2005 FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE - NOTHING LIKE THE

UNCLAS MAPUTO 000201

SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV EAGR MZ
SUBJECT: 2005 FLOODING IN MOZAMBIQUE - NOTHING LIKE THE
2000 FLOODS



1. Summary. Repeated heavy rains inundated central and
northern Mozambique in December 2004 and January 2005,
provoking floods in late January along the Zambezi river,
and raising water levels at the Cahora Bassa Dam to a
potentially dangerous level. Many people living along the
Zambezi were evacuated in advance of flooding;
infrastructure damage and crop loss were reported, but no
loss of life directly related to flooding. Water levels
have slowly receded below flood alert stage in the past
week and people are returning to their homes. Overall
national 2005 crop performance is not expected to be
adversely affected. Mozambique's wet season continues
through March, so the region bears watching for additional
heavy rainfall that could provoke futher flooding.
Widespread flooding reminiscent of the tragic 2000 floods
is not indicated. End Summary.


2. Central and northern Mozambique received near-daily
rainfall in December 2004 and January 2005, reaching over
60 cm for the two months combined in both Tete and Nampula
provinces, with Manica, Niassa, Zambezia, and Sofala
provinces not far behind. Rain inundated the Zambezi
river, bringing late January water levels in the riverside
towns of Caia and Marromeu to 5.93 meters and 5.63 meters
respectively, which caused flooding for several days in
each district. Flooding was also reported on the Miura and
Lacute rivers in Manica province during this time. The
Licungo river in Zambezia and the Pungue river in Sofala
also reached the flood alert level, but did not provoke
reported flooding. During this period the Cahora Bassa Dam
rose very close to maximum storage capacity and was
discharging water at triple its normal seasonal level in
late January. Since early February, however, rain has
diminished, waters have receded and by February 8 all
rivers had fallen to below standard flood alert levels.


3. The Mozambican Red Cross has estimated that about 19,000
families are in need of assistance due to homes and/or
agricultural lands damaged by the flood. No flood-related
deaths are indicated, although six storm-related deaths
were reported. The floods knocked many key roads in
Northern Mozambique out of service for several weeks, and
also caused the Nacala Corridor rail line to be shut down
for over a week due to erosion between Cuamba and Malema.
All major road and rail service is believed to be back in
operation at this time; it is unclear if infrastructural
damage is significant or not.


4. This year's rains have elicited a few off-hand
comparisons to the devastating floods of January-March 2000
that devastated large swaths of Maputo, Gaza, and Sofala
provinces. 2005 water levels remain threatening but show
no signs of approaching that tragic level. The 2000 floods
killed at least 700 people in Mozambique and forced the
evacuation of over 500,000 people, tens of thousands of
whom were plucked out of the rising waters by boats and
helicopters. The disaster was caused by heavy rains in
October 1999 through January 2000, followed by three major
cyclones in February and March. Flood waters remained high
for long periods of time in multiple major river systems,
permanently altering urban and agricultural landscapes;
water levels in the provincial capital of Xai-Xai remained
four meters high for nearly one month. At this point, the
only meteorological similarity between 2000 and 2005 is
heavy December-January rains, and even those rains were
lighter.


5. With two months remaining in the rainy season, post will
continue to monitor rainfall levels in the Southern Africa
region to assess potential for widespread flooding in
central and northern Mozambique. Rain levels in Southern
Mozambique will also be monitored, since the region is
suffering sub-optimal rainfall which, in the opinion of
some analysts, could more seriously hamper 2005
agricultural production.
DUDLEY