PM OPTIMISTIC ON INDO-PAK BUT COUNSELS AGAINST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004089

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER ENRG CE IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: PM OPTIMISTIC ON INDO-PAK BUT COUNSELS AGAINST
DEADLINES

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3745

B. NEW DELHI 3213

C. NEW DELHI 1480

Classified By: Acting DCM Geoff Pyatt, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (U) Summary: Speaking to foreign journalists on May 30
regarding the UPA government's one year anniversary, PM
Manmohan Singh offered an upbeat assessment of Indo-Pak
relations, but warned that a major terrorist attack could
still derail the peace process. He also advised against
artificial deadlines for any settlement. Focusing on the
positive effects of CBMs with Pakistan, the PM said New Delhi
would consider greater autonomy for J&K "if needed." The PM
expressed his desire for a peaceful resolution to the
conflict in Sri Lanka and denied opposition claims that
Congress Party leader Sonia Gandhi was interfering with
government operations. End Summary.

PM Upbeat on Indo-Pak, Seeks More CT Action by Islamabad
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2. (U) In his May 30 foreign correspondents briefing, the PM
announced that he looked forward to a future visit to
Pakistan, proclaiming that "I do believe we have moved
forward." Consistent with previous statements, Singh said
that he was willing to discuss all issues with the GOP and
work to find a "meaningful solution" with two limitations:
"no further division of India on religious lines," and no
redrawing borders.


3. (U) Singh highlighted confidence-building measures such
as joint water resources management in Kashmir and efforts to
resolve the Baglihar Dam dispute (Ref B) and other cross
border water issues (Ref C) and was optimistic that increased
economic and people-to-people interaction would further
improve India-Pakistan relations. He stressed the importance
of a secure Pakistan as India's bridge to Central Asia, but
he did not mention Iran or any other Central Asian countries
by name in this context. Singh did offer that all parties
involved in the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline
could work together to make the project a reality, and noted
the US-India dialogue on the issue.


4. (U) Responding to Pakistan President Musharraf's prior
public remarks that peace could be concluded by the end of
both leaders' tenures, Singh said that fixing a timeline
would be "unrealistic." He did indicate that India would
consider greater autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir "if needed."


5. (U) The overall tone of Singh's remarks was optimistic,
although he cautioned that a major terrorist attack,
comparable to those on Parliament and the Kashmir State
Assembly in late 2001, could erase the gains made in Indo-Pak
rapprochement. Singh reiterated that the "first condition"
for normalization was "control of terrorist acts," cautioning
that although progress has been made, Pakistan has not done
enough to dismantle its terrorist infrastructure.

Media Spin More Negative Than PM's Remarks
--------------


6. (C) Some journalists chose to emphasize these cautionary
statements as the main focus of the PM's remarks, concluding
that the PM is less hopeful about relations with Pakistan
than commonly thought. However, Dawn's New Delhi
correspondent Jawed Naqvi, who attended the press conference,
insisted to Poloff that those journalists took the terrorism
remarks out of context and that the PM was indeed optimistic.
Naqvi reported that Singh emphasized the need to keep moving
forward on issues like water and energy cooperation with
Pakistan.

Other Issues Addressed
--------------


7. (U) The PM paid less attention to other outstanding
issues. For example, in response to a question on dangers
from LTTE naval and air bases in Sri Lanka, Singh said that
India has a "very vital stake" in Sri Lankan unity and
peaceful resolution of the ethnic conflict. Singh also
denied opposition allegations that Sonia Gandhi was
"interfering" with the workings of the government.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Reporters who attended the conference were initially
told it would be "informal" and "off the record" and were not
prepared to file reports. Caught unawares, they rushed to
get their stories filed, resulting in confusion and
contradiction. In our estimation, Singh's remarks were
consistent with recent MEA optimism on Indo-Pak relations,
and reflect the PM's continued personal commitment to peace
with Pakistan (Ref A). The PM is ready to work with GOP and
is confident that CBMs and increased economic interaction
will contribute to better relations. Although some news
outlets chose to over-emphasize the few comments about the
potential of a terrorist attack to derail the peace process,
these were taken out of context. That being said, it is
notable that the PM chose to counsel publicly against
deadlines for the Indo-Pak process.
BLAKE