SOHAR: BOOMTOWN OMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MUSCAT 000815 SIPDIS STATE FOR EB/IFD, NEA/RA AND NEA/ARPI STATE PLEASE PASS USTR/JBUNTIN USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/MAC/AMESA/OME/MTALAAT E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2015 TAGS: EINV EWWT EIND ETRD EMIN MU SUBJECT: SOHAR: BOOMTOWN OMAN REF: A. MUSCAT 506 ¶B. MUSCAT 480 ¶C. MUSCAT 298 Classified By: Ambassador Richard L. Baltimore III. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The city of Sohar on Oman's Batinah Coast near the UAE border is poised for dramatic growth as billions of investment dollars pour into a massive industrial port project. Representing Oman's most visible diversification effort, Sohar will be transformed over the next five years as huge gas-based factories, supporting businesses, and industrial infrastructure are developed. Looking into the future, Sohar is projected to become a major import/export hub and provide competition for regional ports, especially Jebel Ali outside Dubai. Major impacts on the local community are expected, and signs of a localized boom are already evident. End Summary. -------------- The Setting -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Occupying an ideal location about 260 km northwest of Muscat near the UAE border, the city of Sohar is undergoing a dramatic transformation from a sleepy fishing town to an industrial powerhouse. According to government and private sector sources, an estimated $10-12 billion of investment has been committed to the gas-based industrialization and development of the port over the next five years. Major investment has come from all over the world, including billions of American dollars. According to Jan Meijer, the Dutch CEO of the Sohar Industrial Port Company (SIPC) who delivered a speech to the Muscat American Business Council (MABC) in late April, the master plan for the port emphasizes three strategic clusters: Petrochemicals and Liquids, Logistics and Maritime Transport, and Metals. ¶3. (SBU) Historically, Sohar was an ancient trading center several times its current size, hosted a prosperous Jewish community, was home to the founder of the ruling Al Bu Said dynasty, and was also the last stronghold of Persian occupation in the 18th century. In modern times, the government of Sultan Qaboos has shown keenness to develop the city given its midway location astride the highway linking Muscat to the UAE population centers of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Sohar's importance to the government is underscored by the fact that the Sohar region boasts its own development office linked directly to the Diwan of Royal Court, a unique structure found nowhere else in Oman. Moreover, Sohar's strategic maritime location outside the Strait of Hormuz is ideal for capturing shipping traffic, particularly given the shorter transit time and lower insurance charges shippers pay for avoiding the Gulf entirely. Port officials estimate that 23 percent of all traffic processed at Jebel Ali port in the UAE is bound for Oman, which represents fertile grounds for capturing container and export/import traffic in northern Oman. -------------- The Players -------------- ¶4. (C) The list of projects taking shape in the SIPC concession area is impressive and lengthy. Many are already well underway, while others have merely broken ground or established leaseholder agreements with SIPC. According to SIPC's Commercial Manager, plots are being sold faster than expected, and local rumors indicate that SIPC will accelerate phase two of the port's development to begin in 2005 instead of 2010 as originally planned. Moreover, Jan Meijer indicated to the American business community that a free zone is likely to be developed (something confirmed in our discussions at the port itself) beginning in late 2005. The free zone will be launched at a major conference with Omani and European governmental participation that will seek to develop interest and ideas for downstream industries. ¶5. (SBU) Following is a brief summary of the projects underway in Sohar along with some of the key investors and rough values. -- Sohar Industrial Port Company (SIPC): Port of Rotterdam, Omani government; $250 million. (Note: U.S. firm Parsons is a technical consultant for SIPC). -- Sohar Refinery Company: Oman Oil Company, Omani government; $1.2 billion. -- Oman Methanol Company: Omar Zawawi Establishment, Ferrostaal (Germany); $600 million. -- Oman Petrochemical Industries Company: Dow Chemical, Oman Oil Company, Omani government; $3 billion. -- Sohar Aluminum Company: Oman Oil Company, Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Authority (ADWEA),Alcan (Canada); $1.3 billion. (Note: U.S. firm Bechtel was selected as the construction contractor; see ref C. End Note.) -- PVAXX pallet factory: PVAXX Industries (Bermuda); $230 million. -- Sohar International Urea & Chemical Industries (SIUCI): Suhail Bahwan Group (Oman); $650 million. -- Shadeed Iron and Steel: Al-Ghaith Holdings (UAE); $750 million. (Note: Midrex Technologies of the U.S. will be one of the technology suppliers to the plant. End Note.) -- Sohar Independent Water and Power Project: Tractebel Electricity & Gas International (Belgium),local Omani investors; $500 million. -- Oman Polypropylene: Oman Oil Company, LG International (Korea),Gulf Investment Corporation (Bahrain); $312 million. -- Ethylene Dichloride plant: Oman Oil Company, National Petrochemical Company (Iran),LG International (Korea); $300 million. -- Aromatics (petrochemicals) complex: Oman Oil Company, Axens (France),Oman Refinery Company; $956 million. -- Oiltanking Odfjell Terminals Oman: Oman Oil Company, Oiltanking (Germany),Odfjell (Norway); $200 million. -- Industrial and Maritime College of Oman (IMCO): Rotterdam Management and Maritime Affairs College (Holland),Omani investors; $30 million. -- Possible float glass factory: Guardian Industries (U.S.); $120 million. -------------- Behind the Scenes -------------- ¶6. (C) During a recent visit to the port, Econoff and Econ/Commercial Assistant witnessed bustling construction activity all over the 21 square kilometers of area under SIPC control. Beyond the immediate vicinity of the port, however, the city of Sohar appears little changed, apart from the opening of a new "hypermarket" along the main highway. One of the pressing concerns for the development of Sohar is the quality and capacity of the local infrastructure. With the influx of thousands of employees during the construction and operation of SIPC's industrial base, numerous facilities will need to be built from scratch: schools, housing, security and emergency services, utilities, etc. Moreover, the peak of construction will involve over 30,000 construction workers in Sohar. Dow Chemical executives in Muscat have quietly complained to the Ambassador that the government expects Dow to provide funding for basic services, from security to ambulances to firefighting. Such an approach by the government will strain relations with large investors and open the door to accusations of favoritism if Omani firms are not similarly asked to ante up for service provision. ¶7. (C) Telecommunications and IT infrastructure will also need to be developed in Sohar; in a meeting with USG officials, a senior Omantel official May 16 indicated that clients in the Sohar industrial port are already demanding communications technologies equal to or surpassing the excellent facilities in Jebel Ali in Dubai. Omantel is working on the massive network construction in Sohar, but the company is fully aware that the pressure to deliver a world-class solution is daunting. -------------- The Competition -------------- ¶8. (C) SIPC's drive to include a container terminal and a free trade zone (FTZ) as part of its business plan is intriguing, as it reverses the order of development from the Port of Salalah model. The southern Omani Port of Salalah has achieved world-class rating as a container transshipment port, and now the government is embarking upon a drive to establish a FTZ to attract industry (ref A). In contrast, the Port of Sohar aims to develop an industrial export base and then establish a container handling capability. According to a prominent member of the MABC, the Salalah FTZ has already attracted $4.5 billion in investment, with a goal of hitting $10 billion by the end of the year. ¶9. (C) Sohar likely will provide more long-term competition to Port Sultan Qaboos (PSQ) in Muscat (and the UAE ports in Fujeirah, Dubai, and Jebel Ali) than to the Port of Salalah. While PSQ has announced its own multi-billion expansion plan, it is physically constrained by mountains and rugged coastline; Sohar suffers no such constraints, and the sheer size of Sohar's port area dwarfs the available space at PSQ. The internecine turf battles between PSQ and SIPC likely caused the government to ask the Japanese aid agency (JICA) to redo its long-term port development study; according to SIPC's Commercial Manager, the original study is faulty and lacks vision. The SIPC official went on to state that Muscat should focus more on tourism and cruise ship traffic, with the implication being that Sohar would displace PSQ as the primary import/export hub in northern Oman. In the meantime, limited bulk shipments and equipment for the industries adjacent to the port are already arriving in Sohar. -------------- The Critics -------------- ¶10. (C) During a lunch with prominent members of the local branch of the Oman Chamber of Commerce & Industry in Sohar, Econoff noted that few existing businesspeople in Sohar possessed a vision for how to maximize the benefits of this massive investment influx. The chamber itself did not even have a plan for recruiting new members, and the only major real estate investment appeared to be coming from UAE nationals buying up plots. Clearly these developments have been imposed from outside the local community, and the huge sums of money involved fall well beyond the limited scope of existing industrialists in Oman. More problematic for the government is the resentment brewing in other parts of Oman. We have heard subtle complaints from Omanis in the interior and southern regions of the Sultanate who are envious of the developments in the north. Their basic question: why Sohar at the expense of the rest of the country? ¶11. (C) In the follow-up to the recent U.S.-Oman free trade agreement talks in Muscat, Econoff heard Environment Ministry officials express deep concern about the environmental impact of rampant industrialization in Sohar. Despite these worries, their voices are being drowned in the chorus of praise and encouragement for the government's bold vision. SIPC's senior management is going out of its way to commend the government for its strict environmental laws (and SIPC's compliance with the same),but the very ministry charged with developing those laws harbors many doubts. Relatedly, the rapid and staggered development of heavy industries in Sohar has created a situation where at least three separate power plants are being envisioned (one for residential and commercial use, one for the aluminum smelter, and one for the Dow petrochemical facility). Economies of scale, security, and environmental considerations seem to argue for a single power plant to accommodate all needs in Sohar, yet such coordination has not been possible to date. ¶12. (C) One final area of concern is the long-term supply of gas to the various industries that are cropping up in Sohar. The government is moving swiftly to address these concerns through international agreements. Oman is now linked to the UAE through a cross-border gas pipeline, which will assure Oman a supply of gas from Qatar once the ballyhooed Dolphin project comes on-line. Oman is also looking across the Gulf to Iran (ref B) for gas imports, most of which would be funneled through Sohar via submerged pipelines that have yet to move from theory to actual construction. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Sohar represents the most tangible evidence that diversification could succeed in Oman. While many of the projects currently underway have been discussed for the better part of a decade, the current industrialization drive in Sohar stems from a pragmatic realization that oil prices are high and the time is right. Managed well and rationally, Sohar could put Oman on the map as a major shipping and industrial hub in the Middle East. From our perspective, the massive amounts of additional American investment in Sohar will likely translate into an increase in the local American community, perhaps by several hundred families, potentially benefiting both the fledgling MABC and The American International School. Far less certain are the long-term environmental and social impacts of this massive and rapid industrialization in the heart of Oman's Batinah coast. ¶14. (U) More information on SIPC can be found at www.portofsohar.com. BALTIMORE