C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002475

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM MASS KDEM IN NP BT DA NL SW SZ CA FR UK FI NO CH PK
SUBJECT: DELHI EU MEMBER STATE MISSIONS TAKE ROSY VIEW OF
NEPAL'S FUTURE

REF: NEW DELHI 1553 (NOTAL)

Classified By: A/PolCouns Matt Boyse. Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: At a March 31 meeting of EU and "likeminded"
countries hosted by the Danes, EU member state
representatives evinced surprising optimism about the
potential for a constituent assembly and constitutional
changes to resolve the impasse in Nepal. We noted a clear
preference for an Item 19 resolution at the CHR, with a
Special Rapporteur, international monitoring, and
strengthening of the National Human Rights Commission. The
group also called for Bhutan to begin accepting Category 1
refugees from Nepal. End Summary.


2. (C) The Danish Embassy chaired a meeting on Nepal on
March 31 to coincide with the visit to South Asia of Sus
Ulbaek, Head of the Danish MFA's Asia Department, which
gathered Ambassadors from Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, the
Netherlands, the European Union, and Canada (all accredited
to Nepal as well), and representatives of the UK, France,
Finland and Norway. Poloff attended as well.

Talk of a Constituent Assembly
--------------


3. (C) Summarizing her meetings with MEA Joint Secretary
(Nepal and Bhutan) Ranjit Rae earlier that day, Ulbaek stated
that the GOI position was "very close" to the Danish view of
Nepal. Both countries were focused on "how to reinstate
democracy," and were seeking to identify what processes would
lead to that goal. She professed surprise that Rae even
raised the idea of a constituent assembly, commenting that
she hadn't heard this from the MEA before. (Comment: Rae
told A/PolCouns late on April 1 that this idea was being
debated in Kathmandu, denied that the GOI was pushing it, and

stressed that it was up to the Nepalese political actors to
take such a step if they wanted to. End Comment.)


4. (C) Ulbaek added that Denmark and the MEA had agreed that
political parties were key to restoring democracy because
they were "the most democratic forces there," and that the
GOI was in the forefront of working with them because "the
number 2 and number 3 in each are here in New Delhi."
Working with the political parties was the only way to avoid
having to back either the King or the Maoists. After Ulbaek
predicted that the next Nepalese PM is likely to come out of
the group in New Delhi, the Canadian Ambassador reminded
participants that the parties' credibility in Nepal is very
low.

Constitutional Changes
--------------


5. (C) Asserting that "no one" (sic) in Nepal trusts the
King or Crown Prince Paras, Ulbaek suggested that "we're
heading toward a republic" in Nepal. The international
community, therefore, needs to create a constitutional
process for "everyone" -- including the Maoists -- to discuss
a future constitution. Several participants noted obstacles
to this approach, including the loyalty of the RNA to the
King, and the political parties' poor record in government in
the past.

Military Assistance
--------------

6. (C) Several participants (DK, EU and NL) gently chided
the USG for not explicitly suspending lethal military aid,
suggesting that our "at risk" formulation gave hope to the
King that a suspension could be avoided. There was further
agreement that Pakistan and China were unlikely to try to
replace India as the chief arms supplier to the RNA.
However, the EU Ambassador warned that China will take
advantage of India's estrangement "to make slow progress in
Nepal." He also mentioned that the GOI had asked the EU to
demarche Islamabad about supplying arms to Nepal (Reftel).
UNCHR: India Abstaining on Item 9?
--------------


7. (C) Ulbaek predicted that New Delhi, although preferring
an Item 19 resolution in the UNCHR, would not oppose an Item

9. All participants, including the Swiss Ambassador, agreed
that an Item 19 resolution would be preferable, but that
Nepal must make concrete improvements in the coming weeks to
avoid Item 9 action, a message he and Ulbaek agreed to
deliver in meetings with HMGN in the next week. They floated
the following components of an Item 19 resolution:

-- Appointment of a Special Rapporteur;

-- Acceptance of international human rights monitors in
Nepal; and

-- Strengthening the National Human Rights Commission.

Bhutan: At least take 200
--------------


8. (C) Reviewing the difficulties of repatriating Bhutanese
refugees in Nepal, Ulbaek suggested that the "Friends of
Bhutan" needed to remind the RGOB that Bhutan may be "off the
hook" on verification of refugees because of instability in
Nepal, but it was important for them to start by accepting
the roughly 200 identified Category 1 refugees. She
suggested that interlocutors could explain to HMGN that the
departure of the first batch was part of a global solution
and not the final action, thereby convincing Nepal to allow
repatriation.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) We were surprised by the optimism that several EU
member state representatives here expressed about both the
capability of the political parties to fill a central
governing role, and the willingness of the Maoists to
permanently abandon the insurgency. The Danish diplomat
appears to have misread the MEA's views on a constituent
assembly. The MEA is not averse to one, but believes that
the impetus must come from the Nepalese themselves.
MULFORD