Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI2994
2005-04-21 13:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
MEA SAYS ""CRICKET SUMMIT"" RE-FRAMED INDO-PAK AGENDA
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002994
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: MEA SAYS ""CRICKET SUMMIT"" RE-FRAMED INDO-PAK AGENDA
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 5490
B. NEW DELHI 2884
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002994
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: MEA SAYS ""CRICKET SUMMIT"" RE-FRAMED INDO-PAK AGENDA
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 5490
B. NEW DELHI 2884
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: In a March 20 meeting with PolCouns and Poloff, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion that India had obtained more than Pakistan from the ""Cricket Summit,"" highlighting Manmohan Singh's vision of a new agenda for Indo-Pak relations that transcends borders and reduces the relevance of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs. Sinha emphasized that the PM has also taken a risk by pushing the notion of ""soft borders"" at a time when terrorist infrastructure remains intact on the Pakistani side. This will be sustainable, he argued, only so long as the level of infiltration remains low. Sinha agreed that the visit produced a number of important Kashmir-related CBMs, and although the expert-level talks in the Composite Dialogue were not finalized, the Foreign Secretaries will meet in August to pave the way for another meeting between Musharraf and PM Manmohan Singh, either at the UNGA or during a Singh visit to Pakistan. Details on expanding rail and bus links as outlined in the April 18 Joint Statement are still to be worked out. Sinha noted that the presence of Railways Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav in the delegation that met Musharraf served the PM's purpose of expanding the ""peace constituency"" beyond Congress. He also credited US pressure stemming from the GWOT and the vast expansion of people-to-people exchanges for the ""new"" Musharraf. End Summary.
180 Degree Change from Agra
--------------
2. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion in some press accounts that India had received more than Pakistan from the ""Cricket Summit,"" emphasizing Manmohan Singh's vision of different kind of Indo-Pak relationship that transcends borders and reduces the relevance of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs.
Admitting that he had been ""surprised by how positive"" the April 16-18 visit of President Musharraf to India was, Sinha called it the most successful Indo-Pak summit in years, if not ever, and agreed that the Pakistani President's behavior in New Delhi was a 180-degree change from that in Agra in July 2001. The J/S noted that interpersonal vibes had been excellent, and that the new CBMs would undoubtedly accelerate because of the visit.
Cautious on Infiltration
--------------
3. (C) Sinha emphasized that the Indian PM had also taken a risk by pushing the notion of soft borders at a time when the infrastructure of terrorism remains intact on the Pakistani side. This will be sustainable, he argued, only so long as the level of infiltration remains low. Although Musharraf reaffirmed his January 6, 2004 promise not to let terrorists operate from Pakistani-controlled territory, the GOI will wait until the snow melts in J&K and the passes become navigable for cross-border infiltration before deciding whether he was keeping that promise, the J/S noted. The GOI has seen no evidence that Islamabad had rolled up terrorist infrastructure, but he had ""no reason to be a pessimist at this point."" Sinha agreed with PolCouns that movement in the Kashmir peace process might make it easier for Musharraf to live up to his January 6 promise, but also noted that the downturn in terrorism during 2004 made it easier for the GOI to make concessions, for example on travel documents for the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus.
No Firm Dates for Composite Dialogue
--------------
4. (C) Sinha confirmed that the Composite Dialogue schedule was being ""chalked out"" and would conclude with a Foreign Secretaries' meeting in August, but the two sides had yet to
SIPDIS agree on dates for expert-level talks. Following the Foreign Secretaries' meeting would be another Singh-Musharraf
SIPDIS session, which could be either on the sidelines of UNGA, or possibly during the PM's visit to Pakistan, the J/S added.
He expects the relevant economic ministries to become involved in operationalizing the agreements for reviving the Indo-Pak Joint Commission, but also cautioned that the trade relationship has been hobbled by complaints on both sides about non-tarrif barriers.
New Transportation Links Being Worked Out
--------------
5. (C) Reviewing deliverables in the Joint Statement, Sinha said India would have been ready to inaugurate the Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link in October, because the GOI only has to rehabilitate a few kilometers of track, but the date was pushed back to allow Islamabad time to upgrade its meter-gauge track to broad-gauge. He warned that the January 1, 2006 target start date may prove ""optimistic"" for the GOP to upgrade over 100 kilometers. The long-term benefit would be a fully accessible Indo-Pak rail system, because once the broad-gauge track is laid from the Indian border to Mirpur Khas (the Pakistani rail hub closest to the border town of Khokhrapar),the two national rail systems would be linked.
""You could then take a train from New Delhi to Karachi,"" Sinha explained.
6. (C) The J/S reported that the two governments had not yet worked out details for the new Amritsar-Lahore and Nankana-Sahib bus routes, the Poonch-Rawalkote trans-LOC link, or the increase in frequency of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service as outlined in the Joint Statement. He specified that the focus would be on reviving existing routes and listed Skardu-Kargil and Jammu-Sialkot as being ""on the cards.""
PM Enlarging the Peace Constituency
--------------
7. (C) Sinha pointed to Railways Minister and RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav,s presence in the GOI delegation as demonstrating the PM's efforts to enlarge the Indian peace constituency beyond Congress. In this respect, he said, Laloo,s political value as a participant in the talks with Musharraf far exceeded his Cabinet rank.
GOI Theories on the ""New"" Musharraf
--------------
8. (C) In response to PolCouns' probing of what was responsible for the ""new"" Musharraf, Sinha agreed that it resulted from a number of ""pressures,"" including Pakistan's role in the Global War on Terror and continued US engagement with Musharraf on the issue of cross-border infiltration. He also credited the initiative in people-to-people ties over the past year that broke down psychological barriers and facilitated the diplomatic initiatives PMs Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh offered. Furthermore, after ""seven years of failed Indo-Pak policies with no pay-offs,"" Musharraf may have felt a need to ""change for success,"" Sinha speculated.
9. (C) The J/S observed that Musharraf's visit was better received in the Indian papers than in Pakistani ones, and opined that his domestic opposition was ""restricted to hard-liners and not widespread."" Mainstream Pakistanis never supported terrorism even when relations with India were poor, and now Musharraf himself is isolating the hardliners. The ""new"" Musharraf had even undercut any BJP backlash by visiting both Opposition Leader LK Advani and former PM Vajpayee, Sinha noted.
Comment
--------------
10. (C) The MEA's ""cautious optimism"" on relations with Islamabad has clearly begun to change to ""optimism"" after this unusually successful visit, although New Delhi will look for infiltration to stay low and for evidence that the jihadi infrastructure in Pakistan is reduced, if not rolled-up.
While the MEA remains institutionally cautious vis-a-vis Islamabad, it has clearly fallen in behind the PM's leadership on Pakistan policy. Less well understood -- outside Manmohan Singh's widening circle of supporters -- is the PM's notion of a redefined Indo-Pak relationship that downplays Kashmir as a source of discord, asserts that territorial disputes are irrelevant in a global economy, and seeks to deepen the commercial and personal relationships that could provide the foundation for a cooperative future.
BJP leaders like Jaswant Singh warn that the UPA is ""now getting into the deeper end of the pool"" and needs to explain its geo-political pronouncements. But the fact that MEA mandarins like Sinha are now enunciating this vision suggests that the terms of debate over India's relations with Pakistan have started to shift.
BLAKE "
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: MEA SAYS ""CRICKET SUMMIT"" RE-FRAMED INDO-PAK AGENDA
REF: A. ISLAMABAD 5490
B. NEW DELHI 2884
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: In a March 20 meeting with PolCouns and Poloff, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion that India had obtained more than Pakistan from the ""Cricket Summit,"" highlighting Manmohan Singh's vision of a new agenda for Indo-Pak relations that transcends borders and reduces the relevance of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs. Sinha emphasized that the PM has also taken a risk by pushing the notion of ""soft borders"" at a time when terrorist infrastructure remains intact on the Pakistani side. This will be sustainable, he argued, only so long as the level of infiltration remains low. Sinha agreed that the visit produced a number of important Kashmir-related CBMs, and although the expert-level talks in the Composite Dialogue were not finalized, the Foreign Secretaries will meet in August to pave the way for another meeting between Musharraf and PM Manmohan Singh, either at the UNGA or during a Singh visit to Pakistan. Details on expanding rail and bus links as outlined in the April 18 Joint Statement are still to be worked out. Sinha noted that the presence of Railways Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav in the delegation that met Musharraf served the PM's purpose of expanding the ""peace constituency"" beyond Congress. He also credited US pressure stemming from the GWOT and the vast expansion of people-to-people exchanges for the ""new"" Musharraf. End Summary.
180 Degree Change from Agra
--------------
2. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion in some press accounts that India had received more than Pakistan from the ""Cricket Summit,"" emphasizing Manmohan Singh's vision of different kind of Indo-Pak relationship that transcends borders and reduces the relevance of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs.
Admitting that he had been ""surprised by how positive"" the April 16-18 visit of President Musharraf to India was, Sinha called it the most successful Indo-Pak summit in years, if not ever, and agreed that the Pakistani President's behavior in New Delhi was a 180-degree change from that in Agra in July 2001. The J/S noted that interpersonal vibes had been excellent, and that the new CBMs would undoubtedly accelerate because of the visit.
Cautious on Infiltration
--------------
3. (C) Sinha emphasized that the Indian PM had also taken a risk by pushing the notion of soft borders at a time when the infrastructure of terrorism remains intact on the Pakistani side. This will be sustainable, he argued, only so long as the level of infiltration remains low. Although Musharraf reaffirmed his January 6, 2004 promise not to let terrorists operate from Pakistani-controlled territory, the GOI will wait until the snow melts in J&K and the passes become navigable for cross-border infiltration before deciding whether he was keeping that promise, the J/S noted. The GOI has seen no evidence that Islamabad had rolled up terrorist infrastructure, but he had ""no reason to be a pessimist at this point."" Sinha agreed with PolCouns that movement in the Kashmir peace process might make it easier for Musharraf to live up to his January 6 promise, but also noted that the downturn in terrorism during 2004 made it easier for the GOI to make concessions, for example on travel documents for the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus.
No Firm Dates for Composite Dialogue
--------------
4. (C) Sinha confirmed that the Composite Dialogue schedule was being ""chalked out"" and would conclude with a Foreign Secretaries' meeting in August, but the two sides had yet to
SIPDIS agree on dates for expert-level talks. Following the Foreign Secretaries' meeting would be another Singh-Musharraf
SIPDIS session, which could be either on the sidelines of UNGA, or possibly during the PM's visit to Pakistan, the J/S added.
He expects the relevant economic ministries to become involved in operationalizing the agreements for reviving the Indo-Pak Joint Commission, but also cautioned that the trade relationship has been hobbled by complaints on both sides about non-tarrif barriers.
New Transportation Links Being Worked Out
--------------
5. (C) Reviewing deliverables in the Joint Statement, Sinha said India would have been ready to inaugurate the Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link in October, because the GOI only has to rehabilitate a few kilometers of track, but the date was pushed back to allow Islamabad time to upgrade its meter-gauge track to broad-gauge. He warned that the January 1, 2006 target start date may prove ""optimistic"" for the GOP to upgrade over 100 kilometers. The long-term benefit would be a fully accessible Indo-Pak rail system, because once the broad-gauge track is laid from the Indian border to Mirpur Khas (the Pakistani rail hub closest to the border town of Khokhrapar),the two national rail systems would be linked.
""You could then take a train from New Delhi to Karachi,"" Sinha explained.
6. (C) The J/S reported that the two governments had not yet worked out details for the new Amritsar-Lahore and Nankana-Sahib bus routes, the Poonch-Rawalkote trans-LOC link, or the increase in frequency of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service as outlined in the Joint Statement. He specified that the focus would be on reviving existing routes and listed Skardu-Kargil and Jammu-Sialkot as being ""on the cards.""
PM Enlarging the Peace Constituency
--------------
7. (C) Sinha pointed to Railways Minister and RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav,s presence in the GOI delegation as demonstrating the PM's efforts to enlarge the Indian peace constituency beyond Congress. In this respect, he said, Laloo,s political value as a participant in the talks with Musharraf far exceeded his Cabinet rank.
GOI Theories on the ""New"" Musharraf
--------------
8. (C) In response to PolCouns' probing of what was responsible for the ""new"" Musharraf, Sinha agreed that it resulted from a number of ""pressures,"" including Pakistan's role in the Global War on Terror and continued US engagement with Musharraf on the issue of cross-border infiltration. He also credited the initiative in people-to-people ties over the past year that broke down psychological barriers and facilitated the diplomatic initiatives PMs Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh offered. Furthermore, after ""seven years of failed Indo-Pak policies with no pay-offs,"" Musharraf may have felt a need to ""change for success,"" Sinha speculated.
9. (C) The J/S observed that Musharraf's visit was better received in the Indian papers than in Pakistani ones, and opined that his domestic opposition was ""restricted to hard-liners and not widespread."" Mainstream Pakistanis never supported terrorism even when relations with India were poor, and now Musharraf himself is isolating the hardliners. The ""new"" Musharraf had even undercut any BJP backlash by visiting both Opposition Leader LK Advani and former PM Vajpayee, Sinha noted.
Comment
--------------
10. (C) The MEA's ""cautious optimism"" on relations with Islamabad has clearly begun to change to ""optimism"" after this unusually successful visit, although New Delhi will look for infiltration to stay low and for evidence that the jihadi infrastructure in Pakistan is reduced, if not rolled-up.
While the MEA remains institutionally cautious vis-a-vis Islamabad, it has clearly fallen in behind the PM's leadership on Pakistan policy. Less well understood -- outside Manmohan Singh's widening circle of supporters -- is the PM's notion of a redefined Indo-Pak relationship that downplays Kashmir as a source of discord, asserts that territorial disputes are irrelevant in a global economy, and seeks to deepen the commercial and personal relationships that could provide the foundation for a cooperative future.
BJP leaders like Jaswant Singh warn that the UPA is ""now getting into the deeper end of the pool"" and needs to explain its geo-political pronouncements. But the fact that MEA mandarins like Sinha are now enunciating this vision suggests that the terms of debate over India's relations with Pakistan have started to shift.
BLAKE "