CATHOLIC BISHOPS' STATEMENT BUYS ARROYO MORE TIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 003187 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL SOCI RP SUBJECT: CATHOLIC BISHOPS' STATEMENT BUYS ARROYO MORE TIME REF: A. MANILA - OPS CENTER 07-10-05 TELECON ¶B. MANILA 3167 ¶C. MANILA 3163 ¶D. MANILA 3161 ¶E. MANILA 3154 ¶F. MANILA 3153 Classified By: Political Officer Andrew McClearn for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: According to political contacts, the July 10 statement by the Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines has bought President Arroyo more time by not explicitly calling for her resignation. In a brief radio address on July 10, Arroyo welcomed the statement and said she planned to re-focus on her substantive agenda. The opposition continues to demand Arroyo's resignation and is planning more rallies. Although Arroyo has gained some breathing room, she remains under pressure and the political controversy is set to continue into the near-term at the very least. End Summary. -------------- CBCP's Statement -------------- ¶2. (C) The consensus view of political contacts is that the July 10 statement by the Catholic Bishops' Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) has bought President Arroyo more time by not explicitly calling for her resignation (ref B). Congressman Gilberto Teodoro, who is pro-Arroyo, told poloff late July 10 that the CBCP could easily have undermined Arroyo if it had called for her to leave office immediately, as many other well-known figures and organizations have recently done (reftels). By not doing so, he said, the Church had given her time to try to explain herself. Ben Evardone, the Governor of Eastern Samar and the head of an organization of local officials, commented: "We hope now that the Catholic Church has spoken, (Arroyo and the government) can proceed to the more urgent task of nation building." Benito Lim, a well-known political commentator at the University of the Philippines, stated: "It will give her enough time to organize and dissipate the power of the opposition. In terms of boxing, this round went to Arroyo, but she has not won the battle yet." ¶3. (C) Teodoro also opined that the CBCP's statement represented a "paradigm shift" because the Church was showing a newfound inclination not to involve itself in political matters. In a July 9 meeting held before the CBCP statement was issued, Ricardo Cardinal Vidal accurately predicted to 
Acting Pol/C that the CBCP as a whole would decide not to ask Arroyo to resign in explicit terms. (Note: Mission has heard reports that Vidal remains close to opposition figures and is no fan of Arroyo's, but he has never made public any personal views on the current situation. End Note.) Explaining this posture, he said the Church no longer wanted to be "a political arbiter," but instead wanted to focus on its "pastoral duties." This, Cardinal Vidal said, was unlike in past years when the Church was heavily influenced by (the now deceased) Cardinal Sin. Bishop of Antique Romulo de la Cruz also told Acting Pol/C on July 9 that the Church "does not aim to assist Arroyo or not...What we want is to be good pastors to our flock and that means focusing ourselves on faith, not politics." -------------- Arroyo Welcomes Statement -------------- ¶4. (U) In a brief audiotaped address delivered late July 10 on national TV and radio, Arroyo welcomed the CBCP's statement and said she planned to re-focus on her substantive agenda. Arroyo said, in part, "I appreciate their (the bishops') collective voice of moderation and temperance in this time of soul-searching." Arroyo repeated her desire to move forward and focus on the economy, and said her administration wanted to work closely with the Catholic Church and civil society in order to "build a better quality of life for the people of the Philippines and to put an end to the political bickering that is causing so much harm to our nation." She pledged to do "everything within (her) power to earn (the people's) trust and support." ¶5. (U) Malacanang officials spent the weekend defending the President. At a July 9 midday press conference carried live by most TV stations and many radio stations, Cabinet members -- including Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, Secretary for Political Affairs Gabriel "Gabby" Claudio, and Environment Secretary Mike Defensor -- strongly criticized the group of former Cabinet officials who called for Arroyo to resign on July 8. Defensor accused the former Cabinet officials and Senate President Franklin Drilon -- of "betrayal" and of "conspiring to overthrow the Arroyo administration." Claudio lamented that the former Cabinet members had resorted to what he said was "disparagement" of the President in order to "assert their own political views." Ermita characterized the ongoing political controversy as "more political noise in Manila," and asserted that Arroyo still enjoyed overwhelming support in both the Visayan and Mindanao regions of the country. Claudio and Defensor reiterated a July 8 call by President Arroyo that asked opponents to refer complaints against her to Congress where legislators could choose to impeach her for any alleged offenses. -------------- Opposition's Next Steps -------------- ¶6. (C) The opposition continues to demand Arroyo's resignation and is planning more rallies. Teodoro "Teddy" Casino, a leftist congressman, told poloff July 11 that the opposition would continue to demand that Arroyo either be impeached or resign. Father Joe Dizon, a left-wing priest, separately promised that the opposition would "redouble its efforts" to turn out a large crowd at a planned July 13 rally in the central Manila business district of Makati. Casino claimed that turnout at the coming rallies could be significantly increased if Makati Business Club (MBC) member companies gave employees time off and encouraged them to attend opposition rallies. (Note: The MBC on July 8 asked the President to step down. End Note.) Opposition figure Horatio "Boy" Morales told the media that the opposition's goal was to get one million protesters in place on July 13. Renato Reyes, a militant leftist organizer, however, commented that he thought that the rally might attract an estimated 50,000 people. (Note: No rally held so far during this controversy has exceeded 10,000 people. End Note.) Meanwhile, Gregorio "Ka Roger" Rosal, the spokesman of the New People's Army (NPA),announced over the radio on July 10 that the NPA would "intensify its armed revolution in the countryside" in order "to support the planned mass actions" calling on Arroyo to resign. So far, there are no signs of an uptick in NPA activity. ¶7. (SBU) Several groups have newly joined the calls for Arroyo to step down. University groups including student councils from the University of the Philippines, Ateneo University, and the Polytechnic University of the Philippines said she should leave office or face "people power" protests. The Association of Major Religious Superiors of the Philippines, an influential group of activist Catholic priests and nuns, issued a statement on July 8 asking the President to resign. The Rebolusyonaryong Alyansang Makabansa (RAM) movement, an opposition group consisting of a small number of active and retired members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP),criticized all politicians in a July 10 statement and threatened to intervene if the Constitution were not upheld. In the statement, RAM called on all politicians to follow the rule of law and, if necessary, "allow resignation or impeachment to take place." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) July 8 was a rocky day for Arroyo to put it mildly. The rapid fire announcements by the former Cabinet members, former President Aquino, Senate President Drilon, the Makati Business Club, etc., asking her to go was devastating. On the plus side for Arroyo, however, was former President Ramos's decision to appear at Malacanang July 8 and publicly state that she should not resign -- and the CBCP's well-publicized statement. Although Arroyo has gained some breathing room, she remains under pressure and the political controversy seems set to continue well into the near-term at the very least. Mission will continue to stress to Filipinos the need for accountability and the rule of law, and underscore the USG's strong opposition to any extra-constitutional or extra-legal moves. Septel will review continued turbulence on the economic front. Visit Embassy Manila's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/ MUSSOMELI