Partnership Prepared to Observe Elections

C O N F I D E N T I A L MINSK 001527

SIPDIS



SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BO
SUBJECT: Partnership Prepared to Observe Elections

Ref: A) Minsk 1409 B) Minsk 1343

Classified by Ambassador George Krol for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On December 20, 2005, Poloffs met with civil
initiative Partnership deputy director Enira Bronitskaya to
inquire about the possibility of Partnership monitoring the
March 2006 presidential elections. Partnership plans to observe
the electoral process, including the signature verification
process, but it appears that the heightened state of political
repression, the group's lack of legal status, and the sooner-
than-expected election date have severely constrained the
organization's ability to provide the same level of extensive
and consistent election monitoring that they did for the 2004
parliamentary elections. Bronitskaya also confirmed that
Partnership director Nikolai Astreiko has returned to jail to
complete the remainder of his 15-day prison sentence. Meanwhile
independent pollster Oleg Manaev also expressed doubt that the
regime would allow independent groups to conduct exit polling.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) On December 20, Pol/Econ Chief and Poloff met with
civil initiative Partnership deputy director Enira Bronitskaya
to find out the extent to which Partnership would be allowed to
monitor the electoral process leading up to and including the
March 19 presidential elections and to learn more about the
recent detention by police of Partnership director Nikolai
Astreiko.

Partnership Plans to Observe Elections, If Possible
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3. (C) Bronitskaya told Poloffs that Partnership has every
intention to observe the entire electoral procedure - from
signature gathering to observing the local election commission
meetings to election monitoring on Election Day. She was not
sure, however, how many observers they will be able to field
during the electoral process. During the signature gathering
and verification stage, she expected Partnership would only be
able to deploy 100-150 monitors around the country. She had no
idea how many monitors would be able to observe central,
district, and local election commission meetings. [Note:
Bronitskaya informed Poloffs that Partnership would attempt to
secure at least one spot on one of the district election
commissions in order to receive information directly about the
election progress. There is one Central Election Commission
(CEC),around 150 district election commissions and
approximately 7,000 local election commissions. End Note.]


4. (C) Bronitskaya estimated 3,000 observers would be on hand on
Election Day. [Note: Partnership fielded 3,500 observers in the
2004 parliamentary elections. Because of GOB actions, many of
these have not volunteered to observe again. They had planned
to field 7,000 for the 2006 presidential elections, but
government interference in their work forced them to reduce this
to 5,000. Now that the elections will be held four months
earlier than expected, Partnership does not think it will be
able to find many new volunteers.] Given that Partnership is
not a registered organization -- it never had legal status, but
until October it was allowed to operate as a "civic initiative"
-- Partnership volunteers must be registered as election
observers through already registered organizations. Bronitskaya
is not confident that the authorities will allow Partnership
volunteers to gain election monitor status in this fashion.


5. (C) Despite the recent resolution which states that
independent polling institutions must receive accreditation by a
special panel of the Belarusian National Academy of Sciences in
order to release polling results, Bronitskaya was still
confident that Partnership would be able to release the results
of its observations (ref A). They can either distribute the
information through intermediaries who are registered (such as
the Belarusian Language Society),pass information to
journalists or simply post their results on the Internet.


6. (C) Pol/Econ Chief inquired about the expected level of
participation in the election by the youth. Bronitskaya stated
that a sizable portion of the youth are interested in change,
but they prefer to display this interest by supporting a
particular candidate rather than working under a non-party NGO
such as Partnership. However, Bronitskaya pointed out that many
of the Partnership volunteers are pensioners, as they are tired
of the current political situation and have little to lose.



Exit Polling also At Risk
--------------


7. (C) On December 19, Econoff spoke with Oleg Manaev, director
of IISEPS, about the prospects for exit polling. IISEPS was one
of two local polling organization subcontracted by Baltic
Gallup/IRI in October 2004 to conduct exit polling during the
parliamentary elections. Manaev said IISEPS would try to
conduct exit polling, but he was pessimistic that the regime
would allow this activity. Since 2004 IISEPS has been stripped
of its legal registration, the GOB adopted new rules to control
opinion polling, and the regime made it illegal to criticize the
country. In 2004, Manaev said authorities arrested or harassed
about 10 percent of his interviewers. Given the new conditions,
he predicted around 70 percent of them would have trouble during
exit polling for the upcoming elections. Manaev added his
interviewers are not dedicated opposition members, but mostly
students and pensioners who work for him for extra money. As
such, they are not likely to risk arrest to conduct polling.
Comment: the GOB will also most likely once again use its tame
organizations BRYM and ECOOM to conduct highly biased, pro-
Lukashenko exit polling. In the parliamentary elections, these
two groups announced the "results" of their polling, live on
state television, at 1100 Election Day.

Astreiko To Finish Remainder of Prison Sentence
-------------- --


8. (U) Bronitskaya confirmed for Poloffs that Partnership
Director Nikolai Astreiko is back in jail. Astreiko had only
served four days out of his 15-day prison sentence for
organizing an unsanctioned meeting in October before he became
ill and was sent to hospital (ref B). Now that he is healthy,
the GOB has brought him back to prison to serve the rest of his
sentence. Bronitskaya expects that he will be released on
December 27 or 28.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Although Bronitskaya tried to keep a stiff upper lip
throughout the meeting, she looked somewhat at a loss. She
repeated several times that her organization somehow will
observe the electoral process, but in the same breath she
expressed serious doubt about the quality, consistency, and
depth of their work given the organization's current
circumstances. In the past Partnership has been one of Belarus'
most impressive NGOs, consistently turning out better than
expected results. Astreiko's recent re-arrest, plus the earlier
detention of Partnership's leadership (Bronitskaya herself spent
10 days in jail) and new repressive measures by the GOB, seem to
have shaken this organization.

Krol