C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MAPUTO 000692

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MZ KCOR HIV AIDS PEPFAR
SUBJECT: MOZAMBIQUE: GUEBUZA'S 100-DAY VICTORY LAP

REF: A. MAPUTO 0184

B. MAPUTO 0150
Classified By: Ambassador Helen La Lime for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (SBU) President Guebuza has spent the first 100 days in
office traveling the length of the country, bolstering
support for himself and the ruling party, Frelimo. In public
addresses he has held firm to the themes of his campaign
promise to alleviate poverty, combat corruption and eliminate
bureaucratic inefficiency. Back in Maputo some government
ministries are functioning smoothly under new management,
while others are still finding their way. In the midst of
his domestic travels, Guebuza has found the time and energy
for visits in the region and a short trip to Europe. He
presents the image of one who is extremely busy, decisive and
sure of himself. The contours of Guebuza's presidency are
still forming, however. We ought to look for ways to offer
guidance to the new government. End Summary.

From the Rovuma River to Maputo
--------------

2. (U) Guebuza's first 100 days in office have been to a
large extent spent outside the capital, criss-crossing the
country. He has paid special attention to rural populations
in the center and north who have yet to enjoy the benefits of
Mozambique's post-conflict development. On his visits he has
stressed his government's overriding concern with economic
development, particularly alleviating poverty. This goal is
reflected in the newest five-year plan (designed under the
Chissano administration), through which two-thirds of the
GRM's USD 2 billion budget is slated for poverty reduction
initiatives. His travels remind many of Samora Machel in the
early years after independence, trying to encourage a sense
of national pride and unity among the people.


3. (U) Provincial governors have been instructed to travel
outside their respective capitals so they better understand
their constituents. Guebuza's tactic of bringing into his
cabinet six former provincial govern

ors has served to
reinforce the message that he has his administration care
about people in the provinces. All of his trips and
activities, from the Rovuma river up north to Maputo in the
far south, have received lavish press coverage, yet another
throw back to the Machel era.

Consolidating Power
--------------

4. (U) During his visits Guebuza has sought to rebuild
support for the ruling Frelimo party. Voters were apathetic
in the 2004 elections -- turnout was surprisingly low,
roughly 45 percent, well below the 74 percent in the 1999
elections -- and Guebuza garnered just over 2 million votes
compared to 2.4 million for Chissano in 1999. In stop after
stop, he has made the party a central theme, stressing that
Frelimo is intent on solving the problems of the people.


5. (SBU) More challenging for Guebuza have been the
behind-the-scenes efforts to strengthen his hold within the
heart of the party. On March 4, former president Joaquim
Chissano reluctantly surrendered his position as Frelimo
party president to Guebuza. According to some observers,
Chissano stepped down only after several long and heated
discussions within Frelimo's inner circle. Retainig his post
as Frelimo Secretary General, Guebuza would appear now to
have full control over the party, but we continue to hear of
divisions within Frelimo between Guebuza and Chissano camps.

Guebuza Beats the Corruption Drum
--------------

6. (U) Guebuza has continued where he left off on the
campaign trail, pledging that his administration is serious
in its fight against corruption, bureaucratic inefficiency,
and red tape. From secondary school openings to the May Day
rally, this promise is a centerpiece of every public address
Guebuza has made since his February 2 inauguration. Some in
his cabinet have already taken the message to heart. The
Minister of Education has shown up unannounced in remote
corners of his ministry to see who were at their desks, the
Minister of Health has conducted numerous surprise
inspections of hospitals and spoken openly about poor
conditions in the sector, and the Minister of Agriculture has
tightened up regulations on the use of official vehicles.


7. (SBU) Guebuza's message to date has focused mainly on
inefficiency and petty corruption at low and mid-level rungs
of the bureaucracy. This has alienated some mid-level
bureaucrats, who have long benefited from the spoils their
state positions provide, but the message appears to be quite
popular overall. Most recently even several former ministers
have become targets of corruption investigations (septel).

Some Anxious, Others Forging Ahead
--------------

8. (C) In contrast to his whirlwind spin through the
provinces, activity in the capital has been more mixed. In
the Ministry of Agriculture, which will play a key role in
the Guebuza plans for rural development, the new directives
on vehicle and cell phone usage have caused noticeable
grumbling and dismay. USAID contacts report confusion and
low morale there. The Health Minister's combative style (he
is famous for criticizing poor performers in front of others)
has bred considerable resentment. The rearranging of half a
dozen ministries after Guebuza took over has not helped
matters. The IMF representative told us several weeks ago
that he is certain the national budget director has no idea
to which ministry he belongs, Finance or Planning.


9. (C) In contrast, though, some other ministries are showing
real promise. The Minister of Industry and Commerce has
jumped at the opportunity to move ahead toward a Trade
Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the U.S. We are
hopeful a TIFA can be signed in Washington in mid-June, quite
quickly since the U.S.-Mozambique Bilateral Investment Treaty
only came into force in March. The Energy Minister has
impressed attendees at the Ninth African Conference on Oil
and Gas, currently underway in Maputo with his knowledge and
experience. In the Foreign Ministry, the new director of the
Americas and European Directorate, former Ambassador to the
UN Carlos Dos Santos, has been readily accessible to the
Ambassador on a number of issues in the past weeks and has
helped overcome bottlenecks in other ministries. Minister of
Defense Dai, currently visiting China, has been active in
advancing key USG initiatives within the military, including
ACOTA and the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.
Vision?

--------------

10. (C) According to the IMF representative, senior officials
can repeat Guebuza's campaign speeches about fighting poverty
and eliminating corruption, but when pressed for details have
very little to offer. In his view, the Guebuza
administration has no clear vision of the way forward.
(Comment: It may be a sign that Guebuza, for the time being,
is focused on strengthening his grip on power instead of
using it, demanding discipline over initiative. It may be
because many of his senior advisors and ministers have been
chosen for their loyalty, not for their technical expertise
(ref A). The Foreign Minister, for instance, has a
background in the Frelimo party and social work but none in
diplomacy. End Comment.) The IMF rep hastens to add,
though, that technically competent deputies remain in all the
ministries.

Guebuza on the International Scene
--------------

11. (SBU) Contrary to fears that Guebuza would break from
Chissano-era policy and shun the international community to
promote Mozambicanization of the economy (ref B), Guebuza has
continued along Chissano's path. In an effort to strengthen
relations with Mozambique's neighbors and further encourage
foreign investment, since his February inauguration Guebuza
has traveled extensively in the region, including visits to
Angola, Zimbabwe, Malawi among others. Guebuza's May visit
to South Africa yielded a long-awaited visa waiver program
that has already increased trans-border commerce, while
similar visa waivers were explored in talks in Swaziland and
Botswana. Guebuza's international overtures extend beyond
the region. Guebuza attended the Pope's funeral in April,
followed by a quick trip to Brussels. In May, he sent his
Foreign Minister to Havana to reinforce Mozambique's ties
with Cuba. He is clearly looking forward to his upcoming
meeting with the President and his follow-on participation at
the Corporate Council on Africa Business Summit in Baltimore
later this month.

Quiet on the HIV/AIDS Front
--------------

12. (SBU) Apart from a few public statements, Guebuza has
said little about HIV/AIDS. He has placed capable
individuals at the helm of key government institutions, such
as the Ministry of Health and the National AIDS Council.
However, with a prevalence rate edging above 15 percent, the
disease is looming ever greater as a scourge for the people
and the economy, and his relative silence is surprising.
Even with large amounts of resources flowing into the country
for prevention and treatment, Guebuza will have to play much
more of a leadership role if his country is to make
meaningful gains battling the disease.

Comment
--------------

13. (C) It is still too early to tell where Guebuza's regime
is headed. The emphasis so far has been on shoring up
support from the populace below and ensuring loyalty at the
top. He is known to be decisive, even impulsive, yet this
does not mean that Guebuza does not listen. Everyone, it
seems, who meets with him is struck by his intelligence. The
months ahead will be a testing time for the new Guebuza
administration, as the honeymoon phase of his term wanes. We
need to watch some of the laggards, especially the weak
judicial and the agricultural sectors, to see whether and how
Guebuza will push reform. As the situation warrants, we
ought to look for ways to offer guidance and encouragement.
La Lime