INDIAN MINISTER: NEPAL'S KING UNREPENTANT, BUT GOI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006847

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV IN NP
SUBJECT: INDIAN MINISTER: NEPAL'S KING UNREPENTANT, BUT GOI
WILL NOT BLINK

Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Indian Minister Jaipal Reddy told us that
Nepal's King Gyanendra was unrepentant in a discussion at the
August 29 SAARC information ministers' meeting. The King is
hoping India will blink, but it will not, Reddy said. In the
meantime, he argued, the Maoists are gaining ground and
Indian naxalites are deriving encouragement from their
Nepalese counterparts' political success. End Summary.

King Unrepentant, India Will Not Blink
--------------


2. (C) Nepal's King Gyanendra was "unrepentant" in an August
29 meeting with SAARC Information Ministers, Indian Minister
of Information and Broadcasting Jaipal Reddy told A/DCM and
Poloff on September 2. In a forum with all SAARC ministers,
the King spoke primarily with Reddy and his Pakistani
counterpart, the minister said. Reddy told Gyanendra and his
Pakistani interlocutor that their arguments about Western
laws being tightened post-9/11 were inapplicable to their own
countries, as Western actions were aimed at enemies, and
could not be used as an argument to "deny democracy to one's
own people." Reddy also warned the Nepalese ministers in
attendance that the Maoists have gained ground in the six
months since the King seized power.


3. (C) Reddy, a senior Congress Party leader, noted that the
King is very concerned about the GOI position on restoration
of democratic governance, and expects New Delhi to give in.
However, he predicted, the Indian Cabinet "will not blink,"
because New Delhi recognizes that giving in to the King would
only strengthen the Maoists' position. While the BJP wants
to support the monarchy, he reported, solid Left Front
support will buttress the GOI stance to hold out for a
restoration of democracy.

Maoists Gaining in Nepal and India
--------------


4. (C) Reddy opined that the King's continuation of
feudalism would over time further advantage the Maoist
insurgency. Because Gyanendra removed the buffer of the
political parties between himself and the people, the
Nepalese public is becoming further opposed to monarchy,
Reddy commented, and the Maoists are gaining ground in public
opinion.


5. (C) Worse, Indian naxalite Maoists are deriving "fresh
inspiration" from perceived Maoist success in Nepal, Reddy
observed, adding that a Maoist takeover would threaten not
only democracy in Nepal but also India. (Reddy's home state
of Andhra Pradesh has its own naxalite insurgency.) The King
is gambling that India's security interests would force New
Delhi to intervene in a crisis, but the GOI is maintaining
its stand for democracy, Reddy stated.

Comment: Staying the Course
--------------


6. (C) Reddy's presentation came across as much more
heartfelt than the points we hear from MEA bureaucrats. His
observations confirm that, while the Palace continues to
insist to GOI interlocutors that its actions are both
necessary and ultimately democratic, the UPA government has
no intentions of giving up its insistence on democracy.
Unfortunately, Reddy's interactions with Gyanendra did not
provide him any insights on how to convince the King to back
down from his position.


7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http//www.state.sgov/p/sa/newdelhi)
MULFORD