KENYA CONSTITUTION: VIOLENCE MARS THE YES CAMPAIGN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003863 SIPDIS SENSITIVE LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINS PHUM KE SUBJECT: KENYA CONSTITUTION: VIOLENCE MARS THE YES CAMPAIGN REF: A. (A) NAIROBI 3847 ¶B. (B) NAIROBI 3499 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Supporters of the proposed constitution launched their "Yes" campaign with three planned rallies September 16-18. As violence marred several pro-draft events, the message from both sides of the debate shifted to denounce violence and stress the importance of preventing the debate from escalating into inter-ethnic conflict. However, ethnicity increasingly appears to be one of the fault lines in the campaign process. END SUMMARY. -------------- PLAYING TO THE CROWD...WHAT CROWD? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The pro-draft constitution ("Yes") campaign kicked off September 16 before an audience of approximately 300 Maasai and bused-in supporters in the southern town of Kajiado, the first in a weekend-long series of planned events. The rally came two days after Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) Chairman Samuel Kivuitu called for a temporary halt to campaigning (ref A). Despite the songs about bananas (symbol of the "Yes" vote),on-stage banana eating, and a banana giveaway, the audience was rather passive and unenthusiastic. (NOTE: Residents of the Kajiado area are not expected to be pro-draft, making it a surprising choice for a kick-off event. END NOTE.) The rally was generally peaceful, apart from some rough police crowd-control during distribution of copies of the proposed draft. Even the small contingent of orange-waving (the symbol of the "No" campaign) draft opponents arrayed along the main road out of Kajiado let the departing ministers pass without incident. ¶3. (U) The event, hosted by Education Minister Saitoti, was conducted almost entirely in Kiswahili with occasional attempts to use the Maasai language to appeal to the Maasai present. Included in the audience were local school children, one of whom told PolOff that she had been given time off from class to attend the rally, adding that the school did not observe the same policy for the "No" rally previously held in the same town. -------------- SOME SUBSTANCE, SOME POLITICS -------------- ¶4. (U) The day's speakers, which included Vice President Awori and five cabinet ministers, encouraged careful examination of the provisions of the draft ("scrutinize it like the Bible", said Internal Security Minister Michuki), participation in civic education programs, and separation of politics from the constitutional debate. Water Resources Minister Martha Karua highlighted some of the differences between the Bomas-approved draft and the current one, including the provision for a Prime Minister (Kenya cannot have a PM more powerful than the President, she said). Karua's choice of transportation for the day, a GOK helicopter, was in glaring contrast to Assistant Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs Njeru Githae's pledge during the rally that the "Yes" campaign would raise its own funds and not use GOK resources. -------------- VIOLENCE PLAGUES THE "YES" CAMPAIGN -------------- ¶5. (U) A second "Yes" rally planned for Saturday in Garissa, in Kenya's North Eastern Province was canceled after high-ranking campaigners were pelted with stones and oranges by opponents to the draft constitution. Disturbances similarly marred other "Yes" gatherings in Mombasa on the coast and Kitui in the west of Rift Valley Province. Members of the "Yes" camp accused Raila Odinga and former President Moi of encouraging violence among their supporters to undermine the government. However, Odinga subsequently called for the "Yes" campaign to be allowed to conduct their activities without harassment, noting that violence could be used as an excuse to delay the referendum. ¶6. (SBU) The message predominating a September 18 "Yes" rally was one of reconciliation and unity. During the Sunday rally, held in the outskirts of Nairobi at Banana Hill, speakers repeatedly cautioned against violence and stressed the need to prevent the animosity surrounding the referendum from dividing Kenyans. Vice President Awori shared his recent visit to genocide sites in Rwanda to serve as a warning to Kenyans not to allow divisions over the draft constitution to promote tribalism or to escalate into inter-ethnic violence. The Banana Hill rally was well-attended by the majority Kikuyu community, with many in the crowd enthusiastically supporting the "Yes" vote. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: The "Yes" campaign appears to be off to a rocky start given its lukewarm reception in Kajiado and violent opposition in Garissa and elsewhere. By contrast, the crowds in Banana Hill were warmly receptive to the "Yes" campaign's message. The draft constitution has been portrayed in local media as a "pro-Kikuyu" document, which might explain the different receptions. Some Kikuyus are concerned about this portrayal, which could deepen existing mistrust among Kenya's ethnic groups. Despite speakers' calls to avoid tribalism, divisions between "Yes" and "No" supporters increasingly fall out along ethnic lines. The exception to this may come in a week, when Uhuru Kenyatta is slated to take his portion of the "No" campaign into the Kikuyu heartland. END COMMENT. BELLAMY