PRO-ARROYO SUPPORTERS HOLD LARGE RALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 003290 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PREL ASEC RP SUBJECT: PRO-ARROYO SUPPORTERS HOLD LARGE RALLY REF: A. OPS CENTER - MANILA 07-16-05 TELECON ¶B. MANILA 3231 ¶C. MANILA 3202 ¶D. MANILA 3187 Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Media and police estimate that roughly 100,000 people attended a pro-President Arroyo rally on July 16 in Manila. Most rally participants appeared to be provincial- or local-level government workers and their families bused to the rally. In other news related to the ongoing political turbulence, a bill is being prepared in the House that would create a "truth commission" to look into allegations of fraud in last year's elections. In addition, Arroyo's Communications Director, Silvestre Afable, has resigned amid accusations by Malacanang sources that he was ineffective. Few observers took the large turnout for the July 16 rally seriously, seeing it as another sign that the GRP and the opposition are engaged in a tit-for-tat game of "one-upmanship" as they try to show that they have public support. End Summary. -------------- Big Pro-Arroyo Rally -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Media and police estimate that roughly 100,000 people attended a pro-President Arroyo rally on July 16. According to Pol FSN who observed the rally, most participants appeared to be provincial- or local-level government workers and their families bused to the rally, and there was little sign of genuine emotion. El Shaddai, the popular charismatic Catholic religious movement, along with other influential allies of the President, staged the rally as a means of bolstering Arroyo amid recent scandals and to counter recent rallies sponsored by the opposition (ref B). The July 16 event was staged near Embassy Manila in Rizal Park. Manila Mayor Lito Atienza, a staunch Arroyo supporter, led the ceremonies, which included a series of tributes to the local politicians in attendance at the rally and several prayers. There were also some dancing and singing acts. Arroyo herself did not attend the gathering which, according to Atienza, was primarily meant as a show of support for the rule of law and to show a strong popular rejection of any extra-constitutional attempts to remove Arroyo from the presidency. ¶3. (U) In the meantime, protests against the President continued in the past several days as leftist groups held small "mosquito" rallies in Manila and elsewhere. A group of computer programmer hackers called the "e-patriots" claimed over the weekend that it would step up attacks on governmental websites as a form of "virtual protest." Opposition forces are also gearing up for the next big anti-Arroyo event which is scheduled to coincide with Arroyo's annual State of the Nation address (SONA) on July ¶25. -------------- A Truth Commission? -------------- ¶4. (C) In other news related to the ongoing political turbulence, a bill is being prepared in the House that would create a "truth commission" to look into allegations of fraud during the May 2004 elections. Pro-Arroyo legislators Rep. Antonio Cuenco and Rep. Roque Ablan are reportedly set to file the bill, which would establish a 21-member commission headed by the current president of the Catholic Bishop's Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) (refs B, C). Cuenco stated: "We believe that the best way to answer the question on who really won the election is to open and count all the election returns" and for that work "to be done by the new and impartial commission." Malacanang has come out in general support of the proposal. ¶5. (C) The proposed bill has engendered a mixed reaction from the opposition. Opposition legal adviser Harriet Demetriou told poloff on July 13 that Susan Roces, a key opposition leader, had supported the concept of a truth commission during recent meetings with Catholic leaders. However, opposition Senator Alfredo Lim told Acting Pol/C on July 13 that he favored an impartial investigation into the election, but was concerned that the "devil will be in the details" of exactly how such a commission is formed and what sort of mandate it has. Opposition Senator Aquilino Pimentel opposes the proposal. Pimentel told poloff on July 15 that the proposal would be used as a "delaying tactic" by administration supporters trying to stave off impeachment or the President's resignation. -------------- Communications Chief Steps Down -------------- ¶6. (C) Arroyo's Communications Director Silvestre Afable has resigned from his Cabinet-level position amid accusations by Malacanang sources that he was ineffective. Afable will continue his work as Chairman of the GRP's Peace Negotiating Panel with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Malacanang Political Affairs Secretary Gabriel "Gabby" Claudio told Acting Pol/C recently that there were many at Malacanang who had complained about Afable, asserting that his media strategy to defend Arroyo was ineffective. Waldo Flores, the Deputy Executive Secretary at Malacanang, told acting Pol/C on July 15 that he was personally upset that the President's "communications strategy was failing her" and that her poll numbers were down, although he did not mention Afable per se. Media reports suggested that Afable was unhappy at his post after repeated clashes with another close adviser to Arroyo -- Overseas Development Assistance Chief Marita Jimenez -- on the implementation of an overall communications plan. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Few observers took the large turnout for the July 16 rally seriously, seeing it as another sign that the GRP and the opposition are engaged in a tit-for-tat game of "one-upmanship" as they try to show that they have public support. As noted, July 16 rally participants showed little sign of genuine emotion, which was also the case with participants in the July 13 rally held by the opposition in the Makati business district (ref B). Overall, most observers do not believe that the current political situation lends itself to the sort of large "people power" displays that changed politics here in 1986 and 2001. If the political and economic situation deteriorates down the line, however, then rallies could become more rambunctious and threatening to the government. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ MUSSOMELI