SEEKING ELECTORAL GAINS LEFT PARTIES COME DOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005108

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2015
TAGS: MARR MASS PGOV PINR PINS PREL IN US
SUBJECT: SEEKING ELECTORAL GAINS LEFT PARTIES COME DOWN
HARD ON US/INDIA DEFENSE AGREEMENT, RAISE STAKES FOR PM'S
JULY 18 VISIT

Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: India's Left parties have severely criticized
the "New Framework for the US-India Defense Relationship"
signed by SecDef Rumsfeld and DefMin Mukherjee on June 28,
despite initial positive reviews from most Indian media and
strategic commentators, and will hold street demonstrations
against it on July 8. The CPI(M) politburo's July 2
statement criticizes the agreement for tying the GOI too
closely to the US and the UPA for ignoring previous promises
to pursue an independent foreign policy and "multipolarity."
The Communist stance is ideologically consistent and is tied
to their opposition to UPA domestic and economic initiatives.
The Communists expect to do very well in upcoming
Legislative Assembly elections in West Bengal and Kerala and
want to demonstrate to their party faithful that their
support for the UPA does not mean that they have sacrificed
their independence. That being said, their public attack on
the Defense Minister's US visit raises the stakes for Prime
Minister Singh to secure substantial deliverables from his
Washington visit that he can cite to critics of the
transformed US-India relationship. End Summary

Virulent Criticism
--------------


2. (U) The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M),
India's largest and most powerful Communist party, issued a
scathing denunciation of the recently-concluded US-India
defense agreement on July 2, and called for nationwide
demonstrations against the agreement on July 8. Describing
the agreement as a "major step," the CPI-M criticized the
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government for placing
India in the same category as Japan, South Korea and the
Philippines, "all traditional military allies of the US."


3. (U) The CPI(M)'s specific objections included:

--The agreement did not mention the Common Minimum Program
(CMP),the GOI's ambitious social welfare agenda.

--The UPA did not first determine whether such an agreement
was in line with its earlier commitment to "pursue an
independent foreign policy and promote multipolarity in
international relations."

--The agreement commits the GOI and the USG to "collaborate
in multinational operations when it is in their common
interest," without mentioning whether "it would be under the
auspices of the United Nations."

--This allows Indian forces to be used in US-led military
operations under US command.

--According to the CPI(M),the agreement demonstrates that
the UPA does not "view security issues in Asia as those which
can be discussed and resolved among the Asian countries, but
seeks to advance US interests in the region."

--The party claimed that the real object of the agreement was
"containment of China, using India as a counterweight."


4. (U) The CPI(M) also expressed "surprise" that "the UPA
government has continued with the Vajpayee government's
policy with regard to missile defense," arguing that the US
is trying to draw India into its missile defense shield
"under the cover of the US providing the Patriot missile
system." The party denounced plans for co-production of
defense equipment as a ploy to "lure India to buy F-16
fighter planes and open the market for US weaponry.


5. (U) In a separate statement the much smaller Communist
Party of India (Marxist-Leninist),which has a Maoist
orientation, decried the agreement as an attempt by the US to
"impose its unipolar hegemony," pointing out that "the move
initiated by Russia and China to invite India into an Asian
grouping to challenge US hegemony was quite disturbing to the
US."

Left Objectives
--------------


6. (C) The CPI(M) and its communist partners likely objected
to the defense agreement for these reasons:

--Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee is, like much of the
CPI(M) leadership, a Bengali, and both come from the same
Bengali leftist political tradition. As the UPA liaison with
the all-important left parties, Mukherjee's job is to keep
the Left happy and ensure that they continue to support the
UPA coalition. With its criticism of the defense agreement,
the CPI(M) has put Mukherjee on notice that it is not happy
with his performance and he must demonstrate more sympathy
towards the left agenda.
--The CPI(M) faces legislative elections in its two key
strong-holds of West Bengal and Kerala this year and expects
to win big victories in both contests. As part of its
preparation for the elections and to rally the party cadre,
it is emphasizing its ideological roots and demonstrating
that it is not subservient to Congress.

--Communist popularity is growing and the Left parties have
ambitious plans to expand into other states, notably Bihar
and Andhra Pradesh. The BJP/NDA tailspin and the increase in
Communist popularity has fueled increasing speculation that
the Left may eventually replace the BJP as the principal
opposition to Congress. The Communist leadership is eager to
carve out a space well to the left of Congress and
demonstrate their independence.

The BJP Line
--------------


7. (U) In contrast to the Left, the BJP endorsed the defense
agreement. Jaswant Singh, the BJP leader in the Rajya Sabha
described it as a "strategic watershed," noting that, "as far
as defense preparedness goes, it is welcome from the point of
view of diversification of weapons systems." Singh also
expressed a note of caution, pointing out that it will be "a
complex process," as the current environment was "not
conducive to new and bold initiatives."

Domestic and Foreign
--------------


8. (C) Communist objection to the defense pact and many
elements of the US-India relationship reiterates Left
objections to the pro-American foreign policy and complements
Communist stances on domestic and economic issues. The
Communists have refused to back down on their objection to
alleged UPA "privatization" of the profit-making public
sector Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL),and have
sponsored demonstrations and work stoppages to protest
petroleum price hikes. It now plans similar protests against
the defense agreement.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The Left's demonstrated disdain for Mukherjee's visit
is a sharp departure from the overwhelmingly positive
reaction of strategic analysts and most media. However, the
virulent criticism heaped by the Left on Mukherjee's visit to
the US in general, and on the defense agreement specifically,
may be a harbinger of the domestic criticism that the Prime
Minister may face during his July 18-21 visit to the US.
Such vitriol raises the stakes for the PM's visit in terms of
what Congress will need to do to allay the Left's concerns
that the party has effectively abandoned India's principles
of independence and multipolarity. The Communists' public
attack on the Defense Minister's US visit will increase
pressure on Prime Minister Singh to secure substantial
deliverables from his Washington visit.
BLAKE