C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002677

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015
TAGS: PREL ETRD IN CN
SUBJECT: WEN VISIT PREVIEW: GOOD VIBES, NO BORDER
BREAKTHROUGHS EXPECTED

REF: BEIJING 5358

Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: High expectations for significant progress
on the disputed border and other bilateral irritants during
Premier Wen Jiabao's April 9-12 visit to India have given way
to realism, although most China experts here expect a very
successful trip. The Chinese Ambassador has cautioned that
it will take some time before a final settlement of the
boundary is reached, while the MEA has announced a meeting at
the Special Representative level, probably just before the
bilaterals. In the wake of Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's
March 30-31 trip to Beijing, an economic cooperation
agreement is likely to be signed, which some analysts predict
will be the most significant deliverable for this first
Summit-level encounter in Delhi since 2002. Anticipation of
Wen's arrival has raised the pitch of India-China
comparisons, much of it fingering New Delhi's lack of
pragmatism in its approach to Beijing. The other notable
aspect of this visit is the US-India relationship looming in
the background. End Summary.

Mood Swings
--------------


2. (C) Following Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's trip to
Beijing for the March 30-31 India-China Joint Working Group
(JWG), Indian pundits and strategic thinkers evinced high
expectations for Wen's April 9-12 visit to India, speculating
that an announcement would be made of guidelines to settle
the long-running India-China border dispute (reftel). Some
well-informed analysts even floated the idea of a land swap
in which India would give up its claims to China-annexed
Aksai Chin in the west, and China would recognize India's
claim to Arunachal Pradesh in the east. Speaking with Poloff
on March 31, Chinese Political Attache Wu Jian Jian would not
confirm this scenario. Institute for Defense Studies and
Analyses (IDSA) researcher Deba Mohanty exercised the same
restraint on April 8, suggesting that while Singh and Wen may
sign off on "guiding principles" for resolving the boundary
dispute, this will likely "amount to little more than general
statements on the need for China and India to discuss the
issue."


3. (C) As the visit approaches, the prospect of a ma

jor
breakthrough has begun to fade. In a April 6 interview in
the "Indian Express," Chinese Ambassador Sun Yuxi stated that
"it will take some time before a final settlement is arrived
at." Sun suggested there would be "positive discussion," and
that "some documents could be exchanged, and some principles
laid out," but "the most important point is to keep the
border peaceful while we develop border trade and friendly
exchanges." Sun was noncommittal about India and the UNSC,
stating simply that the Council "has to adapt and restructure
to address the present needs."


4. (C) Some local pundits have also called for a cooler
perspective. BJP columnist Swapan Dasgupta in an April 8
op-ed in the "Telegraph" criticized the Indian media for
"over-hyping" the prospect for a border agreement. He argued
that Indian sinophiles (such as Jawarhalal Nehru University
Professor Manmohini Kaul who was enthusiastic about the
prospect of a major announcement while Wen is in New Delhi,
highlighting the "benign posture" from Beijing recently)
"fawn over China." Citing a lack of realism in the Indian
approach to China, he warned of less than "benign" intentions
from Beijing. "Outlook" Senior Analyst V. Sudarshan opined
that while four MOUs would be signed, there would not be any
breakthroughs during Wen's visit.

Eleventh Hour Push?
--------------


5. (C) Echoing the Chinese Embassy's view that there were
still details to be worked out, the MEA announced on April 1
that another round of border discussions will be squeezed in
before Wen arrives in New Delhi. The Ministry stated that
while in Beijing, Saran extended an invitation for Special
Representative Dai Bingguo to meet Indian NSA MK Narayanan
ahead of Wen's visit. Political Attache Wu said this meeting
would focus on drafting political guidelines as opposed to
the boundary details of the JWG discussions. IDSA Senior
Research Fellow Srikanth Kondapalli did not expect "anything
extraordinary," but noted positively that former Ambassador
to China VK Nambiar, as Deputy NSA, was likely to accompany
Naryanan.

Delinking the Boundary from Bilateral Ties
--------------


6. (C) Stressing that the Wen visit would cover the full
scope of India-China relations, Ambassador Sun's interview
asserted that the "border issue should not stand in the way
of all-round development and our bilateral relations."
Echoing this view, PM Manmohan Singh told journalists on
March 30 that Wen's visit would focus on economic cooperation
(Wen will visit the IT center of Bangalore before his
official program in New Delhi), and hinted that closer
economic integration would add momentum to settle the
boundary issues. Political Attache Wu added that the PMs
would announce a five-year plan to increase trade and
economic linkages, following the periodic meetings of a Joint
Working Group set up for this purpose during former PM
Vajpayee's visit to China in 2003. The IDSA's Mohanty
considered the economic relationship more significant at this
point and suspected that this was the focus of Saran's
discussions in Beijing.


7. (C) However, some experts here question whether economic
relations could be delinked from the unresolved border issue.
Even the optimistic Professor Kaul told Poloff that the
India-China relationship cannot grow to its full potential
without settlement of the border issue, as did JNU Professor
Swaran Singh who asserted that despite improving ties, the
boundary issue remains central to the relationship. This
Indian impatience contrasts with the studiously aloof PRC
approach to the border talks.

China On My Mind
--------------


8. (U) Reflecting the relative infrequency of India-China
summits, New Delhi's China watchers have been intensely
focused on this visit. Criticizing both New Delhi and
Beijing for "lofty words used to drug domestic audiences,"
the "Indian Express" in a March 28 editorial looked forward
to PM Singh and Wen approaching the relationship with a
"pragmatic mindset." Pragmatism was what Center for Policy
Research's Brahma Chellany commented was lacking in India's
approach to China, noting Beijing's "strategic clarity" as
opposed to India's "naive idealism." Chellany has argued
forcefully that India's approach of cooperation over
competition has resulted in a playing field which Beijing has
unleveled with "hard-nosed realism."


9. (C) One other notable aspect of this visit -- unmentioned
but implicit in much India-China diplomacy -- is the
improving relationship with Washington. MEA Joint Secretary
(Americas) S. Jaishankar told us recently that the PRC had
reacted nervously to the Secretary's speech at Sophia
University in Tokyo, and had asked the Indians what they
should make of US declarations that India should be "a major
power in the 21st century." Jaishankar indicated that the
GOI was keenly focused on managing its China relationship in
a way that did not disrupt ties with the US.

Comment
--------------

10. (C) In view of the intensification of ties with the US,
the Congress government will be under pressure from its Left
allies to demonstrate momentum with China as well. Indeed,
press reports indicate that Sonia Gandhi and the PM met with
Left leaders to discuss the visit. Because of the importance
of the border issue to India-China relations, positive
signals on that will be necessary for the Wen visit to be
declared a success, although progress in areas such as trade,
education and technology could also provide optimism. That
said, an announcement of principles by which to settle the
territorial dispute would be an important step forward.
MULFORD