INDIA UPBEAT ON MUSHARRAF MINI-SUMMIT, BUT KEEPING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002866

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDIA UPBEAT ON MUSHARRAF MINI-SUMMIT, BUT KEEPING
EXPECTATIONS LOW

REF: A. NEW DELHI 2862


B. NEW DELHI 2631

C. NEW DELHI 1736

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: India is expecting a successful April 16-18
visit by the Pakistan President, largely because Musharraf
has laid out positive and realistic goals that mesh with New
Delhi's. The Reuters interview he gave on the eve of his
departure was music to India's ears, and was taken here as an
indication that Musharraf wants to bury his reputation as a
commando who prefers tactical political maneuvers over
building a mature relationship with India. Still, bearing in
mind the disastrous Agra summit, the GOI has tried to keep
expectations low, explaining that the criteria for a
successful visit will not be signed accords but incremental
improvement in a warming bilateral relationship. The GOI,
from the Foreign Minister down, has accepted that Kashmir
will be on the agenda, and the LOC bus is a success for which
both sides can claim credit, but Musharraf will also hear the
reaffirmation of the Indian mantra that there can be no
further partitions. End Summary.

Saying What India Wanted to Hear
--------------


2. (C) Musharraf's April 14 Reuters interview has had a
major impact on Indian expectations for his visit -- he said
what India wanted to hear. A list of sound bites that
resonated particularly well include:

-- A good-natured remark that he hopes his Delhi trip
"doesn't turn out like Agra," a reference to the disastrous
July 2001 summit.

-- His reference to transforming the LOC into a "soft
border," a concept that Manmohan Singh and others in the GOI
have long pushed;

-- Positive statements on CBMs, including expanding cross-LOC
transportation links; and

-- Publicly setting expectations low for his official
meetings ("If we strike some common ground ... that is the
maximum one can expect").

India Seeing "A Different General"
--------------


3. (C) Many Delhi-based Pakistan-watchers have admitted to
us that their perceptions of Musharraf have changed markedly
since 2001. References to Musharraf as "the architect of
Kargil" who anointed himself President just prior to the Agra
Summit have largely been replaced by grudging
characterizations of him as an emerging statesman with whom
"India can do business," as PM Singh said after their
September meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA. Our
interlocutors say that the 17-month-long cross-LOC
cease-fire, his positive meetings in 2004 with Prime
Ministers Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, the dramatic decreases
in (though not elimination of) Kashmir-oriented terrorism and
cross-border infiltration, a dip in Kashmir-related
demagoguery, and progress on CBMs including the successful
launch of the cross-LOC bus (Ref B),have been key in their
reassessment. In a recent meeting with the Ambassador (Ref
A),Natwar Singh warmly credited Musharraf for defying those
in the GOP establishment who opposed the Kashmir bus.


4. (C) Musharraf's interview has helped to further change
his image in the Indian mind. For example, veteran
strategist C. Raja Mohan commented on April 15 that "A
Different General Returns to a Transformed India."
"Hindustan Times" Associate Editor Vinod Sharma added that
the interview was "a happy augury" of changing perceptions
from Musharraf as "a swashbuckling general to a Head of State
working for peace." Sharma also pointed out to Poloff that
Musharraf's dispatching of his mother, brother and son as "an
advance team" went a long way to "soften his image."


5. (C) Indian commentators are expecting that Musharraf will
avoid what the pro-BJP "Pioneer" has characterized as "the
potential of the wily General to spring surprises: ugly ones
like Agra, uncomfortable ones like the Kathmandu handshake
(at the January 2002 SAARC summit),or googlies like his
(October 2004) Kashmir formula." Although an aide to PM
Singh told the "Times of India" that the GOI hopes Musharraf
will "resist the temptation of playing to the galleries back
home," and Natwar Singh visibly cringed when predicting to
the Ambassador Musharraf's Kashmir pitch (Ref A),GOI Kashmir
Interlocutor NN Vohra acknowledged to DAS Gastright and
D/PolCouns on April 13 that India accepts Musharraf's need to
maintain a somewhat hard line on Kashmir "for his domestic
politics."

GOI Managing Expectations
--------------


6. (C) The GOI has been assiduously attempting to lower
expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough during this visit,
with PM Manmohan Singh stressing that it will be "not a state
visit but an informal one," although President Kalam will
host a lunch in Musharraf's honor and the PM will host a
dinner. "We don't want unnecessary hype, we want a
meaningful and substantial meeting," PM Media Adviser Sanjaya
Baru shared on April 14.


7. (C) The GOI mantra characterizing this visit has been a
repeat of the formulation used for Natwar Singh's February
15-17 trip to Islamabad, "expect neither a breakthrough nor a
breakdown." This theme carried into NSA Narayanan's April 10
comment on "Star News" that the important outcome would be an
improvement in bilateral relations "by even some percentage
points." Vohra echoed this notion by suggesting that
Musharraf should look for "small steps (i.e. CBMs) we can
take without falling down."

Predicting the Agenda
--------------


8. (C) Indian press reports that Musharraf's entourage could
be as large as 50 with a half dozen Cabinet ministers,
suggesting that the GOI may need to be prepared to respond to
a significant offer if he makes one. The Pakistani media
cadre, said to number over 30, has led to speculation that a
special announcement is planned (Natwar also brought a large
press contingent with him to Pakistan for the February 16
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus announcement).


9. (C) NSA Narayanan told reporters on April 15 that in
addition to discussing Kashmir, the GOI would recommend new
CBMs in the form of more cross-LOC bus routes and
facilitating reunions for divided Kashmiri families, items
that have been on New Delhi's agenda for months but which may
have found new life following the successful
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus launch. Indo-Pakistan watchers
speculate that the time may also be ripe to open the
Khokhrapar-Munnabao road linking Rajasthan and Sindh while
work progresses on opening the rail link between those cities
by October (Ref C). Dissecting what it claimed was the
entourage list, which included the Defense Secretary and the
Ministers of State for Religious and Youth Affairs, the
"Pioneer" has predicted that Siachen Glacier and new
people-to-people CBMs may feature on the agenda.


10. (C) Less speculation is required to know who Musharraf
will meet with. In addition to the expected events and
discussions with PM Singh and FM Natwar Singh, Musharraf will
meet President APJ Kalam and Congress Party leader Sonia
Gandhi, as well as former PM Vajpayee and Opposition Leader
and former Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani. Separate
Hurriyat factions plan to meet with Musharraf on April 17 --
first the moderates, then the pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS
Geelani, who is increasingly isolated in his criticism of
Indo-Pak rapprochement, including the cross-LOC bus service.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) By disposing one of the GOI's biggest fears for the
cricket summit -- a replay of Agra -- Musharraf set the stage
for what is widely expected to be a useful visit. As with
other recent steps forward in Indo-Pak relations, this visit
was initially opposed by the MEA bureaucracy, which was
forced to go along after PM Media Adviser Sanjaya Baru
announced in late March that the Pakistani President would be
welcome to visit. Indo-Pak summits usually are accompanied
by intense anticipation of a significant breakthrough, but
Musharraf's echoing of GOI efforts to keep expectations low
suggests that, even absent major deliverables, this
mini-summit will not be deemed a failure, at least as viewed
from Delhi.
BLAKE