CHADIAN PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCES ELECTION PLANS

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 001684

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM
SUBJECT: CHADIAN PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCES ELECTION PLANS

REF: NDJAMENA 1649


1. (SBU) Summary: On November 18, Chadian Prime Minister
Pascal Yoadminadji outlined plans for the 2006 elections in
a meeting originally billed as the installation of the
national independent electoral commission. Yoadminadji may
have scuttled the installation after political opposition
parties declined the invitation to attend. Instead, he
announced that the presidential elections would occur in the
second trimester of 2006 and legislative and communal
elections would be delayed. Even the ruling party and its
allies were confused over the meeting's purpose, but took
the opportunity, as did the Prime Minister, to point to the
opposition's boycott of the process as obstructionist.
Finally, the Prime Minister acknowledged the electoral
deficiencies identified in the recently released U.N.
Development Program report, and asked international donors
to provide technical assistance and financing to overcome
electoral shortcomings. End Summary.


2. (U) On November 18, Prime Minister Pascal Yoadminadji
called the political parties and international donors to the
installation of the National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI). The meeting was attended by the ruling
party and its allies and international donors including
France, the U.S., Germany, and the European Commission,
which also represented the U.N. Development Program (UNDP).
Opposition parties did not attend.


3. (U) Yoadminadji, however, did not install the CENI.
Instead, he announced that the Chadian Government was
proceeding with presidential elections in the second
trimester of 2006 and would soon establish the CENI.
According to Yoadminadji, the Government places the highest
importance on consultations and transparency. Moreover, the
Government wants the upcoming elections to be respected. He
outlined the Minister of Territorial Administration's
attempts to undertake consultations with all the political
parties in order to constitute the CENI. The opposition
parties are continuing the boycott of the process that began
with the referendum. Yoadminadji reiterated President
Deby's commitment to meet with the opposition. However, he
stated that due to the extreme pressures on the Chadian
Treasury, Deby is not in a financial position to meet the
opposition's key precondition for participation: revision of
the electoral list.


4. (U) The Prime Minister acknowledged the weaknesses
identified in the U.N. Development Program's recent
assessment of the electoral process. (Reftel) He called on
donors to provide the financing to correct these
deficiencies arguing that transparent, respected elections
require technical assistance, training for electoral agents,
and expertise to revise the electoral code.


5. (U) Yoadminadji emphasized that the opposition refused
to attend the meeting. He noted that he received a letter
from the Coalition of Parties for the Defense of the
Constitution (CDPC) declining the invitation, which outlined
its concerns regarding the process. He stated that the
opposition has "deserted the dialogue" and that Government
cannot advance without it. He explained that in the absence
of good elections, the country could be plunged into chaos.
He again called on Chad's international partners to finance
the elections.


6. (SBU) Concluding his formal remarks, Yoadminadji
announced that the Government had deposited revisions to the
electoral code at the National Assembly. These revisions
include extending the terms of currently serving deputies by
one year. This is necessary to align the deputies'
districts with the prefectures and other changes implemented
under the decentralization plan. He stated that the
Government is keeping all options open to ensure a minimum
of consensus on the elections and again invited the
international community to "accompany us".


7. (SBU) Though not invited to speak, French Ambassador
Jean-Pierre Bercot took the floor. He noted that the
opposition's boycott of the electoral registration for the
referendum had been a mistake that has deprived many
Chadians of their right to vote in the upcoming elections.
Nonetheless, he urged the Government not to move ahead with
the CENI without the CDPC. He recommended that both parties
meet face-to-face instead of exchanging letters. He also
stated that it is important for the Government to make every

effort to correct as many of the issues with the electoral
code and process as possible.


8. (SBU) Yoadimnadji used Bercot's intervention to say
that the Government cannot accept the CDPC's conditions,
which include revision of the electoral list. He said the
Government is open to discussion at all times without
limits, except financial. Ruling party General Secretary
Mahamat Hisseine jumped in and asked who invited the
international community to the meeting. The Prime Minister
stated that the international community was invited at the
request of the opposition. Later, P/E officer learned that
the opposition did not ask for the international community's
presence. One of the Prime Minister's advisors said that
the Government wanted the donors to be involved in the
process.


9. (SBU) For its point, the CDPC is calling for
transparent electoral census; the delineation of new
electoral districts; a redefinition of the CENI's
composition, rules, and functions; electoral code revisions;
and the establishment of mechanisms to assure transparent
elections and sanctions for those who violate them. In a
press communiqu, the CDPC noted their availability for
dialogue and said that the President had requested their
proposal for the upcoming elections during a face-to-face
meeting on September 20. The CDPC responded in writing on
September 22. Ngarba said the President had yet to respond.
CDPC members had set a meeting up with the Prime Minister
earlier in the day, but Yoadimnadji cancelled it.


10. (U) In September, the CDPC called for the creation of
a mixed committee to discuss key issues pertaining to the
elections in its meeting with President Deby. CDPC
questioned the Government's ability to hold transparent
elections given "serious uncertainties" brought on by
military desertions from elements of Deby's own family and
the Government's attempt to revise the oil revenue
management law. The CDPC believes that the Government is
going to secretly install the CENI and is now in the process
of looking for replacements for the six opposition party
seats, according to CDPC spokesman Salibu Ngarba.

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COMMENT
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11. (SBU) The confusion over the CENI installation
reflects general uncertainty over the upcoming electoral
process. As with the referendum, the Government is again
late in its preparations for next elections. Even if Deby
had the political will to overcome the opposition's
objections, a ruling party insider tells us that a free,
fair, and transparent electoral process would require a
significant delay and the extension of the presidential
mandate past August 8, 2006. Last week's postponement of
the ruling party Congress, at which Deby would presumably be
named a candidate for president, is another indication that
the regime is still undecided on some of its next steps. No
firm date for the Congress has been set.


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