RUSSIA UNCONCERNED ABOUT DEMOCRACY IN VENEZUELA

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 008915 E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV VE RS SUBJECT: RUSSIA UNCONCERNED ABOUT DEMOCRACY IN VENEZUELA REF: STATE 117165 Classified By: MINISTER-COUNSELOR FOR POLITICAL AFFAIRS KIRK AUGUSTINE. REASONS: 1.4(B/D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GOR shares none of the concerns outlined in reftel regarding current political trends in Venezuela. Unless events in Caracas take a major turn for the worse, the GOR is unlikely to do anything that might jeopardize this incipient -- if still marginal -- relationship. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On July 20, POLOFF delivered reftel demarche to MFA Latin America specialist Dmitriy Yakushev, leaving talking points behind as a non-paper. When asked about his government's views on the threats to democracy in Venezuela, Yakushev focused on last year's presidential recall referendum, asserting it had passed muster with both the Organization of American States and the Carter Center. He said Chavez continued to govern within the provisions of the current constitution and according to "democratic norms." ¶3. (C) With respect to Venezuela's military expansion and arms purchases, Yakushev said that the GOR views Venezuela's creation of a 2.5 million man militia as an internal matter, adding wryly that President Chavez has stated that he fears a U.S. invasion and that the contemplated militia was intended only to defend the country against external aggression. Turning to Venezuela's arms acquisitions, he said Russia was entirely within its rights to sell Venezuela 100,000 Kalashnikov rifles, noting that Venezuela was neither a current participant in an armed conflict, nor subject to a UN arms embargo. He insisted that the deal was transparent and said Venezuela's neighbors did not seem particularly concerned. He did not mention other possible arms deals between the two countries. ¶4. (C) Yakushev said he was unaware of any evidence supporting the contention that the GOV permits foreign terrorist groups to operate within its territory or that it is supporting efforts to destabilize its neighbors. He said the GOR was not unduly concerned about setbacks to the GOV's counter-narcotics policies. ¶5. (C) There are currently no concrete plans, Yakushev said, for a high-level visit by officials of either country to the other. (Note: Chavez last visited Putin in Moscow in November 2004, his third visit to Moscow since 2001. End note.) However, the two governments have been discussing the possibility of scheduling later this year a session of their inter-governmental commission on economic and commercial relations, which is headed by a Russian Deputy PM and Venezuela's Vice President. Such a meeting remains tentative. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The GOR sees Venezuela as a cash-flush and eager customer for Russian munitions, a possible partner for Russian companies in the development of energy resources, and an additional voice intoning the mantra of a "multi-polar world." Seen through a Russian prism, trends in Caracas do not represent a cause for concern. Unless the situation in Caracas deteriorates to such an extent that maintaining close relations with Chavez carries significant international opprobrium, our concerns about developments there will likely fall on deaf ears in Moscow. VERSHBOW