Minsk Election Weekly II (December 24-30)

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SUBJECT: Minsk Election Weekly II (December 24-30)


1. This is the second in a weekly series of election-oriented
reports, providing brief items of interest related to the March
19, 2006 presidential elections.

--------------
The Candidates
--------------

All Eight Potential Candidates Registered, Now it Gets Hard


2. The Central Election Commission (CEC) registered support
groups for all eight would-be candidates. This is the first
step toward becoming a candidate. The nominees are (and size
of support group is):

Aleksandr Lukashenko (6,212 people)
Aleksandr Milinkevich (5,135)
Valery Frolov (1,152)
Sergey Gaidukevich (3,073)
Aleksandr Kozulin (3,347)
Zenon Poznyak (2,405)
Sergey Skrebets (143)
Aleksandr Voitovich (1,305)

The next, and final, step to becoming a candidate is the
collection of 100,000 signatures of support. Only registered
members of the support groups can collect signatures, and it is
illegal to distribute campaign literature during collection.
Deputy Head of the CEC Nikolay Lozovik told the press, "It is
not easy to collect 100,000 signatures. I believe there will
be much fewer contenders after this stage of the election
campaign is over."


"Pointless for Poznyak to Run"


3. CEC head Yermoshina told the press she sees no reason for
Zenon Poznyak to run for president. Even though the CEC
registered his support group, Yermoshina said she does not
think he can legally run because he has lived abroad for the
past nine years. She explained, "In 2001 the decision to let
him run was taken for political reasons... to show him the real
level of his public support. If he failed to understand it
back then, there is no point in giving him the opportunity to
participate in elections again."


Skrebets to Stand Trial on January 16


4. Presidential contender and former MP Sergey Skrebets' trial will
start January 16 in the Supreme Court. Skrebets was arrested on
May 15 on suspicion of giving a court official a USD 30,000 bribe.
He has been in pre-trial detention sine his arrest. CEC deputy
Lozovik told the press Skrebets can run in the elections as he has
not yet been convicted. However, if he won the election and was
subsequently convicted, the elections would have to be annulled.

Poznyak's Campaign Head Arrested, Home Searched


5. On December 27, Minsk police arrested Sergey Popkov, head of
Zenon Poznyak's support group and campaign, on suspicion of
attempting to pass a counterfeit US 100 dollar bill. Police
searched his apartment, but found nothing illegal. Christian
Conservative Party (Poznyak's party) deputy Yury Belenky claimed
police were more interested in looking at party information,
computer files and other political documents, than in searching for
more counterfeit money.


Milinkevich Warned Over Early Campaigning


6. On December 27, CEC official Nadezhda Kiseleva warned
Milinkevich and his campaign team against campaigning ahead of the
authorized period. Kiseleva said she had heard Milinkevich's team
was already distributing literature in several cities. Under the
Election Code, candidates can only campaign after they are
officially registered, and can only use finds provided by the CEC
for campaigning expenses. The CEC plans to register candidates
between February 12 and 21, and give each candidate BYR 66,700,000
(USD 31,000) to campaign. CEC deputy Lozovik the same day
announced, "At the moment, there is no way we could press any
sanctions on Milinkevich for starting his pre-election campaign...
If his support team gets caught doing that, they will be held
responsible to the CEC in confomity with the law... If instances
of premature cmpaigning are revealed during signature collection
the signatures collected in violation of election requirements will
be considered null and void."

--------------
Observation
--------------

Wh Will Observe?


7. CEC head Lidiya Yermoshina anounced the GOB would begin
inviting foreign obsevers in January. She said some well
known politial figures, NGO leaders, human rights activists
nd election experts would be invited, but did not rovide any
details. CEC deputy Lozovik told PolChief on December 23 that
the best election obsevers are from the CIS, "Because they
understand te peculiarities of Belarus' circumstance and the
unique advancement of Belarusian democracy." Lozoik did agree
that CIS observers always positivel assess elections in which
all other observers find serious problems. Lozvik confirmed
election observation NGO Partnershp would not be allowed to
observe the elections s it is not registered. He said there
are plenty of registered NGOs that could observe, but when
pressed could only name one, the Belarus Helsinki Committee
(which is fighting for its life in the courts).


And ODIHR?


8. On December 23, Pol Chief discussed the possibility of an
ODIHR mission with the OSCE mission deputy and with CEC deputy
Lozovik. OSCE said ODIHR hopes to send a two or three-person
needs assessment team to Minsk in early January. ODIHR does
not need an invitation to observe to send this team, but does
need tacit understanding with the CEC and MFA in order to get
visas. OSCE added that the GOB told them they had not yet
decided on inviting ODIHR, making it unlikely any ODIHR mission
could arrive in time to observe the signature collection phase.
Lozovik told Pol Chief he recommended the GOB not/not invite
ODIHR, as the OSCE lacks objectivity. However, Lozovik thought
the GOB would issue an invitation regardless.


Partnership Cannot Observe


9. Nikolay Astreika, head of the Partnership NGO, announced on
December 30 that Partnership as a group would be unable to
conduct large-scale election observation, as they had in 2004.
Astreika said the elections had been called too soon, meaning
the NGO could not conduct long-term monitoring, and they had
already failed to observe the formation of territorial election
commissions. Moreover, many activists had moved on to other
civil society activities, such as helping reduce unemployment
and improve the country's infrastructure. Astreika did not
exclude the possibility that some Partnership members would be
interested in trying to observe the elections, possibly through
registered groups. [Comment: In the 2004 elections, the two
main independent observation groups were Partnership and
Vyasna, neither of which is registered.] Perhaps not
coincidentally, Astreika was released from jail on December 29,
after spending 12 days in lock-up for organizing an
unsanctioned meeting of his NGO.


--------------
Not a Level Playing Field
--------------

Pro-State Trade Union Supports Lukashenko


10. A spokeswoman for the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus
(FTUB),the GOB-controlled union structure that claims to represent
over 95% of workers, over four million people, announced all of its
branches would unanimously support Lukashenko. [Note: In 2001,
Lukashenko's main challenger headed the FTUB. After Lukashenko won
that election, he removed his competitor and placed one of his
supporters in charge of the organization.] At a December 23
conference, FTUB's leadership further pledged to campaign for
Lukashenko, and to inform workers about Lukashenko's platform and
views. Despite this activity, FTUB Chairman Leonid Kozik told
reporters, the FTUB "has never engaged in politics."
Lukashenko Pandering for Support?


11. In the past week Lukashenko ordered that pensions would be
raised by nine percent on January 1, decreed that doctors' salaries
would increase 230% to 350%, retroactive from December 1, and vowed
to support the Catholic Church in Belarus. While all of these are
continuations of trends begun at least a year ago, it is likely
they are also intended to raise Lukashenko's support before
elections.


Minsk City Ideological Department Purged


12. On December 20, the entire staff of the ideological department
of the Minsk City government resigned for unknown reasons. They
were immediately replaced. The new head of the department, Gennady
Kurbeko, previously worked as a television commentator and in the
Presidential Administration. One independent source believes this
appointment was made in preparation for the March presidential
elections.


Almost No Opposition in Territorial Election Commissions


13. On December 28, Minsk City formed 10 election commissions,
each with 13 people. Of these 130 people, 10% are from
political parties, 30.8% from NGOs, 19.2% from worker's
collectives, and 15.4% from local government agencies.
However, the vast majority of these people are from pro-
Lukashenko groups. The NGOs listed are the Belarusian
Republican Youth Movement ("Lukamol"),the Belarusian Women's
Union and the FTUB. The parties are the pro-Lukashenko Liberal
Democratic Party, pro-regime Communist Party, the Agrarian
Party, the Social and Sports Party, and the Party of Labor and
Justice [note: these last two have no existence outside of
election cycles, when they reappear to support the regime].
Some members of the Belarusian Popular Front are the only
opposition members known to have made it onto a commission in
Minsk.


Same Story in Mogilev


14. This above story was repeated in the Mogilev regional
election commission, which includes people from the Liberal
Democratic Party, the pro-regime Communist Party, and the
Lukamol.

--------------
Miscellaneous
--------------

Boycott Support Drops


15. Backing away from his earlier calls for a boycott, Vladimir
Kolos urged other intellectuals to support Milinkevich. While
not happy with Milinkevich's efforts to win popular support,
Kolos said Milinkevich remains the strongest opposition
contender.


Twenty Percent to Vote Early/Watch for Fraud!!


16. In an interview, CEC head Yermoshina estimated 20% of
voters would cast their ballot in the five days of early
elections. She explained the CEC offers early voting for the
convenience of voters. Yermoshina also warned people not to
sign any candidate lists before December 29 ("If they come
knocking at your door earlier than that, give them the boot,
the crooks!"),and to make sure they know who's candidate list
they are signing, as "You may get deceived. They may say they
are collecting signatures in support of Lukashenko, while their
real candidate is someone else." [Comment: As head of the CEC,
Yermoshina is supposed to be neutral. However, she is strongly
partisan and in 2004 praised Lukashenko for his "elegant
victory" after every one of his candidates was elected to
parliament.]


Election in the Russian Press


17. According to Belarusian media, several Russian papers have
carried coverage of the election. Nezavisimaya Gazeta wrote
that Lukashenko's challengers were too slow to act, so most
Belarusians know nothing about most of them. The paper did
note that, "The only politician who can be an alternative to
Lukashenko and about who voters have heard something is
Milinkevich." Vremya Novosti claimed Lukashenko is campaigning
on his efforts to improve living standards, while Milinkevich
is focusing on moral values. Novie Novosti estimated that most
of the opposition candidates would not collect sufficient
signatures, citing the 2001 election when 25 contenders
announced their candidacies, but only three managed to get on
the ballot. On-line paper Gazeta SNG.ru claimed Lukashenko is
a charismatic leader who had already outmaneuvered his
opponents by calling early elections.


--------------
Quotes of the Week
--------------


18. From Lukashenko's December 26 interview with Rossisskaya
Gazeta:

On election timing: "I would have favored a July election. The
spring sowing would be over, we would have celebrated Victory
Day and Independence Day, and nothing would have been left of
the opposition."

"The opposition is telling us they are not ready [for March
elections]. What have they been doing for five years? They
are simply not ready to be in charge."

"Elections give our opposition a chance to make money."

"Until recently, our opposition has been calling France an
example of a democratic state, referring to Belarus as a
dictatorial regime. But we have never introduced a state of
emergency, which France has done recently."


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