HOW DO WE RUN THIS THING? COMMISSIONS WEIGH IN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003982 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE SUBJECT: HOW DO WE RUN THIS THING? COMMISSIONS WEIGH IN ON REFERENDUM PROCESS REF: A. (A) NAIROBI 3847 ¶B. (B) NAIROBI 3779 Classified By: Deputy PolCouns L. Peterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A September 21 lunch with members of the Electoral Commission of Kenya and the Constitution of Kenya Review Commission revealed that both organizations are unclear on the referendum process and their respective roles. Exactly two months before the November 21 constitutional referendum, there is debate within and between the two commissions on what rules should apply to the vote, each organization's responsibilities, and the civic education program. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) An Embassy-hosted lunch brought together Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) and Constitution of Kenya Review Commission Chairperson (CKRC) officials for a discussion of the administrative and legal framework associated with the upcoming referendum. Included in the event were ECK Vice Chairman Gabriel Mukele and Commissioners Wangui Karanja and Henry Jura, as well as CKRC Chairperson Abida Ali Aroni, First Vice Chairpersons Wanjiku Kabira and Ahmed Idha Salim, and Vice Chairperson HWO Okoth-Ogendo. IN THE GRAY -------------- ¶3. (C) Commission members debated whether election rules should apply, such as those pertaining to party agents at polling stations, and the use of public funds for campaigning. The ECK said that they were treating the current process like any other election, while the CKRC's Okoth-Ogendo argued this was not a simple vote for candidates and that people should be made to understand that the results of this poll will not be undone in five years. ECK Vice Chairman Mukele concluded that however "crudely" the draft constitution and the referendum had been arrived at (due to political and judicial ineptitude, others argued) the two commissions were mandated with carrying out an act of Parliament as best they could. ¶4. (C) Clearing the air on who does what, Okoth-Ogendo explained the difference between voter and civic education: the latter aims to explain the document to voters, while the purpose of the former is to ensure citizens make their intended choice when they vote. This raised the question: which document should civic educators explain? The CKRC stated that Kenyans are familiar with the 2004 Bomas-approved draft after two years of debate surrounding the creation of the document, and will look for a comparison. Therefore civic educators will present the current draft, but be prepared to answer questions on the existing constitution and the Bomas draft. The Commissioners noted that they should have earlier had a conversation on a joint ECK-CKRC effort, since both groups had people out in the field. ¶5. (C) In response to Okoth-Ogendo's comment that the Bomas-approved draft had "disappeared" from the CKRC website, Henry Jura wondered how divided the CKRC was, alluding to allegations that some CKRC members (such as Aroni, who was not yet present) had been less than impartial (ref B). Members on both sides agreed that even a whiff of bias in civic education could be (or already was) the program's demise. Aroni later admitted that within the organization there were differing views, but publicly the Commission had been able to speak with one voice. CIVIC EDUCATION STILLBORN? -------------- ¶6. (C) The ECK asserted that the Civic Education process was "tainted and broken," and therefore ineffective, leaving the door open for politicians to argue for their own right to campaign. In contrast to ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu's strong statement against campaigning before October 21 because of the detrimental impact on civic education (ref A), his deputy, Mukele, insisted that there was no prohibition against campaigning. He added that the October date only designated a "hot" period just prior to the vote. Members of both commissions agreed that the education program could only reach people who had not already made up their minds, and that many voters had not, and would not, read the text of the proposed draft. ¶7. (C) The question, "how does civic education work," did not receive an answer but prompted a discussion of the ECK and CKRC's respective roles. Aroni later updated on the program's progress, explaining that it had "barely begun." They had decided to use Community Based Organizations (smaller and less formal than civil society organizations) who were yet to be trained, but had programming on the radio already and would begin "in earnest" in October. She did admit, however, that the CKRC had "lost time." TIME, VIOLENCE, AND THE DAY AFTER -------------- ¶8. (C) The group remained divided on whether the time allocated for the referendum process was appropriate. Aroni confessed that she was "tired" and argued for doing "the best we can, why drag it out?" Jura, on the other hand, reiterated that the outcome was too important to rush. The members were reluctant to discuss the prospect for further violence during the next two months: "I would rather not predict," Mukele demurred. Looking ahead, the commissioners agreed that a "No" vote would not result in crisis as the existing constitution would still be in place, but "agitation" was possible. COMMENT: JUST BE CLEAR -------------- ¶9. (C) Nearly two weeks after the launch of the civic education program there was still no answer to how it will be carried out, illustrating the fog surrounding the organizations who are supposed to be at the center of the referendum process. The apparent lack of clarity on the process is not entirely unexpected considering the referendum is an unprecedented undertaking for Kenya. It is, however, disconcerting in light of the potentially damaging ramifications: violence (which sparked again later the same afternoon, septel) and political turmoil. The best outcome will be a decisive decision, either "Yes" or "No", that leaves little room for further political, and physical, wrangling. END COMMENT. BELLAMY