INDIA LOOKING TO "SUBSTANTIATE" RELATIONS DURING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003132

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2015
TAGS: PREL ETRD ENRG KNNP IN UNSC
SUBJECT: INDIA LOOKING TO "SUBSTANTIATE" RELATIONS DURING
KOIZUMI VISIT

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3087


B. SINGAPORE 1114

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: For Japanese PM Junichiro Koizumi's April
28-30 visit to New Delhi, the GOI will be focused on giving
the relationship greater strategic and multilateral breadth,
and solidifying Japan's support for India's UNSC campaign,
according to our senior MEA interlocutors. Following Chinese
Premier Wen's pointed advice to India to rethink its UNSC
partnership with Japan, that aspect of the visit will be a
strength test for the G-4 pact. The GOI also plans to
discuss boosting economic relations, to include high-tech
trade, but is looking for signals that Japan has put aside
its resentment over India's 1998 nuclear tests, a sentiment
the MEA would like us to encourage in Tokyo. Asian regional
architecture will be on the agenda as well, including India's
bid to attend the East Asia Summit. In view of the tacit
recognition in New Delhi that China has not backed India
unconditionally for the UNSC, the PM is unlikely to break up
the G-4, as Wen had advised. End Summary.

The Agenda
--------------


2. (C) In an April 22 conversation with PolCouns and Poloff,
MEA Joint Secretary Ashok Kantha (China, Japan) summed up
India's broad approach to the Koizumi visit as an attempt to
inject "greater strategic focus" into a bilateral agenda that
is by far the least substantial of any Indian P-5
relationship. To "substantiate" their ties, the GOI will
seek to add a "strategic dimension," moving beyond bilateral
relations to cooperate on "regional and multilateral issues,"
Kantha explained, suggesting naval maritime security
exercises in the Indian Ocean as a potential area of
expansion. Boosting economic interaction, particularly in
the area of science and technology, will be another priority.
Kantha commented that two-way trade had stagnated at a very
low level (a paltry USD 4 billion per year since the
mid-1990s),elaborating that the root problem was Indian lack
of understanding of the Japanese, and vice versa.

UNSC Drama
--------------


3. (C) A major part of India's agenda will be the UNSC and
UN reform more generally. As members of the G-4 club of
Security Council aspirants, India and Japan have previously
offered each other their mutual endorsement. This visit,
however, comes in the aftermath of the April 9-12 Wen visit
(ref A) during which, Kantha told us, the Chinese leader
warned PM Manmohan Singh that "India's interests (with
respect to the UNSC) are not well served," by throwing in its
lot with Japan. While Wen offered "fairly categorical
support" for India's bid (according to Kantha),New Delhi
joining Japan "complicates this," he had said. The J/S
recounted that the PM stiff-armed Wen's advice, noting that
New Delhi stood by its commitment to Tokyo. He added that
perhaps the GOJ is under the impression that because the US
supports its bid, that Japan's permanent membership is a
foregone conclusion. Kantha cautioned, however, that Wen had
told the PM that it would not be possible for China to
support Japan.

A Little Help From Our Friends
--------------


4. (C) India is also eyeing Japanese high technology, but
recalling Japanese condemnation of the GOI's 1998 nuclear
test, Kantha remarked that some "prodding" from the US would
help Tokyo to overcome its "psychological barrier" against
high-tech trade with India. Referring to Japanese
"proselytizing," he complained that the GOJ "Foreign Office
fundamentalists" still regularly raise NPT and CTBT signature
with New Delhi. Kantha hoped that the US-India example might
inspire Japan to be able to disagree with India on some
issues, such as the NPT, but still develop other areas of the
strategic relationship. Suggesting that Tokyo may need less
prodding than the MEA thinks, the Japanese Embassy recently
told us that they were interested in exploring civil nuclear
cooperation with New Delhi, along the lines of the US Energy
Dialogue with India.

The EAS and Beyond
--------------


5. (C) Despite the apparent decision to include India (ref
B) in the first East Asia Summit (EAS),the MEA does not
consider its lobbying work done. Kantha observed that
although it looks like India will be included, this
invitation has not been "formalized" yet, and that the GOI
will press the matter with Koizumi. Noting that India and
Japan shared a similar perspective, Kantha remarked that both
countries did not want the EAS to be "China dominated."
PolCouns highlighted our view that the new grouping should
not be exclusive, to which the J/S responded that the GOI was
comfortable with the US as "an active player." Because of
the US role in Asia, he asserted, there should be an
institutional arrangement whereby Washington is part of the
process, adding that Secretary Rice's remarks at Sofia
University had resonated well with the GOI.


6. (C) Playing down India's likely invitation to the Summit,
Kantha asserted that New Delhi sees the EAS as "part of a
larger, long term architecture in Asia," adding that the GOI
would like to work with Tokyo in shaping it. India will
explore with Koizumi a "new Asian era," which may not be
operational immediately, but would have future possibilities.
New Delhi's goal, he stated, was to be part of the "core"
shaping the process. Parenthetically, Kantha also wondered
aloud how India could continue to be excluded from APEC,
calling it a "misnomer" without GOI participation.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) New Delhi expects from the Koizumi trip the same kind
of perspective shift that came out of the Wen visit during
which the PRC for the first time recognized India as globally
significant. In view of the tacit recognition in New Delhi
that China has not exactly backed India for the UNSC, the PM
is not likely to break up the G-4, as Wen had advised. The
GOI recognizes that the India-Japan relationship is vastly
underdeveloped, especially compared to New Delhi's rapidly
expanding agenda with the other P-5 members. As with other
aspects of the GOI's thrust into East Asia, the encounter
between India and Japan advances the US interest in building
networks of market-oriented democracies that share a common
view of challenges like terrorism, proliferation, and
strategic stability in Asia.
BLAKE