OPPOSITION MOTION IN HOUSE TO RECONSIDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 004443 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/IET, INR/EAP, DS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR ASEC RP SUBJECT: OPPOSITION MOTION IN HOUSE TO RECONSIDER IMPEACHMENT FAILS; ANTI-ARROYO RALLIES IN MANILA REF: A. MANILA 4221 ¶B. MANILA 4140 ¶C. MANILA 4040 ¶D. MANILA 4019 Classified By: Acting Pol/C Joseph L. Novak for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Opposition tried to file a motion in the House on September 19 asking for a reconsideration of its recent decision to quash the impeachment complaints against President Arroyo. The effort failed, however, due to the lack of a quorum. Opposition leaders have admitted that their impeachment effort is all but over, although there may be continued efforts to get the Supreme Court to review the matter. The Opposition is sponsoring several anti-Arroyo rallies in Manila on September 21. The largest is taking place in the financial center of Makati. The rallies seem to be peaceful and orderly as of 1700 hrs. With the rainy season ending soon, the Opposition is clearly hoping to ramp up the pressure on Arroyo by taking to the streets. End Summary. -------------- Last Gasp in the House -------------- ¶2. (U) The Opposition tried to file a motion in the House on September 19 asking for a reconsideration of its recent decision to quash the impeachment complaints against President Arroyo. (Note: On September 6, the House voted 158-51 with four abstentions to accept the Justice Committee report which effectively barred the impeachment complaints -- see ref b. End Note.) The effort failed, however, due to the lack of a quorum. Only 104 of the 236 House members were present when at least half had to be in order for there to be a quorum in which business could be dealt with. House rules allow only one attempt to file a motion for reconsideration of an impeachment complaint. ¶3. (C) With the failure of their reconsideration motion, Opposition leaders have publicly admitted that their impeachment effort is all but over. They continue to complain that Malacanang failed to allow the Opposition to air its grievances. Ronnie Zamora, a well-known Opposition Congressman, told Acting Pol/C on September 21 that "all of us who are against Arroyo realize that the impeachment effort is over, but we will continue to try to remove her from power." Some in the Opposition have promised to continue to pursue legal options as a possible way to get the impeachment complaint reinstated in the House. These efforts were dealt a blow on September 13 when the Supreme Court rejected a petition claiming that the procedures used in the House to quash the Opposition's main impeachment complaint were unconstitutional. It is unclear whether the Opposition plans to file another petition with the Supreme Court. Zamora, who is also a lawyer, told Acting Pol/C that he doubted that legal avenues would work, asserting that "the courts are full of cronies of Arroyo's and will not take Opposition claims seriously." -------------- More Rallies -------------- ¶4. (SBU) One area where the Opposition continues to be active is in moving forward with "people power"-type rallies. Opposition groups, for example, are sponsoring several anti-Arroyo rallies in Manila on September 21. The largest is taking place in the financial center of Makati. The Opposition is predicting that over 30,000 people will attend this rally, but as of 1700 hrs only several thousand people were in attendance, according to Pol FSN on the scene. Key Opposition leaders are expected to be in attendance. Traffic in the Makati area has been tied up due to the rally. Leftist groups are also sponsoring two other rallies in other areas of Manila to mark the anniversary of the declaration of martial law in 1972 by Ferdinand Marcos and "to remember its victims." Large numbers of police have been deployed to monitor the protests. All of the rallies seem to be peaceful and orderly as of 1700 hrs. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The Opposition is clearly hoping to ramp up the pressure on Arroyo by taking to the streets. Arroyo's poll numbers continue to be poor and a new scandal has erupted over her government's hiring of a U.S. lobbying firm (see septel),but thus far there is no sign that the public is planning to turn out in large numbers to join street protests. The Opposition remains hopeful, however, that once the rainy season ends in the next several weeks the size of its rallies will increase, although most observers discount that possibility. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ JOHNSON