PRESIDENT KIBAKI BANS ORANGE RALLIES AND MULLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004901 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KE SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KIBAKI BANS ORANGE RALLIES AND MULLS CABINET CONTENDERS REF: A. NAIROBI 4878 ¶B. NAIROBI 4838 Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. 1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kenya's government banned November 27 planned nationwide rallies organized by the Orange Democratic Movement on the grounds the opposition gatherings pose "a threat to national security." The rallies had been called to build support for the Orange Democratic Movement and bolster their calls for early elections, which the government steadfastly refuses to accept. President Kibaki is expected to announce his new Cabinet imminently. Kibaki's inclusion of Orange leaders in the new Cabinet would speed the process of national reconciliation. Their exclusion risks deepening political divisions and the derailment of the reform process in Kenya. END SUMMARY. -------------- Government Restricts Freedom of Assembly -------------- ¶2. (U) During a mass thanksgiving gathering held by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in Nairobi November 26, Orange leaders announced plans to hold similar rallies around the country. The rallies would serve to reward voters who rejected the draft constitution as well as to garner support for the ODM's calls for the dissolution of Parliament to bring about early elections. The government was quick to respond by banning all future Orange rallies. Vice-President Moody Awori stated November 27 the government &considers this call for nationwide rallies inappropriate and a threat to national security.8 Awori, trying to distance the government from the resounding defeat of the draft constitution, further stated that the results of the referendum in no way should be construed to be an assessment of government performance and therefore &there is no reason8 for fresh elections. ¶3. (C) The government decision sparked protest from the ODM as being in violation of Kenyans' right to assembly. Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo told Poloff November 28 the latest announcement was further evidence of the government "trying to become dictators." He argued that the reasoning given, that the planned Orange meetings around the country to thank voters for their support had the potential to become violent, was simply wrong, highlighting the calm manner of Nairobi's huge rally. Orange leaders declared the government,s ban illegal and have indicated their intent to continue with the planned rallies, currently scheduled to begin December 10. -------------- ODM In Need of Clear Leadership -------------- ¶4. (U) Awori offered no details on acknowledged government plans to consult with the ODM regarding a new constitution or government. Despite their calls for reconciliation and national healing, Orange leaders sent contradictory messages about their willingness to cooperate with the President. During the November 26 rally, former Roads Minister Raila Odinga was adamant that they are ¬ interested in negotiations8 but rather want fresh elections. At that same rally, former Environment Minister Kalonzo Musyoka invited the President to negotiate with them. Further complicating the ODM,s ability to effectively negotiate with the government is its apparent lack of a defined leadership structure. While there are several outspoken leaders of the ODM (mostly LDP and KANU party leaders),no unified leadership structure has yet been developed. This may be due in part to the challenge of binding together the unlikely bedfellows who joined forces to defeat the proposed constitution. However, such cohesion within the movement is necessary as the ODM leaders insist the movement will only re-enter government as a team, rather than on an individual basis. Indeed, they signed an agreement to that effect. -------------- -------------- Elections, Power-sharing, and a New Constitution - Quickly -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Former National Heritage Minister Najib Balala confirmed this strategy November 25 to the DCM. Balala said the ODM plans to demand a specific timetable for a new constitution and snap elections. They want a commitment to produce a new constitution within three months of the reconvening of Parliament, (not expected now until March 2006). The ODM seeks fresh elections; however, if that is not possible, they want a "proper government" formed in consultation with the ODM. Balala agreed that reconciliation is important but insisted that there will be no change in the ODM,s position as they believe their stand was ratified by the majority of Kenyan voters. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: President Kibaki may find any attempts to reach out to and incorporate the ODM leaders into a new Cabinet extremely difficult in the absence of a clear leader of the ODM who can negotiate on behalf of the team. Kibaki is expected to announce his new Cabinet presently. The individuals selected to join his government will reveal much about how Kibaki plans to chart the course ahead. The ODM's agitation for snap elections will likely increase to a fever pitch should the President exclude ODM leaders from Cabinet positions and continue to resist calls to dissolve Parliament to initiate fresh elections. The ban on ODM rallies is a disturbing restriction on the freedom of association, betrays a conflation of ruling party and national interests, and risks further alienating the ODM and current fence-sitters from the government. BELLAMY