CABINET SECRETARY IN DISCUSSIONS WITH ESTRADA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003862 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, EAP/PD, INR/EAP, INR/B NSC FOR GREEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR SOCI KCOR RP SUBJECT: CABINET SECRETARY IN DISCUSSIONS WITH ESTRADA CAMP; OPPOSITION CONFIDENT ABOUT IMPEACHMENT NUMBERS? REF: A. MANILA 3697 ¶B. MANILA 3593 ¶C. MANILA 3458 ¶D. MANILA 3391 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Joseph L. Novak for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Michael Defensor, Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources, has confirmed that he has been engaged in talks with supporters of former president Estrada. The exact scope of the talks is unclear, but Defensor, claiming that he is acting on his own volition, says the talks support "national reconciliation." The Estrada camp continues to underscore that it will not cooperate unless Estrada is released from house arrest. This last condition would be politically hazardous for Arroyo to even think about and there is no indication that she is about to agree to it. In other news, a close contact has told us that the Opposition may be edging closer to the number of endorsements needed for a referral of its impeachment complaint to the Senate. Hearings into the impeachment charges continue on August 23. End Summary. -------------- Rapprochement? -------------- ¶2. (U) In August 19 remarks to the press, Secretary Defensor confirmed that he has been engaged in talks with supporters of former president Joseph Estrada. The exact scope of the talks is unclear, but Defensor -- claiming that he is acting on his own volition -- said the talks support "national reconciliation." The Estrada camp continues to underscore that it will not cooperate unless Estrada is released from house arrest. (Note: Estrada has been in jail and subsequently under house arrest since 2001. He is being tried on charges of plunder and corruption. End Note.) ¶3. (U) President Arroyo reiterated the theme of "national reconciliation" in brief remarks made in front of a large crowd gathered in Manila on August 20 in honor of Brother Mike Velarde, the founder of El Shaddai, a large Catholic group. After Velarde said he was willing "to mediate" between Arroyo and Estrada in remarks to the crowd, Arroyo went on to state: "As Brother Mike said, let's look for a formula that works and is acceptable so that we would all be united as soon as possible. As President of the Philippines, I am ready to take steps and I call on my enemies for us to unite so that our politics would not deteriorate and so that our economy would progress." Arroyo did not make any remarks specific to Estrada. She had left the stage by the time that Estrada arrived to greet Velarde. (Note: The "Sandiganbayan" Anti-Graft Court had granted Estrada permission to leave house arrest for 12 hours so that he could undergo a medical examination in Manila and attend part of the Velarde event. He was under police escort at all times. End Note.) ¶4. (C) When asked about Defensor's efforts, Malacanang has made clear that it is willing to reach out to opponents as long as "justice is not sacrificed." This appears to be a signal that Malacanang is unwilling to countenance any effort to try to release Estrada from house arrest perhaps by trying to get him bail. In an August 22 meeting with poloff, Ramon "Eki" Cardenas, an Estrada adviser, confirmed that talks were taking place between the two camps. He added that he did not think they would come to fruition because he did not believe that Malacanang would allow Estrada to get out from under house arrest. (Note: There is considerable debate as to whether Malacanang could secure Estrada's release even if it wanted to: plunder -- the most serious of the charges he faces -- is a capital and thus non-bailable offense. Estrada, nonetheless, has filed a request for bail. Defensor has since walked back comments he earlier made to the effect that perhaps Estrada could be released into someone else's recognizance, which he said might be a legal solution. End Note.) -------------- Optimism in Opposition Camp? -------------- ¶5. (C) In other news, Ronnie Zamorra, an Opposition congressman closely involved in impeachment issues, told Acting Pol/C on August 19 that the Opposition was edging closer to the number of endorsements needed for a referral of its impeachment complaint to the Senate. Zamorra asserted that the Opposition now has 74 of the 79 endorsements needed (one-third of the total House membership of 236). Zamorra predicted that the Opposition could reach the 79 figure in the next week or two "despite Malacanang's best efforts to fight us." When Acting Pol/C noted that the last Opposition announcement on the matter placed the total at about 52 (ref b),he remarked that that was the case two weeks ago, but that the opposition continues to gather signatures, including from House representatives in the President's coalition. Zamorra said he had no plans to announce the latest total until there were 79 or more signatures, asserting that if he published the names "Malacanang will only try to bribe them to retract." (Note: A local newspaper reported on August 20 that the Opposition had 67 signatures. End Note.) ¶6. (U) Zamorra confirmed that hearings into the impeachment charges would recommence on August 23. The Opposition hoped that the matter of which complaint would be reviewed could be settled at that time (ref a). (Note: The Majority wants to review a complaint filed by a private citizen, which was filed before that of the Opposition. The Opposition believes that its amended complaint must be taken up. End Note.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Trying to spring Estrada from house arrest would be politically hazardous for Arroyo even to think about. Estrada is widely and accurately seen as corrupt (even his supporters admit he played things close to the edge of the law),and civil society and good government types would rip into her unmercifully if she tried to help him out of his legal problems. In any case, there is no indication that she is about to agree to try to release him. Zamorra has made previous claims that the Opposition was close to the numbers needed for a Senate referral -- and those claims did not pan out. However, he is a well-connected contact, which is why his recent comments are worth flagging. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ JOHNSON