WHITHER THE BJP?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007230 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN PK SUBJECT: WHITHER THE BJP? REF: A. NEW DELHI 5685 ¶B. NEW DELHI 5216 ¶C. NEW DELHI 4447 ¶D. NEW DELHI 4315 ¶E. NEW DELHI 4270 ¶F. NEW DELHI 4232 Classified By: CDA Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Well-documented divisions (reftels) have recently prevented the BJP from fulfilling its role as India's leading opposition party and led to a string of electoral defeats. The latest "crisis" was the expulsion and reinstatement of BJP leader Madan Lal Khurana. The core issue is whether the Sangh Parivar (Hindu family of parties) will capture the party or allow it to adopt a more moderate course. The party will continue to decline until this issue is resolved. The BJP's vituperative attack on PM Singh's comments during a meeting with President Bush reflects this malaise, and the readiness to jump on any issue that presents itself. The party leadership will meet in Chennai September 16-18 in an attempt to address its internal issues. If it fails to resolve this crisis, the BJP can expect continued decline and likely defeat in a crucial electoral contest in Bihar in mid October. BJP problems have already impacted the Indian political system. The Left Front (LF) has moved to occupy some of the opposition vacuum, and some within the Left and regional parties have begun speculating about the formation of a "third front" to replace the BJP as the opposition leader (septel). Despite these developments, the BJP should not be counted out, and it could still revive, resume its place as India's leading opposition party and return to power in New Delhi. End Summary. Still More Divisions -------------- ¶2. (SBU) When in power, the BJP often appeared monolithic and disciplined. Since being ousted from New Delhi, the Sangh Parivar has fractured. Although the party had been deeply divided for some time, the rift first became public when the RSS expressed its displeasure at the party's aging leadership duo of Party President LK Advani and former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee and called for their replacement. Advani fueled the flames with his unexpectedly conciliatory remarks on Pakistani founder Muhammad ali Jinnah during his May-June trip to Pakistan (reftel F). ¶3. (U) Advani's resignation as BJP President and subsequent reinstatement only increased the sense of desperation. Most political pundits inside and outside the party doubt that Advani will be able to hold on and expect he will be forced to again resign for a final time later this year. The question is not if, but rather when. With his resignation imminent, and no clear successor waiting in the wings, the BJP has become locked in a leadership struggle that has energized ambitious leaders and their various factions. Second tier leaders are staking their claims as best qualified to rejuvenate the party and lead it to victory. Khurana as Bellwether: Modi Litmus Test -------------- ¶4. (U) The latest episode in the protracted factionalism concerned the BJP's long-time political chieftain and former Chief Minister Madan lal Khurana, who was expelled from the BJP on September 11, and reinstated within 90 minutes after submitting a letter of "apology" to the party on September ¶12. Khurana's fate was never the real issue. Indian media and political pundits avidly followed the issue since it could provide an indicator whether the BJP will become the political mouthpiece of the Sangh Parivar (Hindu nationalist family of parties),or evolve into a more conventional opposition party. ¶5. (C) Advani expelled Khurana for criticizing Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, the poster child of the Sangh Parivar. Advani's position was that Khurana exhibited a lack of "discipline," by questioning the party's failure to rein in Modi and restrain his excesses. Under Modi's leadership, Gujarat has become deeply divided between Modi's opponents and supporters, and Advani has not intervened to resolve the issue. ¶6. (C) Despite Advani's long association with the RSS and his moves to placate them by supporting Modi, the organization and its Sangh allies have determined that Advani must be removed and replaced with someone more amenable to their agenda. Should they succeed, it would indicate that the Hindutva Wing has succeeded in its long-term goal of capturing the BJP, dooming the party to the political wilderness. ¶7. (C) Former PM Vajpayee, who has long mediated between the Sangh Parivar and others within the BJP, tried to play the same role in the Khurana affair. He first criticized Advani for being too hasty in expelling Khurana, then demanded that Khurana "apologize" before reinstatement, and lastly papered-over his differences with Advani, calling him "a friend, a colleague and the party president," and saying "we work together and we should always do so." In actuality, Vajpayee's flip-flops indicate the extent to which he has lost the reins of the party. Vacuum At the Top -------------- ¶8. (C) The recurring "crises" in the BJP reflect a power vacuum at the top. Party President Advani has been forced on the defensive by the Sangh Parivar's repeated attacks. Consumed with his own defense and lacking reliable lieutenants, he has been unable to manage the day to day working of the party or devise an effective strategy to combat upcoming elections or return the BJP to power in New Delhi. Sensing Advani's weakness and imminent departure, party leaders have stepped up their own campaigns to grab power, not only to replace Advani, but to carve out power bases in the states and define the BJP's future. ¶9. (C) As a result, the BJP's state units mirror the scene in New Delhi, with factions fighting for dominance. In addition to the bitter feud in Gujarat, the Uttar Pradesh BJP is so deeply divided that it has all but disappeared as a force in the country's largest state. In Madhya Pradesh, former Chief Minister Uma Bharati and her supporters are openly working to remove the BJP Chief Minister Babulal Gaur. Similar inter-BJP battles are taking place in Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and J&K, and most importantly in Bihar, which goes to the polls on October 19. Looking for Issues -------------- ¶10. (C) With the BJP in a deep malaise, it is having trouble presenting a coherent and unified front in opposition to UPA policies. In an unusual move indicating its desperation, the party has stepped up criticism of UPA conduct of the India-US relationship. On September 14 prominent BJP leaders including former External Affairs Ministers Yashwant Sinha and Jaswant Singh attacked PM Singh for "discussing domestic politics" during his meeting with President Bush. Claiming that the Prime Minister had singled out former PM Vajpayee for being "sharply critical" of the recent US-India agreement, Jaswant Singh emphasized that "all established conventions, mutual regard and due courtesy demand that domestic politics not be made a subject of discussion by our PM when visiting abroad." BJP Vice President Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told the press that the party would issue a separate statement on the Prime Minister's "conduct" of foreign relations. We expect the BJP to be similarly quick in jumping on any perceived mishandling of the Indo-Pak relationship for electoral advantage. The Party Leadership Conclave -------------- ¶11. (C) There are several key events that will in the coming months provide indicators as to where the BJP is headed. One is the BJP leadership conference now scheduled for September 16-18 in Chennai. Media and political observers are predicting that swords could be drawn at the meeting. The Sangh Parivar could use this venue to make its move to unseat Advani, forcing Vajpayee to play a mediating role to paper over differences. Electoral Battlegrounds -------------- ¶12. (C) The other key indicator is upcoming state elections. To demonstrate its political viability, the BJP must halt its electoral tailspin. If it cannot produce victories, its support could dry up, as the money and politicians move on to parties with better electoral track records and a better ability to secure and distribute government patronage. The upcoming Bihar election could be a key indicator. RJD boss and Railway Minister Lallu Prasad Yadav is pulling out all stops to return to power in the state. One of the keystones of his campaign is an appeal to Bihar Muslims to freeze the BJP "communalists" out of power. Should the BJP fail to meet the Lallu onslaught and go down in defeat, it will increase the party's downward momentum. ¶13. (SBU) Another key electoral battleground could be UP, where the government could fall at any time. Although we doubt the party will move until its position is assured, Congress activists continue to threaten to use the Governor to dismiss the UP government and bring on an election. On September 14, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav alleged that Congress is plotting to use a fatal outbreak of Japanese Encephalitis as an excuse to dismiss his government, while the UP Congress continues to assert that the state's deteriorating law and order situation has made it ungovernable. Should an election be called in UP, the BJP would not be a serious contender. Press reports quoted a "senior BJP functionary" in that state as confirming that the BJP is in "complete disarray" and there is a "total lack of any united movement." Comment: Where Do We Go From Here? -------------- ¶14. (C) Recent BJP turmoil has no doubt weakened the party. Public airing of internal problems is a dramatic shift in BJP behavior and points to a power struggle the likes of which the party has not seen in many years. The BJP downturn has already prevented it from playing the role of an effective opposition, allowing the Left Front (LF) to step in to fill the opposition vacuum. It has also led some in the regional and left parties to examine the possibility that they could take advantage of this situation to formulate a "third front" to grab power (septel). ¶15. (C) However, despite its deep and persistent problems, predictions of the BJP's permanent demise are premature. The long-awaited generational shift in leadership when Advani resigns, likely before the end of 2005, could still energize the beleaguered party, and the BJP's several year run of electoral success demonstrates that there is a current of Hindu nationalism in Indian society waiting to be tapped. Also relevant is the Congress Party's ability to avoid the pattern of corruption, dynastic politics and patronage-based administration that dragged down earlier governments. The near term outcome hinges on whether the BJP will choose a more radical successor, further weakening the party by taking it away from its the moderate masses, or elect a centrist, who will follow in Vajpayee's footsteps and strengthen the party under a "Hindutva Light" agenda with a greater focus on economic reform, development, and pragmatic administration. PYATT