus gradually leave the area,
increasing the migrants' election power. In Calcutta, both
former Deputy Chief of RAW B.B. Nandi and Inspector General
of the Intelligence Branch of the West Bengal Police Dilip
Mitra told Poloff that the number of migrants in the Indian
area around the border is so high that it has effectively
moved the border of Bangladesh ten to fifteen kilometers into
India.

The Religion: Signs of Extremism
--------------


9. (C) Although the majority of migrants are only looking
for economic opportunities across the border, Mission
contacts fear that migrants are bringing a more radicalized
form of Islam with them to India. Subir Bhaumik, a BBC
Correspondent for Eastern India who specializes in Bangladesh
and border issues, believes that the fear of the number of
migrants is exaggerated, but agrees that the migrants may be
more prone to religious radicalism. Dr. S.B. Roychowdhury, a
professor at Calcutta's Rabindra Bharati University, has seen
a rise in the number of mosques built in the West Bengal
border areas with outside funding and Wahabi influence. Roop
Sen, who manages anti-trafficking programs along the border,
observed that there are surprisingly well-funded mosques and
madrassas even in very poor migrant slums. Nandi noted that
mullahs in this same area have put out fatwahs, or religious
opinions, against the Sufi "Baum" community to ostracize them
economically and socially. The West Bengal government,
although aware of this penal offense, has not taken action
out of fear of losing popularity before elections next
spring.


10. (SBU) In another example, authorities in Calcutta found
leaflets in the name of "Mujahdeen Al Quaida Pacific
International" directly after the August 17 bomb blasts in
Bangladesh. The Deputy Commissioner for the Special Branch
reported that two people were arrested for distributing
leaflets and collecting money in the name of Bin Laden. He
added that there was no connection with Al Qaeda terrorists
and the leaflets were a fundraising scam, but worried that
the ability to raise funds suggests that there is support in
Calcutta for the fundamentalist cause. According to the
Deputy Commissioner, there are 400 registered madrassas and
5000 unregistered madrassas in West Bengal.

The Culprit: Predictably, ISI
--------------


11. (C) Bangladesh watchers in Delhi and Calcutta blame
Pakistan's ISI for radicalizing the population. In a recent
report, Institute for Conflict Management Executive Director
Ajai Sahni accuses the ISI of moving operations from Kashmir
to the Northeast by funding madrassas and training camps and
creating linkages between Northeast insurgent groups and
Muslim fundamentalists. The ISI is funding madrassas along
the border, former Deputy Chief of RAW Nandi commented, to be
a "thorn in India's other side." The BBC's Subir Bhaumik,
who has traveled extensively throughout the area, speculated
that "ISI keeps the pot boiling in the NE" to keep the Indian
military preoccupied outside of Kashmir. Lieutenant-General
of Military Intelligence Deepak Summanwar told a recent
academic visitor to India of his concerns regarding ISI's
"free movement" in Bangladesh. India hinted at these
connections on August 29 when it gave Pakistan a list of
wanted people which included ULFA Commander-in-Chief Paresh
Barua, whom the GOI believes is living in Dhaka with
Pakistani assistance.

Comment: Migrant Paranoia Blocks Bilateral Progress
-------------- --------------


12. (C) Opposition to migrants has always resonated in the
Northeast, but as with the US-Mexico border, a porous
frontier is made more so by economic and political pull
factors. Now, imported radicalism and shifting demographics
are putting new strains on the Indo-Bangaldeshi relationship.
The GOI focus on security issues underlines that India and
Bangladesh do not share the same negotiating priorities.
When Dhaka brings up trade and water, Delhi wants to talk
about its border security concerns and Indian insurgents in
Bangladesh. The MEA tells us they are looking for creative
ways to make progress with Dhaka through economic
concessions, but lack of political will and security concerns
have held up progress thus far in other areas. Upcoming
elections in Assam and West Bengal may aggravate both
situations because the UPA is not likely to toughen up on
migrants and the BJP will play up the anti-immigration card.
As a result, the GOI will continue to blame Bangladesh for
its security concerns rather than offering bold initiatives
to ease the bilateral gridlock. Meanwhile, some 800 illegals
cross into India daily.


13. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
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