C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 003250

SIPDIS

NSC FOR GREEN/DORMANDY
LONDON FOR POL-BELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM MASS KDEM IN NP
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER SHOOTS DOWN ARMS FOR NEPAL

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3164


B. NEW DELHI 3086

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (U) Reaffirming India's position that the GOI wants to
see meaningful steps toward restoration of democracy before
resuming military assistance to Nepal (Ref B), Foreign
Minister Natwar Singh told the upper house of Parliament on
April 28 that following the arrest the day before of former
PM Deuba, military aid "will remain under review."
Describing King Gyanendra's April 23 "assurances" to him and
PM Manmohan Singh publicly for the first time, the Foreign
Minister reported that the monarch had promised that he would
"unwind" the state of emergency and press restrictions
(including the ban on Indian TV channels) and release the
remaining political prisoners, and alluded to but did not
spell out that the King expected Indian arms supplies to
resume as a result. Additionally, Natwar stated, the Prime
Minister and Foreign Minister had stressed for the King the
need to "restart the political process, meet all the
political party leaders, and from there ensure that elections
are held and Parliament is recalled and the Government is
formed."


2. (C) Calling Deuba's arrest "a matter of very deep
regret," Natwar told the Parliament that "for the last three
months the situation deteriorated rapidly." However, India's
"unique relationship" poses a "difficulty" in formulating
policy. While reiterating the GOI's desire to assist in an
"amicable and friendly manner," the Foreign Minister bluntly
warned that "India had all the leverages; we have not used
any of them." While New Delhi press continue to report
pressure from the Indian armed forces to resume the arms
supply to Nepal, MEA Undersecretary (Nepal) Manu Mahawar told
Poloff on April 29 that the King's actions had "set his cause
back" within the GOI.

Comment
--------------


3. (C) The arrest this week of the Nepalese oppositionist
has significantly soured GOI attitudes toward the King,
dampening optimistic scenarios arising out of the April 22-23
meetings in Jakarta which suggested a democracy-for-military
assistance swap as a way out of the current impasse. The
King's latest actions will make it more difficult for the GOI
to accept future positive steps by the palace as sufficient
progress to justify a resumption of arms supplies (something
its leftist governing partners already strongly oppose).
Press accounts of pressure from the military for a quick
resumption of assistance support our earlier reporting (Ref
A) of disagreement between the MoD and the MEA on arms supply.
BLAKE