NSA NARAYANAN PRESSES FOR ACTION AGAINST LET, WELCOMES EXCHANGE ON NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003717



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2015

TAGS: PREL, PTER, MASS, NP, PK, IN, INDO-PAK

SUBJECT: NSA NARAYANAN PRESSES FOR ACTION AGAINST LET,

WELCOMES EXCHANGE ON NEPAL





Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)



1. (C) Summary: In a May 17 meeting with the Charge and

PolCouns (other topics septel) Indian NSA MK Narayanan

offered an upbeat readout on the state of Indo-Pak relations,

and implied that the GOI will push for progress at the

upcoming Siachen Glacier talks, but cautioned that more

concerted GOP action against Lashkar-e-Taiba is important to

insulate the peace process from an upsurge in terrorist

violence. On Nepal, Narayanan expressed satisfaction about

close US-India cooperation, and welcomed the prospect of an

experts exchange to refine our respective understandings of

RNA ammunition supplies. The NSA shared the Indian Army

assessment that RNA supplies could last for another few

months, but conceded this might not allow the Army to pursue

the Maoists actively. Narayanan indicated that the

long-stalled US-India Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement is

being readied for Defense Minister Mukherjee's late June

visit to Washington. End Summary.



ACSA Moving Ahead

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2. (C) The charge opened discussion by congratulating the NSA

on the government's unexpectedly rapid passage of a strong

export control bill, and reviewed preparations for the Prime

Minister's July visit to Washington (details septel).

Narayanan was visibly pleased about passage of the export

control bill, and noted that the government had carefully

briefed the opposition in advance to ensure smooth progress

through Parliament. He added laughingly that the BJP boycott

probably helped to speed passage. Narayanan was generally

upbeat about the state of our bilateral relationship, but

complained that the Indian Space agency (ISRO) has an

impression that Washington is being unhelpful, pointing for

instance to restrictions on a proposed Boeing satellite

program. Reviewing proposals from Secretary Rice's recent

visit and the March 25 South Asia initiative, the Charge

underlined our commitment to moving forward across the

bilateral relationship. Narayanan (helpfully) indicated that

the long-stalled Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA)

is being readied for Defense Minister Mukherjee's late June

visit to Washington.



Explaining Nepal Shift

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3. (C) Turning to Nepal, Narayanan indicated that the GOI

decision to proceed with military assistance in the pipeline

reflected an intention to "give the King the benefit of the

doubt" even though some in the government (especially the

Foreign Office) "are not sure where the King stands on

democracy." Narayanan welcomed the convergence of Indian and

US strategies, adding that he had spoken with UK NSA

Sheinwald to explain that the Indian announcement was "not so

much a change in policy as a concession." The Charge flagged

our concern about RNA ammunition supplies, noting that we

might need consider deliveries soon to maintain the Army's

operational readiness. Narayanan shared the Indian MOD

belief that the RNA "can manage for a few months," while

conceding that too tight a supply line would leave the Army

unable challenge the Maoists in offensive operations. He

flagged a particular GOI concern that the RNA not use

Indian-supplied material against the political parties or

civilian demonstrators, and indicated that New Delhi had

INSAS ammunition in the pipeline that it would have to decide

soon how to handle. "It's a delicate situation," the NSA

conceded, adding that ultimately the GOI "can't run another

country."



Cautiously Optimistic on Indo-Pak, Concerned about LET

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4. (C) Narayanan said New Delhi was concerned about the

recent up-tick of terrorist violence in J&K, "but did not see

this as a result of a change in the Pakistani approach."

Although the GOI is carefully examining the recent car

bombing in Srinagar, he continued, the recent violence

appears to be the action of "random groups," which is

"something we have to live with." Nonetheless, Narayanan was

worried about the continued activities of Lashkar-e-Taiba

(LET),calling this the "touchstone" of Indo-Pak relations

that will determine the sustainability of the Indo-Pak peace

process. Invoking his own career as an intelligence

professional, Narayanan noted the GOI views LET as a wholly

owned subsidiary of ISI. Responding to PolCouns' description

of recent UN action against LET, the NSA remarked that "I've

run operations against foreign governments and I can't accept

this talk of rogue elements." He recalled that a recent GOI

operation rolled up three of four LET cells that planned to

target the Indian military academy. But what happened to the

fourth, the NSA asked? And what about the others we have not

identified? "That's what I'm worried about," Narayanan

added, warning that counterterrorism is not a predictable

science. As long as GOP support to LET continues (and

Naraynan implied that the GOI has seen no change in this

regard) the risk remains of a major terrorist attack linked

to Lashkar that would torpedo the process of Indo-Pak

rapproachment.



5. (C) Narayanan reported that the PM had instructed all his

subordinates that "we need to accept Musharraf's bonafides,

even on Siachen" (a reference to the upcoming Defense

Secretaries talks). With this guidance in mind, the MOD has



SIPDIS

been instructed "to take as flexible a position as possible"

for the May 25-26 negotiations. The NSA seemed oddly removed

from the activities of back channel envoy Satish Lambah.

Asked about the next round of Lambah talks with his Pakistani

counterpart, Narayanan remarked "that's a good question" and

indicated that he needed to check up on Lambah's activities

(we have heard from the Pakistanis that Lambah and Aziz will

meet before the Siachen talks). Narayanan indicated that he

is in contact with Musharraf adviser Tariq Aziz on issues of

immediate operational significance ("If Musharraf wants to

know something right away, Aziz gives me a call"),but

indicated that the long-term Indo-Pak negotiations lie with

Lambah.

BLAKE