Even Bureaucrats Want Change: Elite Poll Shows

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001556 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR INR KIEV ALSO FOR USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/15 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO SUBJECT: Even Bureaucrats Want Change: Elite Poll Shows Surprises Classified by Charge Constance Phlipot for Reasons 1.4 (B) & (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Head of the IISEPS polling service Oleg Manaev (protect) delivered his recent survey results to Ambassador on December 21. The two groups surveyed - thirty business leaders and thirty senior government officials Q responded similarly on most questions about the upcoming presidential elections, Belarus' relations with the West, the EU, and Russia, media and the overall situation in Belarus, but to varying degrees. The results indicated that although almost all of the participants were aware that Alexander Milinkevich would run against Lukashenko in the 2006 presidential elections, they still expect Lukashenko to win. Both groups would prefer EU membership over closer relations with Russia, and are against union with Russia. The business leaders and the government officials want change and felt that Belarus is proceeding in the wrong direction, but agreed that it is unlikely that an "orange revolution" like the one that happened in Ukraine would occur in Belarus. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On December 21, head of the IISEPS polling service Oleg Manaev (protect) gave Ambassador the results of his November-December survey. IISEPS polled 60 Belarusian "elites", 30 senior government employees from ministries and universities and 30 business leaders from the private sector. Manaev asked questions about the presidential elections, the European Union, domestic issues, media and Belarus' relations with Western countries and Russia. Below are the results. 2006 Presidential Elections -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Sixty percent of senior government employees and 93 percent of private sector individuals polled do not expect the 2006 presidential elections to be free or fair. While almost every participant had heard of 10+ Coalition candidate Alexander Milinkevich, few government employees and less than half of those in the private sector expect voters will support him, and most poll participants still expect Lukashenko to win the elections. ¶4. (SBU) "Do you think that the 2006 presidential election will be free and fair?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 33% 7% No 60 93 "Did you know that on October 1-2 in Minsk there was a Congress of Democratic Forces where the former vice-mayor and civil movement activist A. Milinkevich was chosen as the single candidate alternative to A. Lukashenko for the 2006 presidential elections?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 93% 100% No 7 -- "Do you think voters will support A. Milinkevich in the 2006 presidential elections?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 7% 42% No 60 23 "If the presidential elections were held tomorrow, for whom do you think the majority of the voters would vote?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- ¶A. Lukashenko 73% 48% ¶A. Milinkevich -- 23 ¶A. Kozulin -- 3 ¶A. Lebedko -- 3 Another Candidate 7 3 European Union -------------- ¶5. (SBU) More than 78 percent of those polled think Belarus should become a member of the European Union (EU) and more than two-thirds of those polled would vote for EU membership for Belarus if there were a referendum tomorrow. However, only 23 percent of senior government officials feel that the standard of living for those in new EU member countries has increased, compared to 71 percent of private sector elites. Both groups indicated they would like more information about events in EU member countries. ¶6. (SBU) "In your opinion, should Belarus become a member of the European Union?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 77% 81% No 16 16 "If there was a referendum tomorrow about Belarus entering the European Union, how would you vote?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- In favor 67% 84% Against 13 3 I would not vote 3 3 "Do you believe the EU will become a political counterweight to the US?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 23% 23% No 33 71 "On May 1, 2004, neighboring countries of Belarus (Poland, Lithuania and Latvia) became members of the EU. Do you think that the standard of living for citizens in these countries became better or worse?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Better 23% 71% No Change 47 19 Worse 7 3 "Would you like to know more about what goes on in the EU member countries and more about the activities of European organizations?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 80% 90% No 13 10 "Have you heard about the European new neighbor policy of neighbors, which guides relations between the European Union and its neighbors (including Belarus)?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 33% 77% No 67 23 How Do You Relate to the West? -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Despite the negative reporting about the West in the Belarusian state media, 97 percent of business leaders and 83 percent of government elite do not feel that the West acts with hostility to Belarus. Even though the GOB has made it more difficult for students to study and work abroad, 100 percent of private sector employees and 90 percent of state employees consider such opportunities to be positive. ¶8. (SBU) "Do you think that the West acts with hostility towards Belarus and that Belarusians should fear this? Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 7% 3% No 83 97 "In your opinion, which society is the most just?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- German 60% 42% American 13 48 Belarusian 13 3 Polish 7 -- "Belarusian citizens have the opportunity to study and receive training in European schools. What do you think about that?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- That's good 90% 100% No opinion 3 -- That's bad 7 -- "Do you have friends, colleagues or partners abroad with whom you associate?" (You can choose more than one answer.) Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes, in Russia 83% 77% Yes, in Ukraine 63 74 Yes, in the Baltic states 40 55 Yes, in Poland 40 65 Yes, in various EU countries 40 71 Yes, in the USA 23 58 Yes, in other countries 20 35 No 10 3 Inside Belarus -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Ninety-seven percent of business leaders and 64 percent of government employees feel that Belarus is proceeding in the wrong direction. A similar numbers of participants would like to change the current situation in Belarus, but less than one-fourth think that an "orange revolution" will happen in Belarus. One question found a majority of both groups approved of international calls for Belarus to become more democratic. ¶10. (SBU) "Overall, is the situation in Belarus proceeding in the right or wrong direction?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Wrong direction 64% 97% Right direction 33 -- "Which is more important right now Q to maintain the current situation in the country or to change it?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Change 63% 93% Maintain 33 7 "In your opinion, is it possible for an "orange revolution" like the one in Ukraine to happen in Belarus?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 10% 26% No 77 58 "In your opinion, how will the social-economic situation in Belarus change in the next few years?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Worsen 30% 45% No Change 47 29 Improve 23 26 "Not long ago, the EU Council of Ministers and the Parliamentary Assembly of NATO adopted a resolution calling on Belarusian authorities to respect democracy and human rights and promising to support democratic forces in our country. How do you react to that?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Positively Q 54% 90% With Indifference 33 10 Negatively 13 -- "Not long ago there was a government decree which significantly increased GOB control over the conducting of opinion polls and the publication of the results of opinion polls in the media. Do you support the introduction of such control?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- I do not support it: the 77% 100% study and formation of opinions should be free I support it: authorities 23 -- should control the study and formation of opinions Media -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Internet and Western and European media top the lists for most trusted media sources in both groups of surveyed participants. Only three percent of business leaders and 27 percent of senior state officials believe that the state media accurately portrays the activities of and life in Western countries. Eighty-one percent of private sector elite and 67 percent of government elite indicated they would like to receive more independent coverage from neighboring countries on what occurs in Belarus and the West. [Note: Manaev stressed the results showing more people than expected regularly watch Euronews. He also said that a recent poll of the Belarusian people (septel) also showed a surprising number watch Euronews regularly.] "Which type of mass media do you trust most of all?" (You can choose more than one answer.) Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Internet 57% 57% European and Western media 30 48 Belarusian independent media 13 58 Belarusian state media 23 7 Russian media 20 -- ¶12. (SBU) "In your opinion, does foreign radio accurately reflect life in Belarus?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 23% 55% No 17 -- "Would you like to regularly receive independent radio and television programs from neighboring countries (Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, and Latvia) covering events in Belarus and abroad?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 67% 81% No 20 16 "In your opinion, does the Belarusian state media accurately cover the activities of Western states and life in Western states?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes 27% 3% No 66 97 "Would you watch the TV channel "Euronews" in Russian?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Everyday 40% 52% Several times per week 20 32 Several times per month 17 6 Several times per year 10 -- I don't watch TV 13 10 Union of Belarusian Poles -------------- ¶13. (SBU) While the private sector leaders overwhelmingly fault the GOB for the conflict involving the Union of Belarusian Poles and view it as a means for the GOB to control the union, the government elite chose more diverse reasons and sources of the conflict. ¶14. (SBU) "You certainly heard about the conflict involving the Union of Belarusian Poles (UBP),which led to a sharp decline in relations between our country and Poland. In your opinion, what was the reason for this conflict?" (You may choose more than one answer.) Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- GOB wishes to keep UBP under 40% 87% its control The reason was purely 13 7 financial: the old and new leadership of the UBP did not share its money Interference of Poland and 7 -- other Western countries into the internal affairs of Belarus Ministry of Justice 3 -- determined that the UBP Congress was not properly conducted Other Reasons 3 -- "In your opinion, who is to blame for this conflict?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- GOB 50% 90% UBP Leadership 33 13 Polish authorities 20 16 European Union -- 13 USA -- 7 Travel Outside of Belarus -------------- ¶15. (SBU) All of the private sector elite have traveled to an EU country in the past five years as compared to a little more than half of the government elite. Germany, Poland, the Baltic states, and France top the lists for most traveled to countries for both groups. ¶16. (SBU) "In the past five years, have you been to an EU country?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 57% 100% No 43 -- "If you have been to an EU country in the past five years, which one did you travel to?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Germany 33% 81% Poland 23 71 The Baltic states 17 68 France 13 36 Sweden 3 29 Czech Republic 10 19 The Netherlands 3 13 Austria 7 7 Belgium -- 13 Hungary 3 10 Spain -- 10 Greece 7 -- Italy - 7 Luxembourg - 7 Slovakia 7 -- Cyprus -- 3 Denmark -- 3 USA -- 3 Russian-Belarusian Relations -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Ninety-seven percent of private sector elite and 60 percent of government elite would choose EU membership over a union with Russia. Most would abstain from voting or vote against further integration with Russia if presented with a referendum on the issue. Yet, almost two- thirds of government leaders envision Belarus being closer to Russia than to the EU in ten years, whereas the business leaders predict that the opposite situation will happen. ¶18. (SBU) "If you could choose between a Union with Russia or becoming an EU member, which would you choose?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- EU member 60% 97% Union with Russia 33 3 "It is possible that in the near future there will be referendum in Belarus and Russia, which will allow for even more integration between the two governments. How would you vote?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- In favor 37% 7% Against 43 61 I would not vote 13 29 "To whom will Belarus be closer in ten years, Russia or the EU?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- EU 33% 65% Russia Q 64 32 "In your opinion, do the Russian authorities want Belarus to enter into the Union and stop being an independent state?" Government Private Sector -------------- -------------- Yes Q 80% 67% No 7 23 Comment -------------- ¶19. (C) This poll provides a rare view of the opinions of Belarus' normally tight-lipped elite. It reveals that the private sector elite, and even second and third tier government elite, are surprisingly open to the West and dissatisfied with Lukashenko's rule. They reject union with Russia, prefer the EU, are unhappy with the path their country is taking, and many would even vote for an opposition presidential candidate. However, they are also pragmatists, not believing that things will change soon. Polls like this show there are weaknesses in Lukashenko's regime that could be exploited, and also explain why Lukashenko, to keep the people from knowing what they think, is attempting to control all opinion polling (IISEPS itself was closed in April and now is registered in Vilnius and operates underground in Belarus). PHLIPOT