INDO-PAK RAPPROCHEMENT CONTINUES DESPITE TERROR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005447 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015 TAGS: PTER PREL ENRG ETRD KDEM IN PK INDO PAK SUBJECT: INDO-PAK RAPPROCHEMENT CONTINUES DESPITE TERROR SPIKE REF: A. NEW DELHI 5446 ¶B. NEW DELHI 5226 ¶C. NEW DELHI 4689 ¶D. NEW DELHI 4449 ¶E. NEW DELHI 3745 Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a July 14 meeting, MEA Joint Secretary Dilip Sinha reassured us that Indo-Pak rapprochement would continue despite indications Islamabad is ramping up cross-border infiltration and terrorism. The Composite Dialogue round is half-way through but there has been no progress in the three most recent sessions. Bad luck in Pakistan, in the form of rising food prices and a damaged Internet cable, have led to ad hoc progress on very specific trade issues. Taking a cue from our forthcoming democracy initiative and the Secretary's democracy remarks in Cairo, Sinha asked if Musharraf would be held to the same standard. End Summary. Pakistan's Prime Export: Terror -------------- ¶2. (C) Remarking on the recent spike in terrorist infiltration and attacks (Ref B),Sinha told us that the tempo was "back to business as usual." For example, he said that one of the Babar Khalsa terrorists apprehended after the Delhi cinema bombings (Ref E) had spent time in Lahore. He remained cautious regarding the Ayodhya attack, saying only that the police had not yet made any definite connections. Remarking on the upsurge in attacks in both India and Afghanistan (Ref A),he asked rhetorically, "If Musharraf is not in control, how was he able to quiet terrorism before the Afghan presidential election?" ¶3. (C) Bilateral relations can only normalize if the violence stops, Sinha continued. The availability of advanced weapons and undetectable explosives has changed the entire atmosphere in India; in the 1980s the President and the PM could safely take evening strolls without security cordons, which is impossible today. To PolCouns' question, Sinha offered in principle to renew his predecessor J/S AK Singh's practice of arranging intelligence-based briefings on cross-border terrorism trends (Ref D). Composite Dialogue Crawling Along -------------- ¶4. (C) The Composite Dialogue will continue despite the increase in terrorism, Sinha told us. Three sets of talks are coming up -- on friendly exchanges (in late July),trade (early August),and terrorism/drug trafficking (mid-August) -- followed by the Foreign Secretaries' meeting in September. Also, the GOI and GOP are locking in dates for a meeting of the private sector Joint Business Council to intensify bilateral trade that figured prominently in the April 18 Joint Statement. Without speculating on how useful these talks might be, he reported that the there was no progress at all in the three sets of talks he attended: -- On Siachen Glacier, Sinha "understood that it was a zero-sum game," and progress there would inevitably be slow at best. -- Sir Creek (May 28-29) "should have been easy," Sinha told us, but "Pakistan's attitude was unhelpful." The sides had agreed on the land border based on the pillars that were surveyed in January, but Islamabad refused to delineate either the creek itself or the maritime boundary from the sea to the mouth of the creek. -- On Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project (June 28-29), the two sides again failed to move the issue forward, though that suited Islamabad's agenda of stalling the project itself. ¶5. (C) GOI Interlocutor on Kashmir NN Vohra separately confirmed that talks continue, but asserted that the Pakistan side is under instruction to commit to nothing while running out the clock. He speculated this was perhaps so Musharraf could claim credit as a deal maker when he next meets Prime Minister Singh. Some Good Indo-Pak News -------------- ¶6. (C) Sinha underlined that there was some recent positive movement between New Delhi and Islamabad, which came from two problems that Pakistan had recently experienced. Rising food prices in Pakistan led the GOP to drop import duties and to authorize direct imports of five important food staples from India: potatoes, tomatoes, onions, garlic and wheat. Also, after a cable fault knocked out Pakistan's sole Internet link, Islamabad inquired about running a fiber-optic cable from Lahore to Amritsar to connect with India's network. The cable has since been repaired, but talks on connecting to India's network continue with both the Indian government operators and IT behemoth Reliance Industries. Sinha was hopeful this Internet project would go ahead, despite the passing of the emergency requirement. ¶7. (C) Sinha also commented favorably on recent political developments in J&K. The separatists' visit to Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir (Ref C) went well -- "they did not follow ISI's script." He was also cautiously upbeat on pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS Geelani being sidelined by Islamabad. That said, he was frustrated by tight GOP limits on the number of travelers on the Kashmir bus, and noted that visas have also been restricted for some other categories of Indian visitors (the Hindustan Times's Manoj Joshi, for instance, was recently denied a visa because of offending articles). Promoting Democracy: Did You Forget About Musharraf? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Closing, Sinha remarked on the fate of democracy in Pakistan, observing that "dictators prefer local elections over national democracy," and that there were no signs that Musharraf would permit the return of Pakistan's three exiled political party leaders (Nawaz Sharif, Benazir Bhutto, and Altaf Hussain). "Pakistan seems exempt from the requirement that nations must embrace democracy to gain favor with the US," he lamented. In light of our upcoming bilateral democracy initiative, Sinha expressed the hope that Washington will remember this element of its Pakistan policy. Comment: Peace Still the Flavor of the Season -------------- ¶9. (C) Sinha's cautious optimism about the Indo-Pak peace process, despite the recent uptick in terrorism underlines that Delhi is staying the diplomatic course set by the PM and that the MEA remains measured in its assessments. However, the frustration Sinha expressed about Pakistan's lack of movement towards democracy reflects a widening concern here that the GOI has still to find a sustainable formula for stabilizing its relationship with Pakistan. BLAKE