Minsk Obstinate on WTO

UNCLAS MINSK 001393

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PASS USTR FOR ALLGEIER AND DWOSKIN
EB/OT FOR CRAFT
USDOC FOR ITA/JACOBS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD WTRO PGOV USTR BO
SUBJECT: Minsk Obstinate on WTO

Refs: (A) Minsk 1159, (B) Geneva 2599


1. At a November 11 press conference, Belarus' MFA lashed out at
the European Union, United States and Australia for "politicizing"
Belarus' WTO membership. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhnevich, who
led the Belarusian delegation at the October 24 informal
consultations in Geneva (ref B),told the press the GOB had
provided clear and comprehensive answers to all the questions it
had been given. However, he claimed the U.S. and EU were
purposefully "stonewalling" Belarus' WTO negotiations for political
reasons. He offered to provide more information on any topic,
including the Golden Share and customs confiscations, but he "does
not have confidence that tomorrow the EU and U.S. would not present
new questions." Expressing surprise that those countries most
against Belarus joining the WTO, namely the U.S. and Australia,
have little trade with Belarus, Mikhnevich complained, "Why should
four or five countries in a 148-country organization decide who
should be a WTO member?" [Note: Post understands from ref B that
Australia was not even present at the October 24 meeting.]


Looking for Compliant Friends
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2. Despite these obstacles, Mikhnevich claimed Minsk is determined
to "fast-track" Belarusian membership. To do so Belarus will send
representatives to the December WTO Ministerial in Hong Kong to
sign bilateral agreements with friendly states. Mikhnevich also
explained Belarus would accelerate negotiations with "safe"
countries, those who have high levels of trade with Belarus or who
are unlikely to block Belarus' WTO membership. He specifically
named Armenia, Brazil, India, China, Cuba, Japan, Kyrgystan,
Taiwan, and Turkey as such countries. MFA Deputy Director of the
Directorate of Foreign Trade Anton Kudasov explained, "We will aim
to sign as many agreements as possible to prove that the minority
[U.S., EU] opinion is false." Mikhnevich also announced that
Belarus and Russia were working on an agreement that WTO accession
of one state would not make it harder for the other to join.


What, We have to Change our Legislation to Join?
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3. At the same press conference Mikhnevich and Kudasov maintained
Minsk would not allow foreign banks to open branches in Belarus,
even though this is a WTO requirement. As Kudasov explained,
"Belarusian legislation does not treat bank subsidiaries as
independent legal entities capable of bearing liabilities. They
are viewed as part of the parent bank. To make the national
legislation uniform with that of other WTO member states, we would
have to amend the national Civil Code."


4. Comment: Lukashenko likely ordered his government to gain WTO
membership for Belarus, while at the same time not letting them
make any of the reforms needed for membership. Kudasov's
explanation that Minsk is unwilling to amend its legislation to
meet WTO requirements speaks volumes about Belarus' true
willingness to do what must be done to join the WTO. Rather than
making any changes that would improve their economy, Minsk is busy
trying to sign agreements with states unlikely to raise much fuss
about the Belarusian economy, with the goal of outvoting the EU and
U.S. in the WTO (which also demonstrates their lack of
understanding in how the WTO works). The domestic angle also
cannot be discounted, that Lukashenko wants WTO membership simply
to show his is a "normal" government. In this light the GOB and
its state controlled press can be expected to keep casting the U.S.
and EU as the villains blocking Minsk's WTO aspirations.

KROL