ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS REGION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003477 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA, DS, USIP - SOLOMON USAID FOR CDOWNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAID PREL ASEC RP SUBJECT: ELECTION CAMPAIGN IN MUSLIM AUTONOMOUS REGION IN MINDANAO HEATS UP REF: A. MANILA 3116 ¶B. MANILA 2442 ¶C. MANILA 2332 Classified By: Political Officer Timothy Cipullo for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The election campaign in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is heating up. The governor's race appears to have come down to a showdown between Zaldy Ampatuan and Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas, two well-known regional figures. Ampatuan, who is running as the candidate of Lakas, President Arroyo's party, is favored to win. Several organizations have expressed concern about fraud and have called for the elections to be postponed. Mission's observation effort is moving forward. The Charge is planning to visit Marawi, a key regional city, on August 3, while five Mission teams are slated to be in the region on August 8, election day. Mission continues to emphasize how important it is that the elections be free and fair. End Summary. -------------- ARMM Race Heats Up -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Candidates are ratcheting up their campaigns in the closing days before the ARMM elections scheduled to take place on August 8. At stake are the offices of ARMM governor, vice governor, and all 24 seats in the ARMM Regional Legislative Assembly. The gubernatorial race is now down to two serious contenders, following the announcement on July 26 by opposition candidate Guimid Matalam that he was joining President Arroyo's Lakas-CMD Party and dropping out of the race. Matalam went on to endorse Lakas' favored candidate, Zaldy Ampatuan. With Matalam's withdrawal, the campaign becomes a showdown between Ampatuan, the mayor of Shariff Aguak, and Ibrahim "Toto" Paglas, a well-known businessman. Several other candidates are running as independents, though observers believe none of them has the backing to make a serious run at the governorship. ¶3. (C) In a July 28 meeting, Lito Banayo, a political assistant to Opposition Senator Panfilo Lacson, told Acting Pol/C that the Opposition was very upset at Matalam's decision "to defect." The race now has no candidate directly linked with the Opposition, he claimed, "which was unfortunate for Philippine democracy." He accused the government of "buying off" Matalam. 
 -------------- Calls for Postponement Grow -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Several organizations have expressed concern about fraud and have called for the elections to be postponed. On July 28, for example, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL),an election watchdog group, urged Congress and the GRP's Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to postpone the elections, citing concerns over fraud and the need to ensure "that the necessary safeguards for the conduct of clean elections are in place." NAMFREL officials recently met with members of the ARMM Business Council, which has also called for a postponement of the election due to concerns over allegations of "vote padding" in the region. Calls for postponement of the ARMM elections have been growing since a group of ARMM politicians, led by current Governor Parouk Hussin, filed a petition urging the Supreme Court to issue a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) that would delay the holding of the elections. The petition, which was filed in early July, claimed that the elections were not being carried out in accordance with the Constitution. (Note: Contacts at the Supreme Court informed poloff that the Court plans to issue a ruling on the request for the TRO soon. End Note.) ¶5. (SBU) COMELEC chairman Benjamin Abalos, however, has continued to publicly maintain that his organization will be able to hold credible elections and he has insisted that the elections will proceed on schedule. Other Mission contacts have also asserted that it is now too late to postpone the elections and have predicted that they will take place as scheduled on August 8. -------------- Mission Observation Effort -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Mission's election observation effort is moving forward. Mission has already sent pre-election teams to Marawi, Basilan, and Sultan Kudarat municipality (outside Cotabato City) to gauge local opinion and preparations for the August 8 polls. Charge will visit Marawi City, a particularly important Muslim-dominated area, on August 3 to speak with local voters and government officials. He will also meet with Brigadier General Benjamin Dolorfino, the Philippine military officer responsible for security in the region for the period of the elections. During the polling and follow-on counting of the hand-written ballots on August 8th and 9th, Mission plans to dispatch five teams to the following four sites: Basilan, Marawi, Cotabato City (two teams),and Sultan Kudarat. The International Federation for Election Systems (IFES),working through USAID, will also field election observers focused on the island provinces of Basilan, Jolo, and Tawi Tawi. We are also coordinating our observation efforts with those of the embassies of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the UK. Mission continues to work very closely with local police regarding security for the observation effort. ¶7. (C) So far, conversations with a wide spectrum of voters during pre-election visits has revealed a general mood of pessimism about the potential for vote buying and violence. Many ARMM residents also expressed apathy, asserting that Ampatuan's reputed close links with Malacanang made the election results a foregone conclusion. (Note: Historically, candidates that were linked with the President's party have won the governorship by a landslide in every ARMM election, amid widespread charges of vote rigging. End Note.) Another factor contributing to voter apathy is the perception that neither Ampatuan nor Paglas (who are ethnic Maguindinaoans) will adequately represent the interests of other ethnic groups in the ARMM. Nonetheless, based on the observer visits, election officials continue to make preparations at voting precincts and counting centers. The local military commander in Basilan, Brigadier General Reymundo Ferrer, told PA officer that he expects election day to be "quiet." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) There had been significant hope that the ARMM elections could serve as a model for the Philippines given its poor track record in past elections, including those in May 2004. As noted, however, worries over fraud and violence have led to reduced expectations. Nonetheless, Mission, at every opportunity, continues to emphasize how important it is that the elections be free and fair. Meanwhile, our on-the-ground observation efforts are helping underscore the point that the international community is closely watching the situation. These efforts, hopefully, will help create a more favorable environment come August 8. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ MUSSOMELI