DIVISIONS IN PRESIDENT ARROYO'S COALITION IN HOUSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004962 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, INR/B NSC FOR H. MORROW E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PINS RP SUBJECT: DIVISIONS IN PRESIDENT ARROYO'S COALITION IN HOUSE POTENTIALLY THREATEN LEGISLATIVE AGENDA REF: A. MANILA 4740 ¶B. MANILA 4662 ¶C. MANILA 4140 ¶D. MANILA 3391 ¶E. 04 MANILA 3998 Classified By: Acting Pol/C Joseph L. Novak for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Tensions have spiked between Lakas, the major party in President Arroyo's coalition in the House, and KAMPI, a group of strong Arroyo loyalists. The flashpoint for the friction has been how many KAMPI members will serve on a key committee. A major source of continuing tension, however, is Constitutional change, which KAMPI is leery of, especially if proposed changes would curb Arroyo's term or powers. The latest bickering comes after several months of Lakas/KAMPI cooperation as they worked to defeat the Opposition's anti-Arroyo impeachment effort. The divisions in Arroyo's House coalition add to her problems with a recalcitrant Senate and potentially threaten her legislative agenda. End Summary. -------------- Lakas/KAMPI Ties take a Dive -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Tensions have spiked between Lakas-CMD, the major party in President Arroyo's coalition in the House of Representatives, and KAMPI (Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino or "Ally of the Filipino Citizen"),a grouping of strong Arroyo loyalists. (Note: Lakas controls about 75 seats in the House. KAMPI has about 35. Arroyo's coalition, which includes several other parties in addition to Lakas and KAMPI, has majority control of the 236-member House. End Note.) The immediate flashpoint for the tension is how many representatives on the powerful Committee on Appointments should be reserved for members of the KAMPI grouping. (Note: The Commission on Appointments is a bicameral House/Senate body, chaired by House Speaker Jose De Venecia, that confirms cabinet secretaries, ambassadors, and high-level military and police appointments. End Note.) KAMPI leaders are demanding at least two seats on the 24-seat body. De Venecia, the head of the Lakas party, has offered them only one. ¶3. (SBU) A major source of continuing tension, however, is Constitutional change. No doubt at the explicit instructions of President Arroyo and her advisers, KAMPI is extremely leery of Constitutional change proposals to create a unicameral parliamentary form of government, especially if the proposed changes would curb Arroyo's term (which ends in 2010) or her powers. KAMPI is so upset over the matter that it has withdrawn its support for De Venecia's Constitutional change proposal until the Commission on Charter Change (appointed by President Arroyo) submits its recommendations to the House in December (see Ref B). ¶4. (C) Growing dissatisfaction by KAMPI with Lakas has led some observers to speculate that there might be a KAMPI-led leadership challenge to De Venecia. Contacts have related to us that KAMPI members Congressman Luis Villafuerte or Ronaldo "Ronnie" Puno may at some point take a run at De Venecia's position as House Speaker. There are also reports that Congressman Prospero "Butch" Pichay, a Lakas member, may challenge De Venecia with KAMPI support. If any of these figures were to run against De Venecia, it would almost certainly be with Malacanang's backing and be very divisive. However, at this point, there is no confirmation that KAMPI is planning to make any such move in the immediate future, though a possible timeframe for a challenge would be when the House ends its current recess and re-convenes on November 7. -------------- Relations Had Been On Upswing -------------- ¶5. (C) The latest friction in the Lakas/KAMPI relationship comes after several months of cooperative links between the two sides as they worked together to defeat the Opposition's impeachment complaint (Ref C). When Opposition lawmakers filed impeachment charges against President Arroyo in July, Lakas and KAMPI members stood firmly by the President. Lakas members -- whose backing for the President is sometimes more nominal than actual -- refused to endorse the impeachment complaint, helping block its automatic transmittal to the Senate. This cooperation was a notable change from the partisan competition that had been the norm in relations between the two groups since 2004. (Note: Then-senator Arroyo formed KAMPI in 1997 during the run-up to her bid for the vice presidency. The group fell into relative obscurity until mid-2004 when Arroyo, fresh off her presidential victory, reinvigorated KAMPI in order to counter the growing influence of Lakas -- see Ref E.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The divisions in Arroyo's coalition in the House add to her pre-existing problems with a recalcitrant Senate and potentially threaten her legislative agenda. The next several months of business in the two bodies will be busy ones as the House prepares the budget for 2006, reviews Constitutional change proposals, and discusses comprehensive anti-terrorism legislation. Arroyo has already basically lost control of the Senate due to defections from her camp over the summer (Ref A),but her control of the House has seemed steady, especially after her coalition held together and defeated the impeachment drive in September. At this point, unless a truce in the partisanship emerges, Lakas's and KAMPI's problematic ties could potentially delay and complicate the path of key legislative items. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ JONES