GOI MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN EVER ON NEPAL

S E C R E T NEW DELHI 007092 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2015 TAGS: PREL PTER PBTS MOPS MASS ECON IN NP SUBJECT: GOI MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN EVER ON NEPAL REF: A. KATHMANDU 2014 ¶B. KATHMANDU 1980 Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: MEA Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae was less optimistic than ever that King Gyanendra would take steps to resolve the deteriorating political stalemate in Nepal. He told A/DCM and Poloff on September 12 that all Indian observers believe the King is in "self-destruct mode," and cite the finger-pointing among Palace advisors as evidence that there is little confidence among even the staunchest royalists that the King will find a successful way out (Ref A). The GOI is concerned that the initiative is slipping away from the Palace to the Maoists, and that any actions the King may eventually take to reconcile with the political parties may come as too little, too late. Amid a spike in domestic "naxalite" terrorism, the GOI is also alarmed by the recent joint declaration by Indian and Nepalese Maoists. End Summary. Brahimi's Visit: No "There" There -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Rae described UN Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi's August 29-September 1 visit as unsubstantial, painting it as merely an exchange of views on Nepal. Brahimi told the GOI that the UN was not looking to take on the challenge of mediating in Nepal, and in any case would defer to Indian sensitivities, Rae reported. Rae denied rumors that Brahimi had contacted Maoists while in New Delhi (Ref B),complaining that one Indian journalist has been publishing "rubbish" about GOI contacts with Maoist leaders. Maoists Attacks Are Very Disconcerting -------------- ¶3. (C) A recent high-casualty IED attack on a mine-protected vehicle in India's Chhatisgarh state, attributed to local Maoist insurgents, is a "great cause for concern," Rae admitted. GOI security forces are very suspicious that Nepalese Maoists are assisting their Indian naxalite counterparts. India's experience has shown that Maoists are best dealt with militarily at an early stage, Rae commented, but the situation in Nepal has gone beyond the point of a military solution. India and the US must strengthen the political parties as a credible institution, he added, so that they will be in a position of strength to negotiate the ultimate political solution that must end the Maoist insurgency. Comment: Grim Outlook in New Delhi -------------- ¶4. (C) In the three years that we have been discussing the politics of Nepal, Rae has never been more negative about the possibility of a favorable negotiated outcome. The MEA appears to have given up on the hope that the Palace will reach an accommodation with the political parties, and now seems to be pinning its hopes on boosting the capacity and competency of the parties to offer a credible governing structure without falling prey to Maoist schemes to gain political legitimacy and power. Rae was clear about the menace that the Maoists represent, but also noted -- without admitting a shift in GOI policy -- that there was a growing consensus in New Delhi that Nepal's political future lies with some form of republican government. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http//www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi) MULFORD