C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001234

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PK IN INDO PAK

SUBJECT: KASHMIR BUS AGREEMENT A ""HISTORICAL MILESTONE""

Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The February 16 agreement by India and Pakistan to begin bus service across the LOC between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad beginning on April 7 is the most important Kashmir-specific CBM since the November 2003 LOC ceasefire agreement, and will have important political ramifications in J&K and in the Indo-Pak relationship more broadly. Initial reactions in the Valley have been largely positive, although there is a reservoir of skepticism that the LOC, which has been closed for some 50 years, will actually open, and about who will benefit. As viewed from New Delhi, the deal represents a major climbdown by the GOI for which PM Manmohan Singh should get most of the credit, although New Delhi's concessions also open the door to criticism from the opposition BJP that the GOI has caved to Pakistan. Septel will assess other aspects of the Islamabad agreements addressing the broader Indo-Pak relationship. End Summary.


2. (C) Initial reactions in the Valley to the February 16 agreement have been largely positive, although there remains a significant reservoir of skepticism among cynical Kashmiris that it will actually come about and benefit them. A number of journalists in Srinagar have told us that those Kashmiris who have electricity (power remains a major problem during this harsh winter) have been glued to their TVs, and that word is spreading fast among those who do not. PDP Chief Minister Mufti Mohammmad Sayeed and his daughter PDP President Mehbooba Sayeed held separate press conferences late in the day, both hailing the agreement as ""a milestone in Kashmir's history."" Reached in New Delhi, Mehbooba was jubilant, predicting that the bus would have a ""tremendous impact on the situation"" and going so far as to call it ""the light at the end of the tunnel.""


3. (C) Separatist opinion is predictably divided, with the moderate All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) more positive than the pro-independence JKLF and hardline APHC led by SAS Geelani. Reached in Srinagar, moderate separatist Prof AG Bhat called it ""a very big breakthrough."" Observing that it would ""make the people happy,"" he hoped the bus would lead to more intra-Kashmir trade. APHC moderate Bilal Lone also hailed the decision, but called for ""more improvements on the ground."" Reached in New Delhi, the Mirwaiz Umar Farooq welcomed it, but drew attention to the need for the GOI to provide ""relief to the common man."" Moderate Jamaat-i-Islami leader GM Bhat also termed it a ""breakthrough,"" and predicted that this small step would leave to bigger steps.


4. (C) JKLF leader Ghulam Rasool Dhar, reached while Chairman Yaseen Malik was travelling, was non-committal, raising concerns about procedures potential travelers would have to undergo to obtain travel documents and commenting that if clearance is required from J&K officials, travel would be ""much more difficult for people like us"" (i.e.
pro-independence or separatist-oriented Kashmiris). According to one journalist in Srinagar, SAS Geelani has already diminished the achievement, predictably calling for the implementation of age-old UN Resolutions on Kashmir.
Comment
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5. (C) The major beneficiaries of this agreement -- the most significant Kashmir-related CBM since the November 2003 LOC ceasefire -- will be the Kashmiris themselves. However, New Delhi and Manmohan Singh deserve most of the credit for making the concessions necessary to reach this deal with Islamabad. In the Valley, the PDP stands to be the big winner politically, because of its very visible campaign to make the LOC into a soft border, to the point where billboards the party erected during 2003 noting the distance to Muzaffarabad in kilometers had become an object of scorn.



6. (C) With news still fresh, modalities unclear, and many memories of false starts in Indo-Pak relations, Kashmiris remain predictably cautious in their reactions, and they will presumably wait to see how the agreement is implemented before reacting as optimistically as have Mehbooba and other PDP politicians. Demographically and geographically, the largest group of potential beneficiaries are located closer to the LOC in Doda, Rajouri, Poonch districts, while there are fewer potential takers in Srinagar, where family and other personal ties across the LOC are less strong.
Nevertheless, if the first bus departs for Muzaffarabad on April 7, the symbolism of the LOC opening could have further implications for Indo-Pak relations in ways we cannot yet foresee.
MULFORD