INDIA'S SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE DOMINATES MUSLIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000594

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2015
TAGS: KISL PGOV PINR PREL PTER SCUL IN IR IZ
SUBJECT: INDIA'S SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE DOMINATES MUSLIM
ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE IRAQ ELECTION

Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Indian Shias are excited about the prospect
of a Shia government in Iraq, revere Ayatollah Sistani and
support the January 30 election. This does not mean,
however, that they are pro-American, as they also want US
troops to depart Iraq as soon as possible and Iraq and Iran
to have close and friendly ties. A leading Shia cleric
reflected the views of the larger community when he asserted
that India's Sunnis do not share these views and distrust the
Shia assent to power in Iraq, with some harboring quiet
sympathy with the insurgency and its call for an election
boycott. Although influential in their stronghold in
Lucknow, the Shia are a relatively small and economically
disadvantaged community in India (numbering an estimated 14
million),and as a result, their views regarding events in
Iraq will not be the last word on Indian reaction to the Iraq
elections. However, we will seek to encourage them to
project their support for upcoming elections to wider Indian
audiences. End Summary.

Zahir Iftikhari
--------------


2. (C) Zahir Iftikhari is an influential Shia cleric from
Lucknow. His grandfather was a famous Shia scholar, who
wrote a number of influential books on Islam. Iftikhari is
playing a prominent role in recent Indian Shia moves to leave
the current Muslim Personal Law Board and establish a
strictly Shia organization. He spent seventeen years
studying Islam in Iraq and is a fluent Arabic speaker,
although he does not speak English. With his sterling
reputation and large following, Iftikhari often speaks on
behalf of India's Shia community. Like many Indian Shia, he
follows Iraqi politics in minute detail. He met with Poloff
on January 20.

Iraqi Shias' Big Day
--------------


3. (C) Iftikhari asserted that Indian Shias strongly support
the January 30 Iraqi elections, and predicted that there
would be a large Shia turnout. January 30 is a Shia holiday
and Iraqi Shias are likely to be out and about and in a
festive mood. Iftikhari expected Iraqi Shias to ignore the
Sunni boycott call, and looked forward to a peaceful
assumption of power by their community, after having been
denied political rights under Sunni rule for so long.


4. (C) Iftikhari was adamant that Iraqi Shia would not
establish an Iranian style theocracy when they assume power
in Baghdad. Pointing out that the Shia had experienced
repression, murder and destruction of their holy places under
Saddam, he projected that they would be munificent towards
the Sunni, not attempt to gain retribution, and make
concessions to head off communal violence. Iftikhari
downplayed the likelihood of a Sunni/Shia civil war after the
election, asserting that Baathist supporters of Saddam are
behind most of the terrorism, and that a quick trial and
execution of Saddam and his associates would end the violence
and the threat of civil war.

Minority Within a Minority
--------------


5. (C) According to Iftikhari, Shias in India tolerate their
Sunni brethren, but the Sunnis have no tolerance for Shia
Islam, and treat Shias as second class citizens. He asserted
that this difference is reflected in the attitudes of the two
communities regarding the Iraqi election, with Indian Sunni
supporting a boycott and delay and Shias eager to see the
election go forward as planned. Likewise, he noted, Indian
Shia have no sympathy with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other
Sunnis in Iran who are committing acts of terrorism, implying
that Indian Sunnis are more equivocal on this score.


6. (C) Iftikhari asserted that Indian Shias are united
behind Ayatollah Sistani and will adhere to his calls to
support the Iraq election and to create a secular state.
Indian Shia also want strict controls on the power of the
Iraqi government to interfere with the personal lives of
Iraq's citizens, as the Indian Shia are a minority within the
larger Indian Muslim minority, and realize the importance of
tolerance.


7. (C) Although Iran is the leading Shia nation, Iftikari
pointed out, that its government has little or no credibility
with Indian Shias, who view it as too orthodox and
authoritarian. Despite this, Indian Shia praise Ayatollah
Khomeini for fighting only against Iraq's Baathist government
and never supporting terrorism against Sunni civilians. He
also claimed that Khomeini only overthrew the Shah after his
despotism became unbearable, and with the "complete support
of Iran's population." He predicted that after the election
there would be much closer interaction between Iran and Iraq,
as "99 percent of Iranians" will come to Iraq to visit the
holy places.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Iftikhari is only one of many Shia leaders who have
told Poloff of their support for the elections in Iraq.
However, this does not necessarily translate into backing for
continued American involvement there. Most Shia expect
Sistani to be the real power in Iraq after the polls, that he
will call for the coalition forces to withdraw, and that the
Iraqi government will distance itself from the US after our
troops depart. Sunni contacts confirm Iftikari's assessment,
in that they largely oppose American involvement in Iraq and
the elections, which they view as a Shia power grab. India's
shia -- especially the clerical hierarchy in Lucknow --
maintain a tight link to Iraq, and were a factor in the GOI's
2002 decision not to deploy military forces. However, the
Shia are a minority within the Muslim community (estimated at
10 percent of 140 million),so their view is not the last
word on Indian reaction to the Iraq elections.


9. (U) Minimize Considered
MULFORD