REGIONAL DIALOGUE WITH A/S ROCCA: BANGLADESH, SRI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002964

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM BG CE AF IN
SUBJECT: REGIONAL DIALOGUE WITH A/S ROCCA: BANGLADESH, SRI
LANKA, AFGHANISTAN

REF: NEW DELHI 2792

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: During the April 18 Regional Dialogue
meeting with SA Assistant Secretary Christina Rocca, Joint
Secretary Neelam Deo (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) expressed

SIPDIS
satisfaction that the USG's assessment of trends in
Bangladesh had moved closer to New Delhi's. Her comments
focused more on the poor state of Bangladeshi democracy than
on the Islamic extremism of past discussions. Deo faulted
LTTE "childishness" for the delayed Joint Mechanism for
tsunami reconstruction and doubted that President Kumaratunga

SIPDIS
would attempt to amend the Sri Lankan constitution to extend
her stay in office. PolCouns raised India's reluctance to
join the Afghanistan donors' Coordination Committee, and the
MEA agreed to discuss it again with Ambassador Sood. End
Summary.

Bad Politics in Bangladesh
--------------


2. (C) Opening the discussion, Deo asserted that the US
assessment of Bangladesh now seemed more closely in line with
New Delhi's. "The trends are not running positive," she
stated, highlighting the plight of the Awami League (AL).
Describing the AL as "the sinned against party," she
described how the August 2004 terrorist attack against Sheikh
Hasina had impacted her ability to be politically active
because of damage to her hearing and the restrictions the BDG
has placed on her movements. Deo emphasized that it was not
India's place to choose favorites in Bangladesh, but
underlined that democracy would not work without a
functioning opposition. She asserted that the Bangladeshi
army had mostly stayed out of the political wrangling,
although many top commanding officers were political
appointees. Part of the reason for the generally apolitical
nature of the army, she explained, was its reliance on the
revenue generated from participation in UN Peacekeeping
Operations.


3. (C) Deo reiterated the concerns about democracy that she
had expressed to DAS John Gastright on April 13 (reftel).
She lamented the measures the BNP was taking to put in place
a favorable electoral system and sympathetic officials,
thereby corrupting the system. While the AL had protested,
Deo said, it was not clear whether the party would take part
in the next election, which would be disappointing, since it
would be the "AL's election to lose."

Familiar Themes
--------------


4. (C) Deo pointed out that since the 2004 Chittagong arms
haul, eight other caches had been found in the surrounding
area, that the weapons used in attacks were increasingly more
sophisticated, and that they remained unaccounted for after
being confiscated. The border had been criminalized, which
the GOI sought to combat through a "series of proposals" to
legitimize trade. Disappointed with Dhaka's "lack of
political will to engage" with India she said that the
Bangladeshi business community wants liberalized trade, but
the Working Group on a Free Trade Agreement had last met more
than one year ago.

Pressure Points
--------------


5. (C) A/S Rocca told Deo that the February Washington
Donor's Conference had considered whether international
assistance should be restructured in a move to press Dhaka to
fix chronic problems. Deo responded that the US had some
leverage with development assistance because the BDG would
react to public pressure, but she emphasized the important
work NGOs are doing and that support for them should not be
disrupted. She also noted the possible impact of A/S Rocca's
public interventions regarding religious minorities, noting
that the proportion of Hindus in Bangladesh had fallen from
20 percent in 1971 to less than 10 percent today. She
suggested that more official international commentary on the
political situation, minority rights, and the poor quality of
investigations into political violence and other criminal
activity would have an impact. In this context, Deo was
encouraged by the April 16 judgment against 22 accused in the
killing of an AL MP. A/S Rocca noted that we are also
looking at the issue of money flows from the Gulf.

Sri Lanka: Peace Process on Hold
--------------


6. (C) Turning to Sri Lanka, Deo Blamed LTTE "childishness"
for delaying agreement on the Tsunami Reconstruction Joint
Mechanism, adding that while the Tigers should be eager to
come to an agreement, they were making it difficult by
rejecting all references to the GOSL. During his February
trip to New Delhi, Sri Lankan FM Laxman Kadirgamar had told
the GOI that the peace process was on hold while the focus
was on the Mechanism. New Delhi continued its bilateral
assistance through the GOSL, Deo noted, remarking that
"nothing positive" could come of the Italian decision to
provide aid to the LTTE directly.


7. (C) Deo dismissed the coalition partner JVP as
"inexperienced" and thought it was unlikely that they would
walk out on the government if the GOSL signed the Joint
Mechanism as threatened, preferring instead to "save
themselves for the peace process," which they oppose. The
party only knows how to issue ultimatums, she asserted,
adding that the government suffered from "bad coalition
handling." The GOI message to Colombo was that the Sinhalese
parties needed to come together because the LTTE was taking
advantage of their differences, she stated.

"Coy" Kumaratunga Might Let the Constitution Be
-------------- --


8. (C) During a late March trip to New Delhi, UNP leader
Ranil Wickremesinghe insisted that elections in Sri Lanka
would take place in 2005, despite President Chandrika
Kumaratunga's efforts to stay in power another year. Deo
expressed little concern that the President would be
successful in effecting the constitutional reforms required
to keep her in office, observing that she had little support
among the smaller parties, and would have to call a
referendum. Describing Kumaratunga as "coy," Deo added that
there was no indication she was making a major effort, and
that if she were to do so, it would have to be in the next
few months.

Afghanistan Coordination
--------------


9. (C) Noting that A/S Rocca would not have the opportunity
to engage substantively on Afghanistan in the absence of
Joint Secretary Dilip Sinha (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran),
PolCouns raised the issue of the donors' Coordination
Committee with Joint Secretary S. Jaishankar (Americas).
Expressing concern that the India did not want to join the
committee because New Delhi sees its assistance as bilateral,
PolCouns emphasized the importance of the donor community
working together, especially on the Kabul to Pul-i-Khumri
electric line, for which the GOI is the major donor.
Jaishankar promised to discuss India's participation with
Ambassador Rakesh Sood in Kabul. We will follow-up.


10. (U) A/S Rocca has cleared this message.
BLAKE