C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 003657

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF
STATE PASS AID
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KPAO SO KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA -- PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY FOR PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS IN SELF-DECLARED INDEPENDENT SOMALILAND

REF: NAIROBI 3575

Classified By: MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Somaliland's National Electoral Commission
(NEC), its political elite, civil society organizations, and
public at large are finalizing preparations to elect an
82-member Parliament on September 29. Despite extraordinary
organizational and logistical challenges, chances are very
good that this election will be free, fair, and a decisive
indicator of the voters' will. The problem of the status of
the disputed districts of Sool and Sanaag is still the
greatest obstacle to a successful poll. Nonetheless, there
is a willingness to again finesse the question, and
suggestions that neighboring Puntland will not interfere.
(NOTE: Reftel provided background on interrelations among
"Somaliland," "Puntland" and "Somalia".) END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Somalia Watcher and USAID/REDSO/ESA/LPC Officer
traveled August 30-31 to Hargeisa, capital of the
self-proclaimed independent Republic of Somaliland. The trip
was conducted in cooperation with the Somalia Democratization
Steering Committee (DSC). The DSC is composed of Denmark,
the European Commission, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland,
and the UK, countries that are providing indirect financial
assistance through NGO implementing partners for the
September 29 Somaliland legislative elections. The committee
was set up to oversee and coordinate the operations of the
Somali Democratization Program, implemented throughout
Somalia through War-torn Societies Project International
(WSP-International) and its affiliates in Somalia and
Somaliland. In the case of Somaliland's parliamentary
election, the U.S. provides complementary support through the
International Republican Institute, and so is an observer to
the DSC.

EXTRAORDINARY
SECURITY PRECAUTIONS
--------------


3. (C) Recent specific and credible reports of possible
terrorist activities in Somaliland directed at international

interests have led Post to defer virtually all travel to
Somaliland, and to refuse requests for country clearance for
and/or facilitation of the travel of USG and Congressional
employees. However, given the critical stage at which
election preparations have arrived, and the gap of nearly a
year since Somalia Watcher's last visit to Hargeisa, Post
took extraordinary security measures to mitigate risks and
allow the trip to go forward. These included

-- Limiting the stay to one overnight.

-- Requiring that two Diplomatic Security Special Agents from
Nairobi RSO accompany Embassy and USAID to liaise with
Somaliland National Police and provide necessary security
support.

-- Chartering direct air transport with no refueling from the
UN Common Aviation Service (UNCAS).

-- Ensuring that the UNCAS aircraft remains on the ground
during visit.

-- Obtaining round-the-clock escort and guard force services
from the Somaliland National Police's Special Protection Unit
(SPU).

-- Restricting USG team's movements in Hargeisa.

-- Maintaining separate ground transport from rest of DSC
group.

PACKED AGENDA
--------------


4. (SBU) Embassy and USAID Offs joined the DSC in meetings
with (a) the National Electoral Commission, (b) Ministry of
Interior and National Police officials; (c) civil society
groups; (d) the Women's Caucus of Parliamentary Candidates,
and (e) all three political parties contesting the elections.
The visit ended with a DSC courtesy call on Somaliland
President Riyale. In addition, Somalia Watcher conducted
"bilateral" meetings with the Somaliland Minister of Finance
(septel) and Minister of Interior, the later joined by the
Deputy Director General for National Intelligence and
Immigration (reftel). USAID Off also conducted a round-table
discussion on Somaliland's fragility and resilience as a
"fragile state" with key implementing partners, and met with
the Minster of Education to discuss USAID programs.

STATUS OF ELECTION PREPARATIONS
--------------


5. (SBU) The NEC gave a full briefing to the DSC members on
tasks accomplished so far in election preparations. Voter
education programs were underway in both urban and rural
areas. Regional- and District-level election officers (REOs
and DEOs) were selected, as had a total of 982 locations for
polling stations. Staff training had begun with training of
trainers (TOT) sessions conducted with individuals recruited
from the three universities in Somaliland, as well as from a
local NGO. These trainers had then been dispatched to train
REOs and DEOs in two training cycles conducted in the towns
of Hargeisa, Burao, Boroma and Erigavo. Next, the trainers
and REO/DEOs teamed up to train parliamentary candidates,
mayors, and other government officials on the conduct of the
election. Future training was planned for the week of
September 10 for logistics workers, polling station staff
(recruited among students at the national universities, high
school students in grades 11 and 12, former polling station
staff with clean records from prior elections, teachers, and
the "educated unemployed"), political party polling station
agents, local observers, and police. In all, over 10,000
individuals would receive some level of training in the
conduct of the poll.


6. (SBU) Other major hurdles that had been cleared as of
end-August included the submission of party candidate lists,
which the NEC then screened for qualifications under the
electoral law, disqualifying roughly a dozen of the more than
240 candidates. The NEC stated that the complete candidate
list is now available on the Commission's website at
www.somalilandelectoralcommission.org. Non-sensitive
election materials such as the 1,500 ballot bags, and bag
seals, had been purchased or ordered. Sensitive materials,
including the 1.3 million ballot papers themselves, and
12,000 sample papers were scheduled for delivery from the UK
printers September 12. Voter marking ink -- a fluorescent
variety used with success in South Africa, along with the
lamps and extra batteries and bulbs -- would be delivered a
week before the election.


7. (SBU) The NEC identified a number of challenges still
before them in preparing for this historic event. These
included the completion of the rural voters education
program, hampered by the nomadic electorate's lack of fixed
addresses and high level of illiteracy, as well as the poor
communication and transportation infrastructure. The NEC was
facing down relentless pressure from all parties to add to
the number of polling stations, under the presumption that
more stations produced more votes. The challenges
confronting election logistics sometimes seemed biblical in
scale -- incredibly difficult terrain, requiring days of
driving by 4 X 4 vehicle to reach remote polling stations;
the total lack of communication infrastructure in some areas;
thousands of individuals to train; and the constant threat
that rain would bring the whole process to a slippery halt.

VERY ENCOURAGING
--------------


8. (SBU) The DSC came away from the two days of meetings with
the feeling overall that this election would go ahead, no
matter the challenges. The Delegation of the European
Commission in Nairobi, chair of the DSC, issued a press
statement after the visit, noting that "Considerable progress
had been made in the preparations for the elections ... The
Steering Committee warmly commends the dedication of the NEC
and its partners, not least the energetic efforts of civil
society groups ... to promote democracy ... The Steering
committee is also much encouraged by the commitment expressed
by all three political parties to holding peaceful, fair and
free elections in line with the Code of Conduct concluded on
18 July."

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The feeling that this election has a very good chance
of a successful conclusion is palpable in Hargeisa. When the
subject of the lack of a coherent security plan for the
two-week period on either side of the election date came up,
the Somalilanders' reaction was simple: "This election is
ours, and we will all be responsible for policing and
security -- it's how we did it before." That said, from the
point of view of potential international observers, this
question was raised several times with the Commissioner of
Police and Minister of Interior, who were lamentably short of
answers, other than to say that a plan would be in place in
time. We believe that, as is often the case, Somaliland
during this election will be extraordinarily safe for
Somalilanders -- but might be a bit dicey for internationals.
This might actually be to the benefit of confirming a free
and fair result -- there will likely be fewer international
observers to be protected, leaving the job of election
monitoring to a small cadre of highly qualified professional
observers, joined by a team of Nairobi-based Somalia watchers
to do the job with less hindrance. END COMMENT
BELLAMY